0xc326…1db1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc3262aeb0bd81deab067726635f5b5bd39201db1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

40% @ 34.4¢

Brier

0.111

Resolved

3422

Avg size

$20

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Tech	46% (68/147)	-3%	147
Other	51% (40/78)	+10%	78
Politics	62% (21/34)	+21%	34
Geopolitics	36% (8/22)	+64%	22
Sports	46% (6/13)	-43%	13
Economy	44% (4/9)	-5%	9
Science	100% (1/1)	+15%	1

Tech147 bets
Hit rate
46% (68/147)
ROI
-3%
Other78 bets
Hit rate
51% (40/78)
ROI
+10%
Politics34 bets
Hit rate
62% (21/34)
ROI
+21%
Geopolitics22 bets
Hit rate
36% (8/22)
ROI
+64%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
46% (6/13)
ROI
-43%
Economy9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-5%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%

Track record

49% hit · 148/304

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$406	64.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	$131	84.7¢	Won
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$4	1.7¢	Lost
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	Yes	$152	76.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$133	66.0¢	Won
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$56	29.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$13	66.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	$358	59.4¢	Lost
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	42.5¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$230	43.8¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$448	80.2¢	Won
Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$9	2.8¢	Lost
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$849	16.4¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$1000	76.8¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$246	18.9¢	Lost
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	$3.2k	76.8¢	Won
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$129	71.6¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	$171	87.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$64	16.0¢	Lost
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$8	1.1¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$1.2k	85.6¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$255	83.6¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$153	76.5¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$512	77.2¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$73	11.6¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	No	$80	90.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$472	70.6¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$8	1.5¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$121	60.5¢	Won
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$57	31.6¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$75	16.6¢	Lost
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	66.9¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$44	16.5¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$35	43.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$18	4.4¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$301	88.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$282	51.2¢	Won
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	$145	59.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$292	71.7¢	Won
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	No	$57	68.4¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	$26	13.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	$229	20.5¢	Won
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$132	78.1¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$234	77.9¢	Won
Will any other model be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$24	6.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$336	74.1¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	$294	89.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$747	17.9¢	Lost
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$216	50.8¢	Won

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$406 @ 64.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Won
No$131 @ 84.7¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.7¢
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?Won
Yes$152 @ 76.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$133 @ 66.0¢
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$56 @ 29.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$13 @ 66.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
No$358 @ 59.4¢
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 42.5¢
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Lost
Yes$230 @ 43.8¢
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$448 @ 80.2¢
Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.8¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$849 @ 16.4¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$1000 @ 76.8¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$246 @ 18.9¢
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?Won
No$3.2k @ 76.8¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$129 @ 71.6¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Won
No$171 @ 87.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$64 @ 16.0¢
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.1¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$1.2k @ 85.6¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$255 @ 83.6¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$153 @ 76.5¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$512 @ 77.2¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$73 @ 11.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Won
No$80 @ 90.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$472 @ 70.6¢
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.5¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$121 @ 60.5¢
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$57 @ 31.6¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 16.6¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 66.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$44 @ 16.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 43.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 4.4¢
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Won
Yes$301 @ 88.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$282 @ 51.2¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Lost
No$145 @ 59.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$292 @ 71.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?Won
No$57 @ 68.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 13.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
No$229 @ 20.5¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$132 @ 78.1¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$234 @ 77.9¢
Will any other model be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$24 @ 6.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$336 @ 74.1¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?Won
No$294 @ 89.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$747 @ 17.9¢
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Won
No$216 @ 50.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$556	65.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$444	57.8¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$292	66.9¢
Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$283	81.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$217	62.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$200	40.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Tech	No	$192	78.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$186	80.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$164	67.8¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$150	75.1¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$139	74.7¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$127	50.8¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$126	14.4¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$119	40.3¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$113	56.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$105	36.3¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$90	36.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?	Tech	No	$82	87.0¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$78	31.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$77	51.2¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	No	$70	23.5¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$62	33.9¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$61	61.3¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$57	22.9¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$54	38.1¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$52	22.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$47	26.2¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$45	58.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$43	29.2¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$42	25.6¢

Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$556 @ 65.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$444 @ 57.8¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$292 @ 66.9¢
Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026?Tech
No$283 @ 81.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$217 @ 62.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$200 @ 40.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Tech
No$192 @ 78.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$186 @ 80.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$164 @ 67.8¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$150 @ 75.1¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$139 @ 74.7¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$127 @ 50.8¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$126 @ 14.4¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$119 @ 40.3¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$113 @ 56.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$105 @ 36.3¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$90 @ 36.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?Tech
No$82 @ 87.0¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$78 @ 31.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$77 @ 51.2¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
No$70 @ 23.5¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$62 @ 33.9¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$61 @ 61.3¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$57 @ 22.9¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$54 @ 38.1¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$52 @ 22.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$47 @ 26.2¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$45 @ 58.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$43 @ 29.2¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$42 @ 25.6¢