0xc6dd…4b9f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.1pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

62% @ 54.8¢

Brier

0.103

Resolved

2612

Avg size

$723

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	63% (37/59)	+7%	59
Other	70% (31/44)	+28%	44
Tech	50% (9/18)	+20%	18
Geopolitics	71% (5/7)	+22%	7
Sports	50% (2/4)	+13%	4
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+93%	3
Science	100% (1/1)	+34%	1

Politics59 bets
Hit rate
63% (37/59)
ROI
+7%
Other44 bets
Hit rate
70% (31/44)
ROI
+28%
Tech18 bets
Hit rate
50% (9/18)
ROI
+20%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+22%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+13%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+93%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+34%

Track record

64% hit · 87/136

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$995	67.1¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$163	57.6¢	Lost
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	No	$4.4k	88.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$250	82.9¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$234	23.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$57.9k	88.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$45.2k	30.7¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$3.0k	75.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$392	5.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$3.9k	60.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$1.3k	29.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$4.0k	22.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.5k	65.8¢	Won
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$658	70.2¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$5.1k	87.3¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$611	19.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$52.9k	84.4¢	Won
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$28.9k	86.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$723	0.9¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	83.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$15.6k	54.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$4.0k	71.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$7.0k	45.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	0.7¢	Lost
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$28.9k	86.0¢	Won
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$13.0k	75.4¢	Won
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?	Yes	$20.7k	83.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$44.3k	40.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$17.8k	89.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$2.4k	80.0¢	Won
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	$12.4k	74.8¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$49.3k	82.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$429	25.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$2.7k	86.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$18	27.2¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	21.9¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$56	6.8¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$28.9k	66.1¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$1.6k	23.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$13.4k	76.9¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$2.4k	80.7¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$290	9.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$46.9k	87.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$7.1k	54.7¢	Won
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?	Yes	$9	0.7¢	Lost
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$2.7k	59.6¢	Won
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	$8.6k	45.7¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$2.4k	34.2¢	Won
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	No	$25.0k	72.8¢	Won
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	$55.0k	87.1¢	Won

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$995 @ 67.1¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$163 @ 57.6¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Won
No$4.4k @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$250 @ 82.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$234 @ 23.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$57.9k @ 88.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$45.2k @ 30.7¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 75.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$392 @ 5.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 60.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 29.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.0k @ 22.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 65.8¢
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$658 @ 70.2¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$5.1k @ 87.3¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$611 @ 19.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$52.9k @ 84.4¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$28.9k @ 86.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$723 @ 0.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 83.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$15.6k @ 54.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.0k @ 71.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$7.0k @ 45.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 0.7¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
No$28.9k @ 86.0¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$13.0k @ 75.4¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?Won
Yes$20.7k @ 83.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$44.3k @ 40.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$17.8k @ 89.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$2.4k @ 80.0¢
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?Won
Yes$12.4k @ 74.8¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$49.3k @ 82.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$429 @ 25.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$2.7k @ 86.2¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$18 @ 27.2¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 21.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$56 @ 6.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$28.9k @ 66.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$1.6k @ 23.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$13.4k @ 76.9¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$2.4k @ 80.7¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$290 @ 9.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$46.9k @ 87.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$7.1k @ 54.7¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.7¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 59.6¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Lost
No$8.6k @ 45.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Won
No$2.4k @ 34.2¢
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$25.0k @ 72.8¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Won
Yes$55.0k @ 87.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$75.7k	89.6¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$70.1k	92.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$56.6k	92.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$35.2k	88.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$29.3k	82.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$23.0k	80.0¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$11.1k	96.2¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$8.4k	84.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$8.1k	81.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$7.8k	96.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$5.3k	70.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	Tech	No	$4.2k	89.0¢
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$3.7k	89.1¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$3.2k	87.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Politics	No	$2.8k	80.8¢
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	Tech	No	$1.8k	85.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026?	Tech	No	$1.4k	89.5¢
Anduril IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$1.2k	87.7¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.1k	87.0¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Tech	No	$933	75.5¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$534	59.6¢
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?	Tech	No	$400	90.3¢
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$124	67.7¢
Will Lindsay Clancy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	Tech	No	$109	34.0¢
Will JUUL relaunch Mango flavor by 2027?	Tech	No	$104	88.9¢
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Science	Yes	$50	34.0¢
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$3	52.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1	40.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$75.7k @ 89.6¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$70.1k @ 92.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$56.6k @ 92.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$35.2k @ 88.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$29.3k @ 82.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$23.0k @ 80.0¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$11.1k @ 96.2¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$8.4k @ 84.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$8.1k @ 81.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$7.8k @ 96.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$5.3k @ 70.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?Tech
No$4.2k @ 89.0¢
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?Business
No$3.7k @ 89.1¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Tech
Yes$3.2k @ 87.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Politics
No$2.8k @ 80.8¢
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?Tech
No$1.8k @ 85.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026?Tech
No$1.4k @ 89.5¢
Anduril IPO before 2027?Business
No$1.2k @ 87.7¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$1.1k @ 87.0¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?Tech
No$933 @ 75.5¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$534 @ 59.6¢
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?Tech
No$400 @ 90.3¢
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$124 @ 67.7¢
Will Lindsay Clancy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?Tech
No$109 @ 34.0¢
Will JUUL relaunch Mango flavor by 2027?Tech
No$104 @ 88.9¢
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Science
Yes$50 @ 34.0¢
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$3 @ 52.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 40.0¢