0xc266…2f2f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc26629ee1555084e74c45847e9179880cb4d2f2f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-9.8pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

4% @ 13.7¢

Brier

0.041

Resolved

696

Avg size

$186

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	26% (10/38)	+115%	38
Politics	20% (3/15)	-80%	15
Sports	25% (1/4)	-59%	4
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3

Other38 bets
Hit rate
26% (10/38)
ROI
+115%
Politics15 bets
Hit rate
20% (3/15)
ROI
-80%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-59%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%

Track record

23% hit · 14/60

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
France vs. England: Both Teams to Score	No	$1000	24.9¢	Lost
France vs. England: O/U 7.5	Under	$1.8k	59.9¢	Lost
France vs. England: O/U 5.5	Under	$1000	32.5¢	Lost
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	$159	6.0¢	Lost
Breel Embolo: 5+ shots	Yes	$30	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	16.2¢	Lost
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5	Over	$1000	28.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$250	3.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$3.5k	46.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$50	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$714	0.8¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$5.0k	10.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$9.2k	32.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$8.3k	66.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	16.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$5.0k	66.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	$7	3.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	Yes	$10	0.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$2.8k	25.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$2.0k	2.9¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$5.6k	36.0¢	Won
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	$201	89.7¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	Yes	$1000	22.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	$3.7k	9.9¢	Won
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	$209	14.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$350	1.5¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	$100	3.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$2.6k	41.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$4.5k	8.5¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$6.5k	42.9¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Over	$511	29.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$8.7k	11.4¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	No	$438	35.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$3.3k	69.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$16.1k	7.3¢	Lost
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	No	$1.5k	29.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$100	5.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	$802	4.3¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	$308	8.7¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	$8.1k	7.8¢	Lost
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Over	$21	2.8¢	Lost
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	Real Madrid CF	$1000	63.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.0k	13.8¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$3.0k	26.2¢	Lost
France vs. England: O/U 8.5	Under	$1.9k	50.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?	No	$399	7.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?	Yes	$5	0.2¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?	No	$99	0.9¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.3k	6.1¢	Lost
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	Switzerland	$1000	47.0¢	Won

France vs. England: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$1000 @ 24.9¢
France vs. England: O/U 7.5Lost
Under$1.8k @ 59.9¢
France vs. England: O/U 5.5Lost
Under$1000 @ 32.5¢
Exact Score: Any Other Score?Lost
Yes$159 @ 6.0¢
Breel Embolo: 5+ shotsLost
Yes$30 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 16.2¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5Lost
Over$1000 @ 28.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$250 @ 3.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$3.5k @ 46.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$50 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$714 @ 0.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$5.0k @ 10.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$9.2k @ 32.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$8.3k @ 66.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 16.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$5.0k @ 66.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 25.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 2.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$5.6k @ 36.0¢
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Won
Spain$201 @ 89.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Lost
Yes$1000 @ 22.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 9.9¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?Won
Yes$209 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$350 @ 1.5¢
Spurs vs. Trail BlazersLost
Trail Blazers$100 @ 3.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$2.6k @ 41.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.5k @ 8.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$6.5k @ 42.9¢
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5Won
Over$511 @ 29.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
Yes$8.7k @ 11.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
No$438 @ 35.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$3.3k @ 69.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$16.1k @ 7.3¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?Lost
No$1.5k @ 29.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 5.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$802 @ 4.3¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?Lost
Yes$308 @ 8.7¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Lost
Yes$8.1k @ 7.8¢
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$21 @ 2.8¢
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Won
Real Madrid CF$1000 @ 63.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 13.8¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 26.2¢
France vs. England: O/U 8.5Lost
Under$1.9k @ 50.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?Lost
No$399 @ 7.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?Lost
No$99 @ 0.9¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 6.1¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to AdvanceWon
Switzerland$1000 @ 47.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8.9k	6.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	Politics	No	$5.9k	21.9¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	—	Yes	$3.0k	26.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$2.7k	16.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	16.2¢
France vs. England: O/U 8.5	—	Under	$1.9k	50.9¢
France vs. England: O/U 7.5	—	Under	$1.8k	59.9¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	9.4¢
France vs. England: O/U 5.5	—	Under	$1000	32.5¢
France vs. England: Both Teams to Score	—	No	$1000	24.9¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime?	—	Yes	$1000	38.8¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5	—	Over	$1000	28.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	—	Yes	$970	49.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$801	4.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?	Geopolitics	No	$399	7.3¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	—	Yes	$398	27.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	—	Yes	$300	8.7¢
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$195	7.0¢
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	—	Yes	$159	6.0¢
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?	—	Yes	$150	13.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?	Geopolitics	No	$99	0.9¢
Breel Embolo: 5+ shots	—	Yes	$30	4.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	Politics	Yes	$21	11.0¢
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	—	Over	$20	2.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	—	Yes	$7	3.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?	—	Yes	$5	0.2¢

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$8.9k @ 6.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Politics
No$5.9k @ 21.9¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?—
Yes$3.0k @ 26.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$2.7k @ 16.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.3k @ 16.2¢
France vs. England: O/U 8.5—
Under$1.9k @ 50.9¢
France vs. England: O/U 7.5—
Under$1.8k @ 59.9¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 9.4¢
France vs. England: O/U 5.5—
Under$1000 @ 32.5¢
France vs. England: Both Teams to Score—
No$1000 @ 24.9¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime?—
Yes$1000 @ 38.8¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5—
Over$1000 @ 28.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?—
Yes$970 @ 49.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?Politics
Yes$801 @ 4.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?Geopolitics
No$399 @ 7.3¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?—
Yes$398 @ 27.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?—
Yes$300 @ 8.7¢
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$195 @ 7.0¢
Exact Score: Any Other Score?—
Yes$159 @ 6.0¢
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?—
Yes$150 @ 13.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?Geopolitics
No$99 @ 0.9¢
Breel Embolo: 5+ shots—
Yes$30 @ 4.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Politics
Yes$21 @ 11.0¢
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5—
Over$20 @ 2.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?—
Yes$7 @ 3.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?—
Yes$5 @ 0.2¢