0xc4c1…7324

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc4c1246af95cf0cfe70448f08a1a3655b6e77324
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.9pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

67% @ 57.2¢

Brier

0.157

Resolved

1195

Avg size

$57

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	69% (83/120)	+21%	120
Politics	51% (41/81)	-0%	81
Geopolitics	58% (18/31)	+84%	31
Tech	33% (2/6)	-80%	6
Economy	75% (3/4)	+2%	4
Culture	100% (3/3)	+139%	3
Business	100% (1/1)	+53%	1

Other120 bets
Hit rate
69% (83/120)
ROI
+21%
Politics81 bets
Hit rate
51% (41/81)
ROI
-0%
Geopolitics31 bets
Hit rate
58% (18/31)
ROI
+84%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-80%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+2%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+139%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+53%

Track record

61% hit · 151/246

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?	Yes	$93	28.9¢	Won
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?	Yes	$44	52.3¢	Won
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?	Yes	$65	84.0¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026?	No	$36	65.5¢	Won
Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 7, 2026?	No	$2	30.0¢	Won
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Yes	$70	70.0¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$268	69.0¢	Won
US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Yes	$388	69.2¢	Lost
Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?	No	$9	90.0¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 15, 2026?	Yes	$573	89.7¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	$81	28.0¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Yes	$777	62.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?	No	$22	55.5¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?	No	$45	87.5¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 19, 2026?	No	$48	31.2¢	Lost
Will Ukraine target Moscow by September 4, 2026?	No	$109	18.4¢	Lost
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?	No	$30	7.8¢	Lost
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 7, 2026?	No	$49	19.4¢	Lost
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 14, 2026?	No	$169	13.3¢	Lost
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?	No	$69	19.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$117	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	$101	92.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in August?	No	$63	48.2¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by December 31?	No	$14	3.5¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?	No	$5	45.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?	No	$74	92.5¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$125	67.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$224	66.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?	No	$223	87.2¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$221	64.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	$124	87.0¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	$186	80.1¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$467	39.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by October 31, 2026?	No	$20	83.8¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?	No	$350	87.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$1.8k	81.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$346	49.0¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$152	75.0¢	Won
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	No	$947	82.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$643	71.4¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	$609	82.7¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$139	80.6¢	Lost
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?	No	$342	79.6¢	Won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?	Yes	$100	44.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	No	$405	81.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	Yes	$43	43.0¢	Lost
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26?	No	$100	81.5¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	$75	33.9¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?	Yes	$167	88.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?	Yes	$169	86.0¢	Lost

Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?Won
Yes$93 @ 28.9¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?Won
Yes$44 @ 52.3¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?Won
Yes$65 @ 84.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026?Won
No$36 @ 65.5¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 7, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 30.0¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?Won
Yes$70 @ 70.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$268 @ 69.0¢
US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?Lost
Yes$388 @ 69.2¢
Will no qualifying Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place by December 31, 2027?Won
No$9 @ 90.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 15, 2026?Won
Yes$573 @ 89.7¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Lost
No$81 @ 28.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Won
Yes$777 @ 62.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?Won
No$22 @ 55.5¢
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?Won
No$45 @ 87.5¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 19, 2026?Lost
No$48 @ 31.2¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow by September 4, 2026?Lost
No$109 @ 18.4¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$30 @ 7.8¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 7, 2026?Lost
No$49 @ 19.4¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 14, 2026?Lost
No$169 @ 13.3¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$69 @ 19.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$117 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Won
Yes$101 @ 92.0¢
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in August?Lost
No$63 @ 48.2¢
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by December 31?Lost
No$14 @ 3.5¢
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?Won
No$5 @ 45.0¢
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?Won
No$74 @ 92.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$125 @ 67.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$224 @ 66.0¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?Won
No$223 @ 87.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$221 @ 64.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Lost
Yes$124 @ 87.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Won
No$186 @ 80.1¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$467 @ 39.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by October 31, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 83.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?Won
No$350 @ 87.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$1.8k @ 81.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$346 @ 49.0¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$152 @ 75.0¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Won
No$947 @ 82.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$643 @ 71.4¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Won
Yes$609 @ 82.7¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$139 @ 80.6¢
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?Won
No$342 @ 79.6¢
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 44.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?Won
No$405 @ 81.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?Lost
Yes$43 @ 43.0¢
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26?Won
No$100 @ 81.5¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Won
No$75 @ 33.9¢
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?Won
Yes$167 @ 88.9¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?Lost
Yes$169 @ 86.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	84.1¢
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	Tech	No	$1.1k	18.0¢
Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.1k	76.9¢
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	71.5¢
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026?	Business	No	$919	84.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	Other	No	$758	80.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	Other	No	$635	87.9¢
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Tech	No	$561	39.8¢
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.00T and $5.50T at the end of 2026?	Business	Yes	$532	26.1¢
Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$416	78.8¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$397	69.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$349	84.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$343	92.1¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$301	87.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?	Other	No	$284	89.9¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	Politics	No	$278	93.1¢
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Politics	No	$268	59.9¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 14+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Politics	No	$258	49.7¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$189	48.7¢
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$170	66.0¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 14, 2026?	—	No	$169	13.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Politics	Yes	$157	86.8¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$157	54.3¢
Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$153	62.4¢
Will Melania Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$150	90.4¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 25, 2026?	—	No	$135	48.1¢
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$124	23.5¢
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by October 31?	Politics	No	$121	7.6¢
Will António Guterres visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$121	88.1¢
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$119	9.7¢

Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 84.1¢
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Tech
No$1.1k @ 18.0¢
Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.1k @ 76.9¢
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 71.5¢
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026?Business
No$919 @ 84.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?Other
No$758 @ 80.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?Other
No$635 @ 87.9¢
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?Tech
No$561 @ 39.8¢
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $5.00T and $5.50T at the end of 2026?Business
Yes$532 @ 26.1¢
Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$416 @ 78.8¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$397 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
Yes$349 @ 84.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$343 @ 92.1¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$301 @ 87.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?Other
No$284 @ 89.9¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?Politics
No$278 @ 93.1¢
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?Politics
No$268 @ 59.9¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 14+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Politics
No$258 @ 49.7¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$189 @ 48.7¢
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$170 @ 66.0¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 14, 2026?—
No$169 @ 13.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Politics
Yes$157 @ 86.8¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?Geopolitics
No$157 @ 54.3¢
Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$153 @ 62.4¢
Will Melania Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$150 @ 90.4¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 25, 2026?—
No$135 @ 48.1¢
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$124 @ 23.5¢
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by October 31?Politics
No$121 @ 7.6¢
Will António Guterres visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$121 @ 88.1¢
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$119 @ 9.7¢