0xc327…31f5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc327ccdeabf1bdbd98722c4c2a360f2c3fdc31f5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+5.8pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

34% @ 28.5¢

Brier

0.236

Resolved

1659

Avg size

$15

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	31% (60/194)	-13%	194
Politics	34% (31/92)	+89%	92
Tech	11% (3/28)	-68%	28
Geopolitics	41% (9/22)	-1%	22
Sports	44% (4/9)	-7%	9
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+335%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+109%	1

Other194 bets
Hit rate
31% (60/194)
ROI
-13%
Politics92 bets
Hit rate
34% (31/92)
ROI
+89%
Tech28 bets
Hit rate
11% (3/28)
ROI
-68%
Geopolitics22 bets
Hit rate
41% (9/22)
ROI
-1%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-7%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+335%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+109%

Track record

31% hit · 109/349

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$44	55.0¢	Won
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?	No	$8	7.0¢	Lost
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	Yes	$53	32.5¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$76	33.8¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$72	31.9¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	$52	70.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$177	45.4¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	No	$83	8.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$132	35.1¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	$15	15.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?	Yes	$25	12.0¢	Lost
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$14	71.0¢	Lost
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $18B by June 30?	No	$12	8.6¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$39	43.0¢	Lost
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?	No	$59	44.8¢	Won
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $750M?	No	$30	23.0¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	No	$96	47.8¢	Won
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$120	24.2¢	Lost
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?	No	$32	34.6¢	Lost
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	Yes	$34	17.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$234	19.4¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$48	8.6¢	Lost
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	No	$147	45.7¢	Won
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	$131	32.4¢	Lost
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$3	0.8¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$30	8.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$25	6.5¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	$42	52.0¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$34	31.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	No	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	$94	10.5¢	Lost
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	No	$45	7.5¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$136	85.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?	No	$12	5.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$142	74.9¢	Lost
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$6	1.5¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$184	42.4¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$106	19.9¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$26	4.2¢	Lost
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$43	20.4¢	Won
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?	Yes	$8	54.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$21	9.0¢	Lost
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$71	71.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$71	0.8¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$65	59.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$26	13.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	$63	35.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	No	$51	28.3¢	Lost
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$10	0.6¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?	Yes	$14	25.0¢	Won

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$44 @ 55.0¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?Lost
No$8 @ 7.0¢
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Won
Yes$53 @ 32.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$76 @ 33.8¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$72 @ 31.9¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
No$52 @ 70.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$177 @ 45.4¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Lost
No$83 @ 8.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$132 @ 35.1¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
No$15 @ 15.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February?Lost
Yes$25 @ 12.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$14 @ 71.0¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $18B by June 30?Lost
No$12 @ 8.6¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$39 @ 43.0¢
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?Won
No$59 @ 44.8¢
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $750M?Lost
No$30 @ 23.0¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Won
No$96 @ 47.8¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$120 @ 24.2¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?Lost
No$32 @ 34.6¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Lost
Yes$34 @ 17.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$234 @ 19.4¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$48 @ 8.6¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?Won
No$147 @ 45.7¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Lost
No$131 @ 32.4¢
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.8¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$30 @ 8.1¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$25 @ 6.5¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Lost
No$42 @ 52.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$34 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Lost
No$2 @ 0.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Lost
No$94 @ 10.5¢
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?Lost
No$45 @ 7.5¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$136 @ 85.0¢
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 5.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$142 @ 74.9¢
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.5¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$184 @ 42.4¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$106 @ 19.9¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 4.2¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$43 @ 20.4¢
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 54.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 9.0¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$71 @ 71.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$71 @ 0.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$65 @ 59.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$26 @ 13.0¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Won
No$63 @ 35.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Lost
No$51 @ 28.3¢
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.6¢
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 25.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$250	20.1¢
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$160	80.0¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$141	55.3¢
Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$136	20.7¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$133	54.5¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by September 30?	Other	No	$129	75.9¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$111	58.6¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Tech	No	$105	49.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$100	66.5¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$98	44.6¢
Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?	Tech	No	$98	42.5¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$96	70.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	No	$94	59.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$85	18.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$75	32.8¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$62	54.7¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$60	43.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Politics	Yes	$60	50.0¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$53	35.3¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$52	46.1¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$52	16.1¢
Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by October 31?	Politics	No	$47	77.7¢
Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Tech	No	$44	73.0¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$41	10.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$35	59.0¢
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$32	16.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$32	21.8¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$29	19.6¢
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$29	22.1¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Politics	Yes	$20	2.2¢

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$250 @ 20.1¢
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$160 @ 80.0¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?Tech
Yes$141 @ 55.3¢
Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$136 @ 20.7¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$133 @ 54.5¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by September 30?Other
No$129 @ 75.9¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$111 @ 58.6¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech
No$105 @ 49.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$100 @ 66.5¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Tech
Yes$98 @ 44.6¢
Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?Tech
No$98 @ 42.5¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$96 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
No$94 @ 59.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
Yes$85 @ 18.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$75 @ 32.8¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$62 @ 54.7¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$60 @ 43.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Politics
Yes$60 @ 50.0¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$53 @ 35.3¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$52 @ 46.1¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?Tech
Yes$52 @ 16.1¢
Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by October 31?Politics
No$47 @ 77.7¢
Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Tech
No$44 @ 73.0¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$41 @ 10.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$35 @ 59.0¢
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?Tech
No$32 @ 16.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027?Tech
Yes$32 @ 21.8¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?Tech
Yes$29 @ 19.6¢
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$29 @ 22.1¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Politics
Yes$20 @ 2.2¢