← Smart money
0xc86d…dcbc
ProfitableEdge
+32.8pp
ROI
+126%
Win rate
57% @ 24.2¢
Brier
0.275
Resolved
142
Avg size
$52
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 14% (3/21) | +132% | 21 |
| Other | 17% (1/6) | -60% | 6 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Sports21 bets
- Hit rate
- 14% (3/21)
- ROI
- +132%
- Other6 bets
- Hit rate
- 17% (1/6)
- ROI
- -60%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
14% hit · 4/28- Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
- Ciryl Gane$2.7k @ 49.9¢
- Netherlands$81 @ 59.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 2.2¢
- Yes$48 @ 0.8¢
- Yes$309 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
- Mauricio Ruffy$24 @ 27.0¢
- Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$308 @ 8.3¢
- Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$146 @ 1.3¢
- Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$21 @ 0.5¢
- Yes$11 @ 18.0¢
- Yes$26 @ 0.3¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 19.0¢
- Dan Hooker$22 @ 18.0¢
- No$74 @ 37.0¢
- Yes$24 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$21 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$13 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$51 @ 1.2¢
- Yes$10 @ 0.4¢
- Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | Crypto | No | $2.8k | 93.0¢ |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Politics | No | $1.1k | 92.3¢ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | Crypto | No | $860 | 71.3¢ |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Politics | No | $704 | 88.0¢ |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Politics | No | $639 | 83.5¢ |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Crypto | Yes | $600 | 66.7¢ |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Crypto | Yes | $453 | 75.5¢ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | Crypto | No | $300 | 75.0¢ |
| Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? | Crypto | No | $228 | 91.2¢ |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Crypto | Yes | $225 | 60.4¢ |
| Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Crypto | No | $154 | 77.0¢ |
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Crypto | No | $77 | 44.0¢ |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Crypto | Yes | $51 | 26.2¢ |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Crypto | No | $20 | 20.3¢ |
- No$2.8k @ 93.0¢
- No$1.1k @ 92.3¢
- No$860 @ 71.3¢
- No$704 @ 88.0¢
- No$639 @ 83.5¢
- Yes$600 @ 66.7¢
- Yes$453 @ 75.5¢
- No$300 @ 75.0¢
- No$228 @ 91.2¢
- Yes$225 @ 60.4¢
- No$154 @ 77.0¢
- No$77 @ 44.0¢
- Yes$51 @ 26.2¢
- No$20 @ 20.3¢