0xc4b5…171e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc4b5a673f69683a5e58730755ed51a49ed59171e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.5pp

ROI

+67%

Win rate

68% @ 55.2¢

Brier

0.107

Resolved

102

Avg size

$105

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (17/28)	+162%	28
Politics	94% (17/18)	+24%	18
Business	59% (10/17)	+43%	17
Science	71% (10/14)	+11%	14
Sports	100% (10/10)	+3%	10
Crypto	100% (4/4)	+51%	4
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+37%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+33%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+213%	1

Other28 bets
Hit rate
61% (17/28)
ROI
+162%
Politics18 bets
Hit rate
94% (17/18)
ROI
+24%
Business17 bets
Hit rate
59% (10/17)
ROI
+43%
Science14 bets
Hit rate
71% (10/14)
ROI
+11%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
100% (10/10)
ROI
+3%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+51%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+37%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+33%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+213%

Track record

74% hit · 71/96

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	99.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $145 in November?	Yes	$5	99.0¢	Won
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 AL Comeback Player of the Year award?	Yes	$340	98.3¢	Won
Will Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Win the 2026 ACC Championship?	No	$10	99.0¢	Won
Will Michigan State Spartans Win the 2026 Big Ten Championship?	No	$20	98.0¢	Won
Will Old Dominion Monarchs advance to the 2026 Sun Belt Championship Game?	No	$102	98.8¢	Won
Will Vanderbilt Commodores advance to the 2026 SEC Championship Game?	No	$102	98.8¢	Won
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000?	No	$44	97.3¢	Won
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 150,000 and 170,000?	No	$230	98.8¢	Won
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 DE-AL House election?	No	$0	99.0¢	Won
Will Maryland Terrapins advance to the 2026 Big Ten Championship Game?	No	$102	98.8¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election?	Yes	$12	99.0¢	Won
Will Michigan State Spartans advance to the 2026 Big Ten Championship Game?	No	$102	98.8¢	Won
Will Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets advance to the 2026 ACC Championship Game?	No	$102	98.8¢	Won
Will Florida State Seminoles advance to the 2026 ACC Championship Game?	No	$149	99.0¢	Won
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of November 9 2026?	Yes	$5	99.0¢	Won
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $138 in November?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 26 2026?	No	$7	1.0¢	Lost
Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?	Yes	$125	86.7¢	Won
Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $137?	Yes	$153	89.8¢	Won
Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$110	87.3¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 10°C on November 4?	Yes	$10	84.5¢	Won
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	$79	78.0¢	Won
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of November 2 2026?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?	Yes	$40	88.0¢	Won
Will Wells Fargo (WFC) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $0.65B?	Yes	$132	87.2¢	Won
Will Michelle Dracoulis win the next Derwent Valley mayoral election?	No	$190	84.4¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 2?	Yes	$27	30.1¢	Won
Will Drew Jenner win the next Clarence mayoral election?	No	$45	89.9¢	Lost
Will Drew Jenner win the next Clarence mayoral election?	Yes	$379	73.3¢	Won
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of October 5 2026?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 Analog revenue be above $4.75B?	Yes	$39	78.7¢	Won
Will Tama Shimabukuro advance to the Round of 16 in Men's Singles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	No	$8	28.4¢	Won
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of October 26 2026?	No	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on October 14?	Yes	$1.8k	64.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on October 21?	No	$100	89.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 22?	No	$42	80.8¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (LOW) $130 Week of November 2 2026?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	No	$15	75.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	$571	11.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	$146	3.1¢	Won
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of October 19 2026?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of October 26 2026?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $540 in November?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Koguma peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker?	Yes	$6	1.7¢	Lost
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$16	78.7¢	Won
Will Google (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$231	89.7¢	Won
Will Casey Farrell win the next Derwent Valley mayoral election?	Yes	$574	77.7¢	Won
Landskrona BoIS vs. IK Oddevold: Landskrona BoIS O/U 4.5 Corners	Over	$350	14.3¢	Lost
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	$168	69.8¢	Won

Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 99.0¢
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $145 in November?Won
Yes$5 @ 99.0¢
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 AL Comeback Player of the Year award?Won
Yes$340 @ 98.3¢
Will Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Win the 2026 ACC Championship?Won
No$10 @ 99.0¢
Will Michigan State Spartans Win the 2026 Big Ten Championship?Won
No$20 @ 98.0¢
Will Old Dominion Monarchs advance to the 2026 Sun Belt Championship Game?Won
No$102 @ 98.8¢
Will Vanderbilt Commodores advance to the 2026 SEC Championship Game?Won
No$102 @ 98.8¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000?Won
No$44 @ 97.3¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 150,000 and 170,000?Won
No$230 @ 98.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 DE-AL House election?Won
No$0 @ 99.0¢
Will Maryland Terrapins advance to the 2026 Big Ten Championship Game?Won
No$102 @ 98.8¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election?Won
Yes$12 @ 99.0¢
Will Michigan State Spartans advance to the 2026 Big Ten Championship Game?Won
No$102 @ 98.8¢
Will Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets advance to the 2026 ACC Championship Game?Won
No$102 @ 98.8¢
Will Florida State Seminoles advance to the 2026 ACC Championship Game?Won
No$149 @ 99.0¢
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of November 9 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 99.0¢
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $138 in November?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 26 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 1.0¢
Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?Won
Yes$125 @ 86.7¢
Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $137?Won
Yes$153 @ 89.8¢
Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$110 @ 87.3¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 10°C on November 4?Won
Yes$10 @ 84.5¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Won
Yes$79 @ 78.0¢
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of November 2 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?Won
Yes$40 @ 88.0¢
Will Wells Fargo (WFC) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $0.65B?Won
Yes$132 @ 87.2¢
Will Michelle Dracoulis win the next Derwent Valley mayoral election?Won
No$190 @ 84.4¢
Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 2?Won
Yes$27 @ 30.1¢
Will Drew Jenner win the next Clarence mayoral election?Lost
No$45 @ 89.9¢
Will Drew Jenner win the next Clarence mayoral election?Won
Yes$379 @ 73.3¢
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of October 5 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 Analog revenue be above $4.75B?Won
Yes$39 @ 78.7¢
Will Tama Shimabukuro advance to the Round of 16 in Men's Singles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?Won
No$8 @ 28.4¢
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of October 26 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 1.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on October 14?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 64.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on October 21?Won
No$100 @ 89.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 22?Won
No$42 @ 80.8¢
Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (LOW) $130 Week of November 2 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?Won
No$15 @ 75.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Lost
No$571 @ 11.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Won
Yes$146 @ 3.1¢
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of October 19 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of October 26 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $540 in November?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Koguma peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.7¢
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$16 @ 78.7¢
Will Google (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$231 @ 89.7¢
Will Casey Farrell win the next Derwent Valley mayoral election?Won
Yes$574 @ 77.7¢
Landskrona BoIS vs. IK Oddevold: Landskrona BoIS O/U 4.5 CornersLost
Over$350 @ 14.3¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 5 2026?Won
Yes$168 @ 69.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 3%-6%?	Politics	No	$938	97.6¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-16 House election?	Politics	No	$716	97.8¢
Will Bitcoin hashprice be between $30 and $35 for the week of October 26?	Crypto	Yes	$500	98.7¢
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$499	98.7¢
Will 1100 to 1149 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	Science	No	$415	99.0¢
Will Fortaleza CEIF be relegated from the 2026 Colombia Primera A?	Sports	No	$287	98.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election?	Politics	No	$262	98.8¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $7.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$245	95.5¢
Will an Independent candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 3% or more?	Politics	No	$237	99.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-24 House election?	Politics	No	$207	98.7¢
Will Racing be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)?	Sports	No	$188	99.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IA-01 House election by 6% or more?	Politics	No	$185	99.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-10 House election by 0%-3%?	Politics	No	$181	98.8¢
Will an Independent candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?	Politics	No	$160	99.0¢
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?	Sports	No	$143	99.0¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,200,000 and 1,250,000?	Politics	No	$126	98.2¢
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on November 7?	Science	No	$120	92.0¢
Will Cienciano be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?	Sports	No	$119	99.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election?	Politics	No	$119	99.0¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be between 650,000 and 700,000?	Politics	No	$118	98.5¢
Will 1150 to 1199 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	Science	No	$112	98.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-15 House election by 0%-3%?	Politics	No	$105	99.0¢
Will Deportes Tolima be relegated from the 2026 Colombia Primera A?	Sports	No	$99	99.0¢
Will Bitcoin hashprice be between $40 and $45 for the week of October 26?	Crypto	No	$99	99.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-15 House election by 0%-3%?	Politics	No	$98	97.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-14 House election by 0%-5%?	Politics	No	$95	98.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Politics	No	$93	98.5¢
Will Águilas Doradas be relegated from the 2026 Colombia Primera A?	Sports	No	$85	98.9¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee be less than 1,600,000?	Politics	No	$74	98.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-06 House election?	Politics	No	$67	98.2¢

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 3%-6%?Politics
No$938 @ 97.6¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-16 House election?Politics
No$716 @ 97.8¢
Will Bitcoin hashprice be between $30 and $35 for the week of October 26?Crypto
Yes$500 @ 98.7¢
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Politics
Yes$499 @ 98.7¢
Will 1100 to 1149 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?Science
No$415 @ 99.0¢
Will Fortaleza CEIF be relegated from the 2026 Colombia Primera A?Sports
No$287 @ 98.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election?Politics
No$262 @ 98.8¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $7.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$245 @ 95.5¢
Will an Independent candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 3% or more?Politics
No$237 @ 99.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-24 House election?Politics
No$207 @ 98.7¢
Will Racing be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)?Sports
No$188 @ 99.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IA-01 House election by 6% or more?Politics
No$185 @ 99.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-10 House election by 0%-3%?Politics
No$181 @ 98.8¢
Will an Independent candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election?Politics
No$160 @ 99.0¢
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?Sports
No$143 @ 99.0¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,200,000 and 1,250,000?Politics
No$126 @ 98.2¢
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on November 7?Science
No$120 @ 92.0¢
Will Cienciano be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1?Sports
No$119 @ 99.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election?Politics
No$119 @ 99.0¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be between 650,000 and 700,000?Politics
No$118 @ 98.5¢
Will 1150 to 1199 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?Science
No$112 @ 98.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-15 House election by 0%-3%?Politics
No$105 @ 99.0¢
Will Deportes Tolima be relegated from the 2026 Colombia Primera A?Sports
No$99 @ 99.0¢
Will Bitcoin hashprice be between $40 and $45 for the week of October 26?Crypto
No$99 @ 99.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-15 House election by 0%-3%?Politics
No$98 @ 97.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-14 House election by 0%-5%?Politics
No$95 @ 98.8¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?Politics
No$93 @ 98.5¢
Will Águilas Doradas be relegated from the 2026 Colombia Primera A?Sports
No$85 @ 98.9¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee be less than 1,600,000?Politics
No$74 @ 98.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-06 House election?Politics
No$67 @ 98.2¢