← Smart money
0xc1b7…e00b
ProfitableEdge
+16.8pp
ROI
+36%
Win rate
33% @ 16.6¢
Brier
0.199
Resolved
42
Avg size
$528
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50% (5/10) | +172% | 10 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/3) | -100% | 3 |
| Politics | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
- Other10 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (5/10)
- ROI
- +172%
- Geopolitics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/3)
- ROI
- -100%
- Politics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
33% hit · 5/15| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | $487 | 2.4¢ | Lost |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | $3.9k | 27.2¢ | Won |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | $275 | 82.0¢ | Won |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Yes | $8.1k | 21.4¢ | Lost |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | $1.5k | 20.2¢ | Won |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | $537 | 7.0¢ | Lost |
| Starmer out in 2025? | Yes | $193 | 7.9¢ | Lost |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition | No | $100 | 7.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | $200 | 4.4¢ | Lost |
| Will Don Lemon be criminally charged? | Yes | $302 | 26.3¢ | Won |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | $1.9k | 6.0¢ | Lost |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | Yes | $200 | 5.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | $1.8k | 11.9¢ | Lost |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | $1.3k | 18.6¢ | Won |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | Yes | $1.4k | 13.1¢ | Lost |
- Yes$487 @ 2.4¢
- Yes$3.9k @ 27.2¢
- No$275 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$8.1k @ 21.4¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 20.2¢
- Yes$537 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$193 @ 7.9¢
- No$100 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$200 @ 4.4¢
- Yes$302 @ 26.3¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 6.0¢
- Yes$200 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 11.9¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 18.6¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 13.1¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Politics | No | $3.1k | 36.2¢ |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | Geopolitics | Yes | $2.5k | 50.9¢ |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | Politics | Yes | $1.1k | 10.2¢ |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $200 | 10.0¢ |
- No$3.1k @ 36.2¢
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?GeopoliticsYes$2.5k @ 50.9¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 10.2¢
- Yes$200 @ 10.0¢