← Smart money
0xc2da…4900
ProfitableEdge
+62.7pp
ROI
+232%
Win rate
90% @ 27.4¢
Brier
0.482
Resolved
111
Avg size
$98
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 67% (4/6) | +267% | 6 |
| Other | 100% (3/3) | +60% | 3 |
| Tech | 50% (1/2) | -84% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics6 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (4/6)
- ROI
- +267%
- Other3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +60%
- Tech2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -84%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
67% hit · 8/12| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | Yes | $94 | 93.8¢ | Won |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22? | No | $56 | 2.5¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | Yes | $100 | 42.2¢ | Won |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? | Yes | $8.7k | 25.2¢ | Won |
| Will Trump say "Ballroom" during his Ribbon Cutting Ceremony? | No | $312 | 80.0¢ | Won |
| Will Trump say "Alaska" this week? | Yes | $208 | 57.5¢ | Won |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026? | Yes | $739 | 67.6¢ | Won |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? | Yes | $536 | 12.8¢ | Lost |
| Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech? | No | $35 | 89.7¢ | Lost |
| Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026? | Yes | $16 | 21.6¢ | Lost |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by September 30, 2026? | No | $5 | 79.0¢ | Won |
| Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30? | No | $208 | 89.2¢ | Won |
- Yes$94 @ 93.8¢
- No$56 @ 2.5¢
- Yes$100 @ 42.2¢
- Yes$8.7k @ 25.2¢
- No$312 @ 80.0¢
- Yes$208 @ 57.5¢
- Yes$739 @ 67.6¢
- Yes$536 @ 12.8¢
- No$35 @ 89.7¢
- Yes$16 @ 21.6¢
- No$5 @ 79.0¢
- No$208 @ 89.2¢
Recent trades
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