0xc1d3…7d51

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc1d31af32690ecc52f9c372d1dc16dea79a77d51
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-7.2pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

35% @ 42.5¢

Brier

0.166

Resolved

309

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (63/106)	-8%	106
Politics	51% (23/45)	+31%	45
Sports	40% (2/5)	+144%	5
Geopolitics	60% (3/5)	-42%	5
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+11%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+21%	1

Other106 bets
Hit rate
59% (63/106)
ROI
-8%
Politics45 bets
Hit rate
51% (23/45)
ROI
+31%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+144%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-42%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+11%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+21%

Track record

57% hit · 93/164

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	$12	42.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$31	80.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$12	16.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$39	37.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$10	5.4¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$4	81.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$1	23.0¢	Lost
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$10	77.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$14	55.8¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$1	29.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)	Pistons	$10	51.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?	No	$9	85.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$42	25.2¢	Lost
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	$10	45.0¢	Lost
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In	Team WE	$10	38.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$10	84.0¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$2	7.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$45	27.1¢	Won
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?	No	$10	56.0¢	Lost
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Dplus KIA	$10	35.0¢	Lost
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	$1	7.9¢	Lost
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$9	84.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$2	40.0¢	Lost
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$4	89.0¢	Won
Jari Vandeputte: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$10	53.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$17	32.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$16	47.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	Yes	$4	80.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	LGD Gaming	$2	32.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?	No	$1	16.0¢	Won
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Top Esports	$10	48.0¢	Lost
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Team WE	$10	17.0¢	Won
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	$10	42.0¢	Won
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	No	$17	82.7¢	Won
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	$4	85.0¢	Won
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5	Over	$10	88.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$14	35.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$16	73.1¢	Lost
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$10	78.0¢	Won
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	$10	66.0¢	Won
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?	Yes	$20	51.5¢	Lost
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	$18	41.4¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$3	61.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	$4	8.3¢	Lost

Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?Won
Yes$12 @ 42.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 80.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$39 @ 37.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$4 @ 81.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$10 @ 77.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$14 @ 55.8¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Won
Pistons$10 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Won
No$9 @ 85.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$42 @ 25.2¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Cavaliers vs. PistonsLost
Pistons$10 @ 45.0¢
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-InWon
Team WE$10 @ 38.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$4 @ 85.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$45 @ 27.1¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17?Lost
No$10 @ 56.0¢
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2Lost
Dplus KIA$10 @ 35.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Lost
No$1 @ 7.9¢
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$9 @ 84.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 40.0¢
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$4 @ 89.0¢
Jari Vandeputte: Anytime GoalscorerLost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$10 @ 53.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 32.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$16 @ 47.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 80.0¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsLost
LGD Gaming$2 @ 32.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?Won
No$1 @ 16.0¢
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendLost
Top Esports$10 @ 48.0¢
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsWon
Team WE$10 @ 17.0¢
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-13?Won
Yes$10 @ 42.0¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?Won
No$17 @ 82.7¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Won
Yes$4 @ 85.0¢
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5Won
Over$10 @ 88.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 35.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 73.1¢
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$10 @ 78.0¢
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime GoalscorerWon
Yes$10 @ 66.0¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?Lost
Yes$20 @ 51.5¢
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10?Lost
Yes$18 @ 41.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 61.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	Politics	No	$41	6.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?	—	No	$34	97.1¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?	—	No	$31	93.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?	—	No	$26	86.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?	—	No	$15	97.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$13	36.7¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	—	Yes	$10	19.4¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?	—	No	$10	94.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$9	37.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	—	No	$5	39.0¢
Will Solana reach $110 in July?	—	No	$5	91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$4	8.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$3	21.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	—	No	$3	11.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in July?	—	No	$3	51.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?	—	Yes	$2	12.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?	—	Yes	$2	15.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	28.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	—	Yes	$1	3.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	2.3¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?	—	Yes	$0	13.0¢

Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?Politics
No$41 @ 6.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?—
No$34 @ 97.1¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?—
No$31 @ 93.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?—
No$26 @ 86.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?—
No$15 @ 97.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Politics
Yes$13 @ 36.7¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?—
Yes$10 @ 19.4¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?—
No$10 @ 94.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$9 @ 37.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?—
No$5 @ 39.0¢
Will Solana reach $110 in July?—
No$5 @ 91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
Yes$4 @ 8.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Politics
Yes$3 @ 21.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?—
No$3 @ 11.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in July?—
No$3 @ 51.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?—
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?—
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 28.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?—
Yes$1 @ 3.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?—
Yes$0 @ 13.0¢