0xc427…6f4d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc427980d20632c60c5a43fb689540c7f6f776f4d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+3.5pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

34% @ 30.1¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

1316

Avg size

$57

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	36% (88/246)	+22%	246
Sports	17% (4/23)	-48%	23
Geopolitics	29% (4/14)	-47%	14
Politics	22% (2/9)	-50%	9
Crypto	0% (0/9)	-100%	9
Tech	50% (1/2)	-40%	2

Other246 bets
Hit rate
36% (88/246)
ROI
+22%
Sports23 bets
Hit rate
17% (4/23)
ROI
-48%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
29% (4/14)
ROI
-47%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
22% (2/9)
ROI
-50%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/9)
ROI
-100%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-40%

Track record

33% hit · 99/303

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	No	$91	26.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?	No	$3	4.2¢	Lost
Spread: Russia (-1.5)	Russia	$150	40.6¢	Lost
Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?	No	$150	15.0¢	Lost
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?	No	$2.1k	48.2¢	Lost
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?	Yes	$838	75.7¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$400	13.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$218	10.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	Yes	$445	14.3¢	Lost
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)	SC Freiburg	$40	20.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$506	65.8¢	Lost
Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30?	No	$79	6.8¢	Lost
Spread: Getafe CF (-1.5)	Getafe CF	$8	13.0¢	Lost
Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5)	EC Bahia	$52	17.1¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$171	38.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$104	26.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?	Yes	$525	30.0¢	Lost
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-20?	Yes	$10	86.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $72 by end of February?	Yes	$24	8.8¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Yes	$40	29.8¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $68 by end of February?	Yes	$7	10.0¢	Lost
Spread: England (-3.5)	France	$140	54.4¢	Won
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?	No	$82	7.3¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$136	22.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	No	$103	56.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$228	14.4¢	Won
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?	No	$280	18.7¢	Lost
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?	Yes	$388	72.7¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 7?	No	$26	2.1¢	Lost
Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31?	No	$260	46.6¢	Won
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	Yes	$729	36.0¢	Lost
Will gas hit (High) $4.40 by May 31?	Yes	$548	88.0¢	Won
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	$153	1.9¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of February?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?	Yes	$22	22.0¢	Lost
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-20?	Yes	$40	38.2¢	Won
Spread: France (-1.5)	France	$57	28.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 6 2026?	No	$31	58.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?	No	$540	54.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	No	$156	52.0¢	Won
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?	Yes	$6	24.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 7?	No	$19	1.7¢	Lost
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-14?	Yes	$53	44.0¢	Won
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?	Yes	$168	14.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	$973	22.7¢	Lost
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	$101	5.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$276	25.4¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$198	66.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	No	$212	53.1¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$457	42.8¢	Lost

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Lost
No$91 @ 26.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Lost
No$3 @ 4.2¢
Spread: Russia (-1.5)Lost
Russia$150 @ 40.6¢
Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?Lost
No$150 @ 15.0¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?Lost
No$2.1k @ 48.2¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?Won
Yes$838 @ 75.7¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$400 @ 13.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$218 @ 10.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Lost
Yes$445 @ 14.3¢
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)Won
SC Freiburg$40 @ 20.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Lost
Yes$506 @ 65.8¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30?Lost
No$79 @ 6.8¢
Spread: Getafe CF (-1.5)Lost
Getafe CF$8 @ 13.0¢
Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5)Lost
EC Bahia$52 @ 17.1¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$171 @ 38.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$104 @ 26.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Lost
Yes$525 @ 30.0¢
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-20?Lost
Yes$10 @ 86.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $72 by end of February?Lost
Yes$24 @ 8.8¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
Yes$40 @ 29.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $68 by end of February?Lost
Yes$7 @ 10.0¢
Spread: England (-3.5)Won
France$140 @ 54.4¢
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?Lost
No$82 @ 7.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$136 @ 22.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Lost
No$103 @ 56.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$228 @ 14.4¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?Lost
No$280 @ 18.7¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?Won
Yes$388 @ 72.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 7?Lost
No$26 @ 2.1¢
Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31?Won
No$260 @ 46.6¢
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Lost
Yes$729 @ 36.0¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.40 by May 31?Won
Yes$548 @ 88.0¢
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?Lost
No$153 @ 1.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of February?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?Lost
Yes$22 @ 22.0¢
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-20?Won
Yes$40 @ 38.2¢
Spread: France (-1.5)Won
France$57 @ 28.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 6 2026?Won
No$31 @ 58.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?Won
No$540 @ 54.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?Won
No$156 @ 52.0¢
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 24.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 7?Lost
No$19 @ 1.7¢
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-14?Won
Yes$53 @ 44.0¢
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$168 @ 14.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Lost
Yes$973 @ 22.7¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
No$101 @ 5.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$276 @ 25.4¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$198 @ 66.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Won
No$212 @ 53.1¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Lost
Yes$457 @ 42.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026?	Other	Yes	$341	30.0¢
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026?	Other	No	$109	67.6¢
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$46	2.6¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$15	9.3¢
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?	Economy	No	$3	58.0¢

Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026?Other
Yes$341 @ 30.0¢
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026?Other
No$109 @ 67.6¢
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$46 @ 2.6¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$15 @ 9.3¢
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?Economy
No$3 @ 58.0¢