0xc81c…e454

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc81c1df1f183e1b137119e590e9d7b64e805e454
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.7pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

54% @ 46.4¢

Brier

0.153

Resolved

998

Avg size

$70

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (121/280)	+4%	280
Politics	45% (14/31)	+14%	31
Tech	67% (10/15)	+12%	15
Crypto	67% (6/9)	+51%	9
Geopolitics	20% (1/5)	-60%	5
Sports	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Business	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+107%	1

Other280 bets
Hit rate
43% (121/280)
ROI
+4%
Politics31 bets
Hit rate
45% (14/31)
ROI
+14%
Tech15 bets
Hit rate
67% (10/15)
ROI
+12%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+51%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-60%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+107%

Track record

44% hit · 153/347

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?	Yes	$14	69.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	Yes	$50	15.0¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$3.8k	87.1¢	Won
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?	No	$3	2.6¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$111	78.1¢	Lost
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	No	$158	87.7¢	Won
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?	Yes	$751	89.0¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$34	34.0¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	No	$102	42.8¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?	Yes	$24	79.0¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$500	79.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?	No	$35	10.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$199	82.0¢	Won
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?	Yes	$30	34.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$850	85.0¢	Won
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	$224	88.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?	No	$730	62.6¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	$10	48.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$80	40.2¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	No	$39	70.2¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$163	54.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$120	30.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	Yes	$17	35.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?	Yes	$10	35.0¢	Lost
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$214	66.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$100	50.0¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$99	39.2¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$7	3.5¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$43	6.3¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?	Yes	$36	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?	No	$33	12.0¢	Lost
Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	$8	68.1¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	$34	28.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	Yes	$20	66.0¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	$80	76.4¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$1.1k	82.5¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$118	12.8¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?	Yes	$40	8.0¢	Lost
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	$32	32.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?	No	$307	44.6¢	Won
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?	Yes	$20	6.4¢	Lost
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$11	11.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?	Yes	$10	54.0¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?	Yes	$15	67.8¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$670	83.9¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$4.1k	86.4¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	$30	75.0¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?	No	$53	13.2¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Lost

Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?Won
Yes$14 @ 69.0¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Lost
Yes$50 @ 15.0¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$3.8k @ 87.1¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Lost
No$3 @ 2.6¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$111 @ 78.1¢
Will Base launch a token in 2025?Won
No$158 @ 87.7¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Won
Yes$751 @ 89.0¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?Lost
No$102 @ 42.8¢
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Won
Yes$24 @ 79.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$500 @ 79.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?Lost
No$35 @ 10.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$199 @ 82.0¢
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?Won
Yes$30 @ 34.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$850 @ 85.0¢
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?Won
No$224 @ 88.3¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?Won
No$730 @ 62.6¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 48.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$80 @ 40.2¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Won
No$39 @ 70.2¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$163 @ 54.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$120 @ 30.0¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Won
Yes$17 @ 35.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 35.0¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$214 @ 66.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$100 @ 50.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$99 @ 39.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.5¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$43 @ 6.3¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Lost
No$1 @ 5.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?Won
Yes$36 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Lost
No$33 @ 12.0¢
Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?Won
Yes$8 @ 68.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Lost
Yes$34 @ 28.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 66.0¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
Yes$80 @ 76.4¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 82.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$118 @ 12.8¢
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?Lost
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?Won
No$32 @ 32.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?Won
No$307 @ 44.6¢
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$20 @ 6.4¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 54.0¢
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Won
Yes$15 @ 67.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$670 @ 83.9¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$4.1k @ 86.4¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Won
No$30 @ 75.0¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Lost
No$53 @ 13.2¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$2.2k	91.8¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$716	32.4¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Tech	No	$672	76.3¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$450	70.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$417	17.3¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$238	84.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$224	25.9¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$183	70.1¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$90	68.8¢
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$81	10.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$62	53.1¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$42	6.4¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$39	39.0¢
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$33	65.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$20	58.0¢

Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$2.2k @ 91.8¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$716 @ 32.4¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
No$672 @ 76.3¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$450 @ 70.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$417 @ 17.3¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$238 @ 84.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$224 @ 25.9¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$183 @ 70.1¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$90 @ 68.8¢
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?Politics
Yes$81 @ 10.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
Yes$62 @ 53.1¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$42 @ 6.4¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
Yes$39 @ 39.0¢
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?Crypto
No$33 @ 65.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
Yes$20 @ 58.0¢