0xc3de…e227

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc3de5d251eabb1333129184711ad692f2607e227
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.0pp

ROI

+45%

Win rate

26% @ 21.4¢

Brier

0.162

Resolved

4348

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	25% (336/1340)	+39%	1340
Politics	22% (30/136)	+38%	136
Sports	33% (1/3)	+50%	3

Other1340 bets
Hit rate
25% (336/1340)
ROI
+39%
Politics136 bets
Hit rate
22% (30/136)
ROI
+38%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+50%

Track record

25% hit · 367/1479

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Mike Waltz be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$4	3.5¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Yes	$61	64.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat?	Yes	$5	18.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?	Yes	$43	41.1¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?	Yes	$174	87.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat?	Yes	$54	86.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-06 House seat?	No	$145	90.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	$12	30.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the WI-03 House seat?	Yes	$16	27.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Yes	$7	14.8¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat?	Yes	$4	6.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	Yes	$8	39.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the NE-02 House seat?	Yes	$3	10.0¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	$71	22.1¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?	Yes	$5	7.7¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	Yes	$7	34.0¢	Lost
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	$3	0.8¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the TX-34 House seat?	Yes	$8	16.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?	Yes	$25	24.4¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?	Yes	$7	18.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-02 House seat?	Yes	$7	8.0¢	Lost
Will Republicans win the Georgia Governor election and Democrats win the Georgia Senate election?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Lost
Will less than 8 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act?	Yes	$17	24.2¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?	No	$14	70.0¢	Won
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?	Yes	$1	6.1¢	Lost
Will Microsoft buy TikTok?	No	$12	60.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Communist" this week?	No	$47	58.5¢	Lost
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?	No	$170	44.8¢	Won
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?	Yes	$27	54.0¢	Lost
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 9?	Yes	$191	12.3¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$5	84.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$30	15.0¢	Lost
Was Trump hacked?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	Yes	$70	35.0¢	Won
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?	No	$72	72.0¢	Won
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?	Yes	$135	26.8¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	No	$61	21.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on March 28?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will the Labor Party win by 40 or more seats?	Yes	$30	12.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?	No	$23	42.4¢	Won
Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?	Yes	$10	20.0¢	Lost
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%?	Yes	$13	3.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 23?	No	$6	46.7¢	Won
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?	Yes	$32	52.6¢	Won
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?	No	$19	4.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 21?	Yes	$9	20.0¢	Lost
Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$25	0.9¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$15	28.5¢	Lost
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?	Yes	$36	18.0¢	Lost

