0xc449…037c

Specialization by sphere

• Other35 bets

  Hit rate

  69% (24/35)

  ROI

  -14%

• Politics10 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (10/10)

  ROI

  +27%

• Sports9 bets

  Hit rate

  56% (5/9)

  ROI

  +28%

• Geopolitics6 bets

  Hit rate

  83% (5/6)

  ROI

  +14%

• Will Bosnia and Herzegovina be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$9 @ 65.0¢
• Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Won
  No$18 @ 86.0¢
• Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Won
  No$26 @ 42.9¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
  No$82 @ 82.5¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 19.0¢
• Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
  No$54 @ 88.9¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?Won
  No$26 @ 86.0¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
  No$44 @ 74.0¢
• Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Lost
  No$21 @ 55.3¢
• Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  No$27 @ 55.0¢
• Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Won
  No$40 @ 84.0¢
• Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?Won
  No$36 @ 89.8¢
• Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
  Yes$231 @ 5.7¢
• Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?Won
  No$41 @ 79.0¢
• Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$34 @ 8.5¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
  No$42 @ 83.0¢
• Will Mikaela Shiffrin (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Women's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Lost
  No$21 @ 41.0¢
• Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?Won
  Yes$43 @ 86.0¢
• Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Won
  No$40 @ 67.0¢
• U.S. fertility rate up in Q1 2025?Won
  No$27 @ 83.0¢
• Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
  Yes$52 @ 40.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Lost
  No$19 @ 61.0¢
• Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
  No$31 @ 63.0¢
• Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 12.5¢
• Iran Nuke in 2025?Won
  No$43 @ 86.0¢
• Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Won
  No$21 @ 69.0¢
• Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
  Yes$36 @ 12.0¢
• AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Won
  No$48 @ 68.0¢
• Will Italy join the Board of Peace?Won
  No$40 @ 75.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Won
  No$22 @ 86.0¢
• Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?Won
  No$221 @ 79.2¢
• Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?Won
  No$40 @ 86.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
  No$39 @ 78.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Won
  No$57 @ 88.0¢
• US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
  No$30 @ 75.0¢
• Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Won
  No$13 @ 63.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
  Yes$52 @ 43.0¢
• US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?Won
  No$25 @ 75.8¢
• Enhanced Games: Fred Kerley 100m Sprint Time Under 9.76?Won
  No$36 @ 71.0¢
• Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$50 @ 25.0¢
• Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
  No$4 @ 81.0¢
• Will Brazil record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
  Yes$26 @ 40.6¢
• Will Artemis II launch by March 31?Won
  No$30 @ 54.0¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Won
  No$35 @ 87.0¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
  No$39 @ 78.0¢
• Péter Magyar sextape released by March 31 Won
  No$30 @ 61.0¢
• Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$58 @ 83.0¢
• Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?Won
  No$40 @ 87.0¢
• Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?Won
  No$40 @ 88.0¢

Current positions

• Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$97 @ 97.1¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
  No$78 @ 97.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$63 @ 90.0¢
• Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
  Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
• Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
  No$46 @ 92.0¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$46 @ 91.0¢
• Will Toy Story 5 win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
  Yes$41 @ 41.0¢
• Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Sports
  Yes$41 @ 15.0¢
• Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
  Yes$35 @ 70.0¢
• Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
  Yes$29 @ 25.0¢
• Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$27 @ 35.5¢
• Will Dune: Part Three win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
  No$2 @ 70.0¢