← Smart money
0xc851…cd2a
ProfitableEdge
+9.0pp
ROI
+16%
Win rate
35% @ 25.6¢
Brier
0.229
Resolved
1298
Avg size
$542
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 36% (5/14) | +17% | 14 |
| Politics | 0% (0/3) | -100% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 50% (1/2) | -98% | 2 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +224% | 1 |
- Other14 bets
- Hit rate
- 36% (5/14)
- ROI
- +17%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/3)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -98%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +224%
Track record
35% hit · 7/20- Yes$9.5k @ 28.2¢
- Yes$17.7k @ 30.4¢
- Yes$40.0k @ 9.4¢
- No$99.5k @ 70.7¢
- Yes$99.6k @ 33.9¢
- No$37.9k @ 30.8¢
- No$11.7k @ 27.5¢
- Yes$19.3k @ 52.2¢
- Yes$16.8k @ 12.2¢
- No$68.5k @ 28.5¢
- No$862 @ 54.7¢
- No$93.2k @ 34.5¢
- Yes$91.1k @ 22.4¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 67.3¢
- No$208 @ 62.0¢
- No$6.9k @ 63.8¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 0.7¢
- Yes$82.9k @ 37.3¢
- Yes$3.0k @ 1.5¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 24.1¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Geopolitics | Yes | $146.4k | 13.4¢ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Politics | Yes | $51.7k | 25.2¢ |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $23.0k | 50.5¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $16.7k | 14.4¢ |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $2.3k | 12.2¢ |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? | Politics | No | $568 | 95.2¢ |
| Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? | Culture | Yes | $20 | 29.0¢ |
- Yes$146.4k @ 13.4¢
- Yes$51.7k @ 25.2¢
- Yes$23.0k @ 50.5¢
- Yes$16.7k @ 14.4¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 12.2¢
- No$568 @ 95.2¢
- Yes$20 @ 29.0¢