← Smart money
0xc3d0…2d17
SharpEdge
+18.3pp
ROI
+55%
Win rate
80% @ 61.7¢
Brier
0.158
Resolved
55
Avg size
$125
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 56% (5/9) | +55% | 9 |
| Tech | 100% (1/1) | +13% | 1 |
- Other9 bets
- Hit rate
- 56% (5/9)
- ROI
- +55%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +13%
Track record
60% hit · 6/10| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Yes | $66 | 60.4¢ | Lost |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | $4 | 79.0¢ | Lost |
| Lakers vs. Trail Blazers | Trail Blazers | $38 | 76.0¢ | Won |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | $5 | 82.0¢ | Won |
| Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? | No | $39 | 34.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | $5 | 88.2¢ | Won |
| Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election? | No | $66 | 88.2¢ | Won |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | No | $2.5k | 62.6¢ | Won |
| Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | No | $66 | 60.3¢ | Lost |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $4.1k | 62.9¢ | Won |
- Yes$66 @ 60.4¢
- No$4 @ 79.0¢
- Trail Blazers$38 @ 76.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 82.0¢
- No$39 @ 34.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 88.2¢
- No$66 @ 88.2¢
- No$2.5k @ 62.6¢
- No$66 @ 60.3¢
- Yes$4.1k @ 62.9¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Geopolitics | No | $31 | 92.8¢ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | No | $6 | 99.2¢ |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Tech | No | $6 | 99.1¢ |
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$31 @ 92.8¢
- No$6 @ 99.2¢
- No$6 @ 99.1¢