0xc4e1…5c0c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc4e12d1921aacbc65557951ca0c6c7a0cdaa5c0c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.7pp

ROI

+53%

Win rate

20% @ 12.1¢

Brier

0.109

Resolved

501

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	26% (19/72)	+81%	72
Tech	14% (1/7)	-31%	7
Politics	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Geopolitics	0% (0/6)	-100%	6

Other72 bets
Hit rate
26% (19/72)
ROI
+81%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-31%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%

Track record

22% hit · 20/91

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	No	$24	59.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	Yes	$8	2.5¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$194	24.9¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	29.0¢	Lost
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$58	2.8¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	Yes	$14	2.0¢	Lost
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	Yes	$5	2.5¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?	Yes	$36	24.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$38	75.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?	Yes	$6	13.0¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$28	22.2¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	$12	3.0¢	Lost
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked?	Yes	$90	22.5¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$53	21.0¢	Lost
Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-11-15?	Yes	$3	2.8¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$22	11.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?	Yes	$30	76.3¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	38.5¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?	Yes	$118	29.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	No	$15	30.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?	No	$21	10.5¢	Lost
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?	Yes	$15	73.0¢	Won
Will Sweden win on 2025-11-15?	Yes	$20	15.0¢	Lost
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?	No	$5	17.0¢	Lost
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	No	$10	1.0¢	Lost
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$121	15.6¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	$3	26.0¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Yes	$26	18.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$41	4.9¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$2	1.3¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	$4	27.7¢	Lost
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?	Yes	$11	11.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$61	6.8¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	$140	28.0¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?	No	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?	Yes	$26	1.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?	Yes	$58	9.8¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	$24	6.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?	Yes	$5	2.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$61	35.9¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	No	$5	18.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	No	$11	54.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	Yes	$57	8.7¢	Lost
Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?	Yes	$4	8.7¢	Lost
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 19?	Yes	$8	20.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	$108	31.0¢	Lost
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Won
No$24 @ 59.0¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.5¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$194 @ 24.9¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 29.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$58 @ 2.8¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?Lost
Yes$14 @ 2.0¢
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.5¢
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?Won
Yes$36 @ 24.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$38 @ 75.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?Lost
Yes$6 @ 13.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
Yes$28 @ 22.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 3.0¢
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked?Won
Yes$90 @ 22.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$53 @ 21.0¢
Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-11-15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.8¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$22 @ 11.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Won
Yes$30 @ 76.3¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 38.5¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?Won
Yes$118 @ 29.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Lost
No$15 @ 30.0¢
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?Lost
No$21 @ 10.5¢
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?Won
Yes$15 @ 73.0¢
Will Sweden win on 2025-11-15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 15.0¢
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?Lost
No$5 @ 17.0¢
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 1.0¢
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?Won
Yes$121 @ 15.6¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
Yes$3 @ 26.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Lost
Yes$26 @ 18.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$41 @ 4.9¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.3¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Lost
No$4 @ 27.7¢
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$61 @ 6.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Won
Yes$140 @ 28.0¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 1.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Lost
Yes$26 @ 1.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$58 @ 9.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
Yes$24 @ 6.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.2¢
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$61 @ 35.9¢
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Lost
No$5 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Lost
No$11 @ 54.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$57 @ 8.7¢
Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.7¢
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 19?Lost
Yes$8 @ 20.0¢
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes?Lost
Yes$108 @ 31.0¢
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$147	70.1¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$52	17.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$51	56.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$44	20.5¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$42	21.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C?	Politics	Yes	$33	9.6¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$30	8.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	Politics	Yes	$18	30.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	33.0¢
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$10	95.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$8	80.0¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$6	15.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$4	18.0¢

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$147 @ 70.1¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$52 @ 17.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$51 @ 56.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$44 @ 20.5¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$42 @ 21.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C?Politics
Yes$33 @ 9.6¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$30 @ 8.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?Politics
Yes$18 @ 30.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 33.0¢
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$10 @ 95.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$8 @ 80.0¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$6 @ 15.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$4 @ 18.0¢