Will Mike Waltz be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?Won
Yes$61 @ 64.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat?Lost
Yes$5 @ 18.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?Won
Yes$43 @ 41.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?Won
Yes$174 @ 87.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat?Won
Yes$54 @ 86.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-06 House seat?Won
No$145 @ 90.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?Won
Yes$12 @ 30.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the WI-03 House seat?Lost
Yes$16 @ 27.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?Lost
Yes$7 @ 14.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?Won
Yes$8 @ 39.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NE-02 House seat?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$71 @ 22.1¢
Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?Lost
Yes$7 @ 34.0¢
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-34 House seat?Lost
Yes$8 @ 16.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?Lost
Yes$25 @ 24.4¢
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?Lost
Yes$7 @ 18.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-02 House seat?Lost
Yes$7 @ 8.0¢
Will Republicans win the Georgia Governor election and Democrats win the Georgia Senate election?Lost
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will less than 8 Democratic senators vote in favor of the Laken Riley Act?Lost
Yes$17 @ 24.2¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Won
No$14 @ 70.0¢
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.1¢
Will Microsoft buy TikTok?Won
No$12 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump say "Communist" this week?Lost
No$47 @ 58.5¢
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?Won
No$170 @ 44.8¢
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?Lost
Yes$27 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 9?Lost
Yes$191 @ 12.3¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$5 @ 84.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$30 @ 15.0¢
Was Trump hacked?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Won
Yes$70 @ 35.0¢
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?Won
No$72 @ 72.0¢
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?Lost
Yes$135 @ 26.8¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Lost
No$61 @ 21.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on March 28?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will the Labor Party win by 40 or more seats?Won
Yes$30 @ 12.3¢
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?Won
No$23 @ 42.4¢
Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%?Lost
Yes$13 @ 3.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 23?Won
No$6 @ 46.7¢
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?Won
Yes$32 @ 52.6¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Lost
No$19 @ 4.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 21?Lost
Yes$9 @ 20.0¢
Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$25 @ 0.9¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$15 @ 28.5¢
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?Lost
Yes$36 @ 18.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-07 House election by 15%-18%?	Politics	Yes	$91	82.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-01 House election by 70%-75%?	Politics	No	$70	84.6¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-07 House election by 9%-12%?	Politics	No	$55	88.2¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-01 House election by 9%-12%?	Politics	Yes	$52	46.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-20 House election by 45%-50%?	Politics	No	$37	90.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-07 House election by 6%-9%?	Politics	Yes	$36	5.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-12 House election by 30%-35%?	Politics	Yes	$34	82.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-02 House election by 0%-5%?	Politics	Yes	$32	28.2¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$29	1.6¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-04 House election by 40%-45%?	Politics	Yes	$24	6.5¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$24	2.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-02 House election by 55%-60%?	Politics	No	$24	91.8¢
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$23	2.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-04 House election by 15%-20%?	Politics	Yes	$22	17.6¢
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$20	2.8¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-01 House election by 35%-45%?	Politics	No	$18	87.4¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$17	3.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-04 House election by 20%-25%?	Politics	No	$17	86.8¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-27 House election by 0%-5%?	Politics	No	$16	90.4¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-06 House election by 35%-40%?	Politics	No	$15	89.8¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-03 House election by 40%-45%?	Politics	No	$14	86.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?	Politics	Yes	$13	4.5¢
Will Stephen Kinnock be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Politics	Yes	$13	1.2¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$11	0.4¢
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$11	0.7¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WA-06 House election by 5%-10%?	Politics	No	$10	90.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WY-AL House election by 45%-50%?	Politics	Yes	$10	4.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 15%-20%?	Politics	Yes	$10	2.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 30%-35%?	Politics	Yes	$9	2.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	Politics	Yes	$8	3.5¢

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-07 House election by 15%-18%?Politics
Yes$91 @ 82.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-01 House election by 70%-75%?Politics
No$70 @ 84.6¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-07 House election by 9%-12%?Politics
No$55 @ 88.2¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-01 House election by 9%-12%?Politics
Yes$52 @ 46.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-20 House election by 45%-50%?Politics
No$37 @ 90.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-07 House election by 6%-9%?Politics
Yes$36 @ 5.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-12 House election by 30%-35%?Politics
Yes$34 @ 82.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-02 House election by 0%-5%?Politics
Yes$32 @ 28.2¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$29 @ 1.6¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-04 House election by 40%-45%?Politics
Yes$24 @ 6.5¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$24 @ 2.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-02 House election by 55%-60%?Politics
No$24 @ 91.8¢
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$23 @ 2.9¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-04 House election by 15%-20%?Politics
Yes$22 @ 17.6¢
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$20 @ 2.8¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-01 House election by 35%-45%?Politics
No$18 @ 87.4¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$17 @ 3.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-04 House election by 20%-25%?Politics
No$17 @ 86.8¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CA-27 House election by 0%-5%?Politics
No$16 @ 90.4¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-06 House election by 35%-40%?Politics
No$15 @ 89.8¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-03 House election by 40%-45%?Politics
No$14 @ 86.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?Politics
Yes$13 @ 4.5¢
Will Stephen Kinnock be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?Politics
Yes$13 @ 1.2¢
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$11 @ 0.4¢
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$11 @ 0.7¢
Will a Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WA-06 House election by 5%-10%?Politics
No$10 @ 90.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WY-AL House election by 45%-50%?Politics
Yes$10 @ 4.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 15%-20%?Politics
Yes$10 @ 2.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 30%-35%?Politics
Yes$9 @ 2.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?Politics
Yes$8 @ 3.5¢