← Smart money
0xc381…a661
SharpEdge
+16.0pp
ROI
+13%
Win rate
67% @ 50.7¢
Brier
0.050
Resolved
132
Avg size
$314
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 60% (3/5) | +13% | 5 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +20% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +11% | 1 |
- Other5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- +13%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +20%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +11%
Track record
71% hit · 5/7| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | $623 | 83.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | No | $17.0k | 81.3¢ | Won |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Yes | $2.1k | 0.1¢ | Lost |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | $196 | 75.9¢ | Won |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | $2.2k | 0.1¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | $14.2k | 73.6¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $29.4k | 89.7¢ | Won |
- No$623 @ 83.0¢
- No$17.0k @ 81.3¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 0.1¢
- No$196 @ 75.9¢
- No$2.2k @ 0.1¢
- No$14.2k @ 73.6¢
- No$29.4k @ 89.7¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Politics | No | $8.3k | 99.2¢ |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July? | — | No | $1.2k | 97.7¢ |
| Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $9 | 95.3¢ |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | Tech | No | $5 | 19.4¢ |
- No$8.3k @ 99.2¢
- No$1.2k @ 97.7¢
- No$9 @ 95.3¢
- No$5 @ 19.4¢