← Smart money
0xc2f7…aef9
Edge
-0.1pp
ROI
-4%
Win rate
29% @ 29.4¢
Brier
0.116
Resolved
991
Avg size
$53
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 42% (57/137) | +12% | 137 |
| Sports | 21% (15/70) | -51% | 70 |
| Politics | 50% (20/40) | +11% | 40 |
| Geopolitics | 6% (1/16) | -98% | 16 |
| Tech | 29% (2/7) | -37% | 7 |
- Other137 bets
- Hit rate
- 42% (57/137)
- ROI
- +12%
- Sports70 bets
- Hit rate
- 21% (15/70)
- ROI
- -51%
- Politics40 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (20/40)
- ROI
- +11%
- Geopolitics16 bets
- Hit rate
- 6% (1/16)
- ROI
- -98%
- Tech7 bets
- Hit rate
- 29% (2/7)
- ROI
- -37%
Track record
35% hit · 95/270- Yes$3 @ 59.0¢
- No$58 @ 71.1¢
- Yes$180 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$13 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$51 @ 8.8¢
- Over$15 @ 15.0¢
- Yes$4.3k @ 26.6¢
- Yes$3 @ 3.4¢
- Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$579 @ 10.5¢
- Over$3 @ 22.7¢
- Yes$269 @ 51.4¢
- Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
- No$360 @ 81.8¢
- Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
- No$52 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$107 @ 2.7¢
- Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$22 @ 4.1¢
- No$358 @ 71.0¢
- Argentina$6 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$457 @ 22.8¢
- Yes$150 @ 15.0¢
- Cavaliers$739 @ 89.0¢
- Pistons$115 @ 37.0¢
- Yes$279 @ 2.8¢
- Argentina$8 @ 77.1¢
- Cabo Verde$2 @ 6.3¢
- Lakers$2 @ 1.9¢
- Thunder$558 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 7.7¢
- Cavaliers$22 @ 36.3¢
- Japan$8 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
- Over$4 @ 42.0¢
- Cavaliers$55 @ 39.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
- Yes$136 @ 4.2¢
- No$886 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$31 @ 30.3¢
- Over$26 @ 13.0¢
- No$388 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$115 @ 22.5¢
- Yes$10 @ 5.4¢
- No$302 @ 75.0¢
- Lakers$48 @ 37.0¢
- Spurs$49 @ 39.8¢
- Yes$28 @ 27.0¢
- No$398 @ 79.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $807 | 16.1¢ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $654 | 81.8¢ |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $531 | 32.9¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $481 | 74.0¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $80 | 26.6¢ |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $39 | 44.4¢ |
| Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $27 | 10.8¢ |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | Crypto | Yes | $25 | 24.0¢ |
| Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? | Politics | No | $19 | 95.1¢ |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Politics | No | $19 | 38.0¢ |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | Crypto | Yes | $8 | 7.8¢ |
- Yes$807 @ 16.1¢
- Yes$654 @ 81.8¢
- Yes$531 @ 32.9¢
- No$481 @ 74.0¢
- Yes$80 @ 26.6¢
- Yes$39 @ 44.4¢
- Yes$27 @ 10.8¢
- Yes$25 @ 24.0¢
- No$19 @ 95.1¢
- Will Trump and Putin not meet?PoliticsNo$19 @ 38.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 7.8¢