0xc4d1…8ce8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc4d1a863e9cc45d02ba22d3a1ae9ba7822018ce8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.6pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

74% @ 61.0¢

Brier

0.124

Resolved

1543

Avg size

$1.3k

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (72/174)	-12%	174
Politics	80% (8/10)	+24%	10
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other174 bets
Hit rate
41% (72/174)
ROI
-12%
Politics10 bets
Hit rate
80% (8/10)
ROI
+24%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

43% hit · 80/185

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢	Lost
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.1k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢	Lost
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$845	2.0¢	Lost
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.4k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢	Lost
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢	Lost
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$4.1k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$4.2k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢	Lost
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.3k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢	Lost
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.1k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢	Lost
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$12.6k	5.5¢	Lost
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.5k	75.6¢	Won
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢	Lost
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$4.2k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢	Lost
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$7.2k	2.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$5.4k	2.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	$1715.6k	50.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$1715.6k	50.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$105.8k	11.8¢	Won
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$846.0k	94.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$32.8k	82.0¢	Won
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$10.4k	82.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$837	26.0¢	Lost
League of Legends: BNK FEARX vs. DRX	DRX	$57	38.0¢	Lost
Athletics vs. Rays	Athletics	$18.5k	37.0¢	Won
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23?	Yes	$80.0k	80.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$7.5k	75.0¢	Won
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	No	$1.6k	89.6¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	No	$2.4k	59.3¢	Won
Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays	Diamondbacks	$15.0k	50.0¢	Lost
Iowa vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers	Nebraska Cornhuskers	$36	32.0¢	Lost
White Sox vs. Dodgers	Dodgers	$22.5k	75.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$19.4k	81.1¢	Won

Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.1k @ 2.0¢
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$845 @ 2.0¢
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.4k @ 2.0¢
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 2.0¢
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$4.1k @ 2.0¢
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$4.2k @ 2.0¢
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.3k @ 2.0¢
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.1k @ 2.0¢
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$12.6k @ 5.5¢
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.5k @ 75.6¢
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$4.2k @ 2.0¢
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$7.2k @ 2.0¢
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$5.4k @ 2.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseLost
No$1715.6k @ 50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$1715.6k @ 50.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$105.8k @ 11.8¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$846.0k @ 94.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$32.8k @ 82.0¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$10.4k @ 82.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$837 @ 26.0¢
League of Legends: BNK FEARX vs. DRXLost
DRX$57 @ 38.0¢
Athletics vs. RaysWon
Athletics$18.5k @ 37.0¢
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23?Won
Yes$80.0k @ 80.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$7.5k @ 75.0¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Won
No$1.6k @ 89.6¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Won
No$2.4k @ 59.3¢
Diamondbacks vs. Blue JaysLost
Diamondbacks$15.0k @ 50.0¢
Iowa vs. Nebraska CornhuskersLost
Nebraska Cornhuskers$36 @ 32.0¢
White Sox vs. DodgersWon
Dodgers$22.5k @ 75.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$19.4k @ 81.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	—	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	—	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	—	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	—	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	—	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	—	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	—	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	—	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	—	Yes	$16.5k	5.4¢
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	—	Yes	$12.6k	5.5¢
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$9.1k	2.4¢
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.8k	2.1¢
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.5k	2.0¢
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.4k	2.0¢
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.4k	2.0¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.3k	2.0¢
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.2k	2.0¢
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.1k	2.0¢
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$7.1k	2.0¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$6.7k	94.7¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	—	No	$6.5k	5.7¢

Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?—
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?—
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?—
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?—
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?—
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?—
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?—
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?—
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?—
Yes$16.5k @ 5.4¢
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?—
Yes$12.6k @ 5.5¢
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$9.1k @ 2.4¢
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.8k @ 2.1¢
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.5k @ 2.0¢
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.4k @ 2.0¢
Will France win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.4k @ 2.0¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.3k @ 2.0¢
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.2k @ 2.0¢
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.1k @ 2.0¢
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$7.1k @ 2.0¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$6.7k @ 94.7¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?—
No$6.5k @ 5.7¢