0xc0b6…3a92

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.6pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

48% @ 39.0¢

Brier

0.189

Resolved

353

Avg size

$34

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (36/86)	+15%	86
Politics	52% (17/33)	+30%	33
Sports	20% (3/15)	-55%	15
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-3%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	+196%	2
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	+92%	2
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other86 bets
Hit rate
42% (36/86)
ROI
+15%
Politics33 bets
Hit rate
52% (17/33)
ROI
+30%
Sports15 bets
Hit rate
20% (3/15)
ROI
-55%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-3%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+196%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+92%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

42% hit · 59/142

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$123	40.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$22	24.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$95	54.0¢	Lost
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+?	No	$14	2.6¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$86	57.0¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$48	46.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$46	46.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$200	65.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$58	29.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$122	61.0¢	Won
Ducks vs. Wild	Ducks	$51	59.5¢	Lost
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?	No	$3	58.0¢	Won
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?	Yes	$13	13.0¢	Lost
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.9¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	No	$15	30.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$143	67.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$208	48.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$77	2.5¢	Lost
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?	Yes	$4	2.2¢	Lost
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	$296	52.0¢	Lost
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5	Over	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$48	47.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	No	$108	54.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$198	41.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	$142	70.1¢	Lost
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Weibo Gaming	$39	46.0¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$166	83.0¢	Won
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 1?	Yes	$4	1.8¢	Lost
Penguins vs. Capitals	Capitals	$100	57.1¢	Won
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11?	No	$54	36.0¢	Won
Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	Yes	$125	58.3¢	Won
Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31?	Yes	$16	5.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$77	51.0¢	Won
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$32	7.8¢	Won
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4?	Yes	$3	2.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$15	2.1¢	Lost
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8?	Yes	$4	2.1¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$83	16.0¢	Lost
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs	Team Liquid	$44	55.1¢	Lost
Canadiens vs. Flyers	Canadiens	$37	53.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$85	42.3¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$209	69.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$100	50.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$53	69.0¢	Won
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	$40	1.5¢	Lost
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$15	59.9¢	Won
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?	No	$200	83.0¢	Won
Kings vs. Kraken	Kings	$35	59.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$281	50.2¢	Won

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$123 @ 40.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$22 @ 24.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$95 @ 54.0¢
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+?Lost
No$14 @ 2.6¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$86 @ 57.0¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$48 @ 46.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$46 @ 46.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$58 @ 29.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$122 @ 61.0¢
Ducks vs. WildLost
Ducks$51 @ 59.5¢
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?Won
No$3 @ 58.0¢
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?Lost
Yes$13 @ 13.0¢
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?Won
No$15 @ 30.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$143 @ 67.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$208 @ 48.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$77 @ 2.5¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.2¢
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5Lost
Over$296 @ 52.0¢
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5Lost
Over$2 @ 7.0¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$48 @ 47.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Won
No$108 @ 54.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$198 @ 41.2¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Lost
Yes$142 @ 70.1¢
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendWon
Weibo Gaming$39 @ 46.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$166 @ 83.0¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 1?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.8¢
Penguins vs. CapitalsWon
Capitals$100 @ 57.1¢
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11?Won
No$54 @ 36.0¢
Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Won
Yes$125 @ 58.3¢
Will Gemini 3.2 not be released by May 31?Lost
Yes$16 @ 5.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$77 @ 51.0¢
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$32 @ 7.8¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 2.1¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.1¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$83 @ 16.0¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier PlayoffsLost
Team Liquid$44 @ 55.1¢
Canadiens vs. FlyersLost
Canadiens$37 @ 53.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$85 @ 42.3¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$209 @ 69.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$53 @ 69.0¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Lost
No$40 @ 1.5¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$15 @ 59.9¢
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 83.0¢
Kings vs. KrakenWon
Kings$35 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$281 @ 50.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$16	18.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	—	Yes	$6	6.2¢
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?	—	Yes	$2	1.2¢

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$16 @ 18.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?—
Yes$6 @ 6.2¢
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?—
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