0xc4c1…7324

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc4c1246af95cf0cfe70448f08a1a3655b6e77324
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.6pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

72% @ 58.3¢

Brier

0.122

Resolved

374

Avg size

$70

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	83% (25/30)	+31%	30
Politics	59% (13/22)	+13%	22
Geopolitics	50% (5/10)	+31%	10
Tech	33% (1/3)	-14%	3
Economy	100% (2/2)	+22%	2

Other30 bets
Hit rate
83% (25/30)
ROI
+31%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
59% (13/22)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
+31%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-14%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+22%

Track record

69% hit · 46/67

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$1.8k	81.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$346	49.0¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$152	75.0¢	Won
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	No	$947	82.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$643	71.4¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$139	80.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	Yes	$43	43.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	$75	33.9¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?	Yes	$167	88.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$542	77.4¢	Won
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	$50	10.8¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$955	69.8¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?	No	$586	56.4¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	No	$250	82.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$40	79.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$1.5k	74.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$102	19.0¢	Lost
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?	No	$130	89.0¢	Won
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10?	No	$75	75.5¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$133	9.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$175	87.5¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026?	Yes	$98	16.9¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June?	Yes	$954	86.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$847	48.8¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$349	36.7¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$78	38.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	No	$56	5.8¢	Lost
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17?	No	$259	28.2¢	Lost
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	$17	11.6¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?	Yes	$237	73.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?	Yes	$588	78.7¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$308	6.1¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$875	87.0¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	$150	72.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	$644	73.9¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August 2026?	No	$186	89.0¢	Won
Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$217	79.5¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026?	No	$890	85.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 26, 2026?	No	$330	66.5¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?	Yes	$165	26.7¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$112	55.0¢	Won
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026?	No	$89	80.0¢	Won
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	$415	57.7¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 20, 2026?	No	$101	27.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$1.9k	75.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	$355	71.1¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 18, 2026?	No	$27	21.2¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$218	33.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Yes	$22	24.5¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April 2026?	No	$710	87.8¢	Won

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$1.8k @ 81.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$346 @ 49.0¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$152 @ 75.0¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Won
No$947 @ 82.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$643 @ 71.4¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$139 @ 80.6¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?Lost
Yes$43 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Won
No$75 @ 33.9¢
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?Won
Yes$167 @ 88.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$542 @ 77.4¢
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 10.8¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$955 @ 69.8¢
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?Won
No$586 @ 56.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Won
No$250 @ 82.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$40 @ 79.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 74.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$102 @ 19.0¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?Won
No$130 @ 89.0¢
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10?Won
No$75 @ 75.5¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$133 @ 9.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$175 @ 87.5¢
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026?Lost
Yes$98 @ 16.9¢
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June?Won
Yes$954 @ 86.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$847 @ 48.8¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$349 @ 36.7¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$78 @ 38.0¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?Lost
No$56 @ 5.8¢
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17?Lost
No$259 @ 28.2¢
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$17 @ 11.6¢
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?Won
Yes$237 @ 73.8¢
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?Won
Yes$588 @ 78.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$308 @ 6.1¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
Yes$875 @ 87.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
Yes$150 @ 72.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?Won
No$644 @ 73.9¢
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August 2026?Won
No$186 @ 89.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$217 @ 79.5¢
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026?Won
No$890 @ 85.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 26, 2026?Won
No$330 @ 66.5¢
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?Lost
Yes$165 @ 26.7¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$112 @ 55.0¢
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026?Won
No$89 @ 80.0¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Won
No$415 @ 57.7¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 20, 2026?Lost
No$101 @ 27.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 75.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Won
No$355 @ 71.1¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 18, 2026?Lost
No$27 @ 21.2¢
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$218 @ 33.9¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Lost
Yes$22 @ 24.5¢
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April 2026?Won
No$710 @ 87.8¢

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