0xc0b6…3a92

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.5pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

42% @ 34.8¢

Brier

0.193

Resolved

814

Avg size

$34

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (69/167)	+15%	167
Politics	40% (37/93)	+19%	93
Sports	26% (13/50)	-11%	50
Geopolitics	31% (4/13)	-11%	13
Tech	38% (3/8)	-42%	8
Crypto	38% (3/8)	-11%	8
Culture	50% (2/4)	+28%	4
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other167 bets
Hit rate
41% (69/167)
ROI
+15%
Politics93 bets
Hit rate
40% (37/93)
ROI
+19%
Sports50 bets
Hit rate
26% (13/50)
ROI
-11%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
31% (4/13)
ROI
-11%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-42%
Crypto8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-11%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+28%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 131/344

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$4	0.8¢	Lost
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	$15	37.5¢	Won
Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch?	No	$28	43.5¢	Won
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	$13	13.5¢	Lost
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?	No	$30	10.1¢	Lost
Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31?	No	$41	58.0¢	Lost
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?	Yes	$37	33.3¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$123	40.6¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$63	2.1¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$20	43.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$42	16.6¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$82	40.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A	Team Falcons	$55	53.0¢	Won
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$69	34.0¢	Lost
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	$149	59.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Knicks	Knicks	$68	34.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$22	24.8¢	Lost
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Under	$119	39.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$95	54.0¢	Lost
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+?	No	$14	2.6¢	Lost
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5	Under	$51	15.0¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	No	$248	80.8¢	Won
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$27	5.9¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?	Yes	$9	10.6¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$86	57.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$193	64.3¢	Won
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	$22	20.0¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	$136	33.3¢	Lost
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 12?	No	$14	10.0¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$48	46.0¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?	No	$43	50.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$46	46.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$200	65.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$58	29.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$122	61.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$62	75.7¢	Won
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Over	$101	67.0¢	Lost
Ducks vs. Wild	Ducks	$51	59.5¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5	Over	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?	No	$3	58.0¢	Won
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?	Yes	$13	13.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$245	21.2¢	Lost
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.9¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	No	$15	30.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$42	28.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$143	67.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$208	48.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$77	2.5¢	Lost
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?	Yes	$4	2.2¢	Lost

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.8¢
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?Won
No$15 @ 37.5¢
Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch?Won
No$28 @ 43.5¢
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 13.5¢
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?Lost
No$30 @ 10.1¢
Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31?Lost
No$41 @ 58.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?Lost
Yes$37 @ 33.3¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$123 @ 40.6¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$63 @ 2.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 43.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$42 @ 16.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$82 @ 40.0¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group AWon
Team Falcons$55 @ 53.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$69 @ 34.0¢
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5Won
Over$149 @ 59.0¢
Spurs vs. KnicksLost
Knicks$68 @ 34.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$22 @ 24.8¢
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5Won
Under$119 @ 39.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$95 @ 54.0¢
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+?Lost
No$14 @ 2.6¢
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5Lost
Under$51 @ 15.0¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?Won
No$248 @ 80.8¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$27 @ 5.9¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 10.6¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$86 @ 57.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$193 @ 64.3¢
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?Won
Yes$22 @ 20.0¢
Knicks vs. SpursLost
Spurs$136 @ 33.3¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 12?Lost
No$14 @ 10.0¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$48 @ 46.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?Won
No$43 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$46 @ 46.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$58 @ 29.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$122 @ 61.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$62 @ 75.7¢
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$101 @ 67.0¢
Ducks vs. WildLost
Ducks$51 @ 59.5¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5Lost
Over$1 @ 1.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?Won
No$3 @ 58.0¢
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?Lost
Yes$13 @ 13.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$245 @ 21.2¢
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?Won
No$15 @ 30.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$42 @ 28.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$143 @ 67.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$208 @ 48.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$77 @ 2.5¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$77	48.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$27	56.5¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27?	Geopolitics	No	$11	70.0¢

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$77 @ 48.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$27 @ 56.5¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27?Geopolitics
No$11 @ 70.0¢