0xc5a3…883a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc5a3b3c986058c3f2ba7f4332bbfcced9b10883a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-12.3pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

18% @ 30.6¢

Brier

0.133

Resolved

175

Avg size

$69

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (10/20)	+16%	20
Politics	67% (4/6)	+27%	6
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	+23%	3
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+34%	1

Other20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
+16%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+27%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+23%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+34%

Track record

53% hit · 16/30

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$300	70.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$100	14.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	Yes	$158	49.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	$230	55.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$430	18.6¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$123	59.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	Yes	$879	32.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$303	74.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$123	86.5¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$230	74.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$1000	65.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$1.6k	56.8¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$200	11.9¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	$323	86.0¢	Won
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	No	$553	41.6¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$323	68.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?	Yes	$154	12.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	$161	28.6¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$486	56.8¢	Won
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	No	$543	71.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$605	75.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	No	$323	33.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$880	60.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31?	Yes	$100	9.9¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$123	81.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	No	$151	14.9¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	$323	68.7¢	Won
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	No	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$223	23.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	$1000	85.0¢	Won

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 70.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$100 @ 14.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?Lost
Yes$158 @ 49.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$230 @ 55.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$430 @ 18.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$123 @ 59.0¢
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?Won
Yes$879 @ 32.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$303 @ 74.4¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$123 @ 86.5¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$230 @ 74.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$1000 @ 65.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$1.6k @ 56.8¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$200 @ 11.9¢
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Won
No$323 @ 86.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?Lost
No$553 @ 41.6¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$323 @ 68.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?Lost
Yes$154 @ 12.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?Lost
No$161 @ 28.6¢
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$486 @ 56.8¢
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$543 @ 71.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$605 @ 75.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
No$323 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$880 @ 60.7¢
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 9.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
No$123 @ 81.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?Lost
No$151 @ 14.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Won
No$323 @ 68.7¢
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 12.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$223 @ 23.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
No$1000 @ 85.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Politics	No	$7.0k	75.1¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Politics	No	$2.5k	70.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	—	No	$594	81.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$428	86.9¢
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$353	77.2¢
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$323	93.6¢
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$279	42.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	No	$229	71.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$30	54.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?	—	Yes	$0	23.0¢

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Politics
No$7.0k @ 75.1¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?Politics
No$2.5k @ 70.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?—
No$594 @ 81.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$428 @ 86.9¢
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?Geopolitics
No$353 @ 77.2¢
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30?Geopolitics
No$323 @ 93.6¢
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$279 @ 42.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
No$229 @ 71.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?Politics
Yes$30 @ 54.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?—
Yes$0 @ 23.0¢