0xbfd8…0fe9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbfd8463ef064029a573bc6f3fb5a35500dd00fe9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.5pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

32% @ 25.0¢

Brier

0.172

Resolved

7411

Avg size

$44

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	32% (161/498)	+9%	498
Sports	27% (12/44)	-42%	44
Economy	100% (8/8)	+79%	8
Politics	33% (1/3)	-25%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other498 bets
Hit rate
32% (161/498)
ROI
+9%
Sports44 bets
Hit rate
27% (12/44)
ROI
-42%
Economy8 bets
Hit rate
100% (8/8)
ROI
+79%
Politics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-25%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

33% hit · 182/554

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $29m or more but less than $32m opening weekend?	Yes	$61	3.6¢	Lost
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$15	21.5¢	Lost
Will Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be 80 or greater?	Yes	$284	74.2¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%?	Yes	$155	1.3¢	Lost
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	No	$55	54.0¢	Won
"The Roses" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 65 and 69?	Yes	$25	35.4¢	Won
"Freakier Friday" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 70–89%?	No	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 42m?	Yes	$39	7.8¢	Lost
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?	Yes	$590	29.5¢	Lost
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	No	$423	3.0¢	Lost
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?	Yes	$7	14.0¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$647	5.4¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?	Yes	$10	16.5¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in August?	Yes	$4.1k	31.3¢	Lost
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Extreme Fear" on March 31?	Yes	$32	21.7¢	Won
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $290b and $300b on April 30?	Yes	$25	20.4¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March?	Yes	$26	33.0¢	Lost
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m?	Yes	$51	5.1¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$10	64.0¢	Won
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?	Yes	$20	33.0¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?	Yes	$2.2k	40.3¢	Won
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	No	$2.2k	72.2¢	Won
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23m and $26m?	Yes	$998	10.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $116k August 11–17?	Yes	$245	49.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?	No	$50	5.0¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$4.6k	6.2¢	Lost
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?	Yes	$10	6.1¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in May?	Yes	$3.3k	34.4¢	Won
Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in May?	Yes	$518	40.3¢	Won
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?	Yes	$930	11.6¢	Lost
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election?	Yes	$303	10.1¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?	Yes	$3	9.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$750	75.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?	Yes	$2.6k	64.5¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$346	33.7¢	Won
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $26m?	Yes	$1.3k	8.3¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	42.2¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	Yes	$5.0k	30.7¢	Won
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $117m?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?	Yes	$469	8.2¢	Lost
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?	No	$575	25.9¢	Lost
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?	Yes	$1.1k	37.4¢	Won
"The Roses" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60 and 64?	Yes	$38	54.0¢	Lost
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?	No	$207	23.0¢	Lost
"Americana" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 80%?	Yes	$5	50.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?	Yes	$1.5k	74.7¢	Won
Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday?	Yes	$264	58.5¢	Won
"One Battle After Another" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 90 and 94?	No	$172	77.4¢	Won

Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $29m or more but less than $32m opening weekend?Lost
Yes$61 @ 3.6¢
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$15 @ 21.5¢
Will Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be 80 or greater?Won
Yes$284 @ 74.2¢
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%?Lost
Yes$155 @ 1.3¢
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?Won
No$55 @ 54.0¢
"The Roses" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 65 and 69?Won
Yes$25 @ 35.4¢
"Freakier Friday" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 70–89%?Lost
No$1 @ 7.0¢
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 42m?Lost
Yes$39 @ 7.8¢
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?Lost
Yes$590 @ 29.5¢
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Lost
No$423 @ 3.0¢
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?Lost
Yes$7 @ 14.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$647 @ 5.4¢
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 16.5¢
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in August?Lost
Yes$4.1k @ 31.3¢
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Extreme Fear" on March 31?Won
Yes$32 @ 21.7¢
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $290b and $300b on April 30?Lost
Yes$25 @ 20.4¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March?Lost
Yes$26 @ 33.0¢
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $85m?Lost
Yes$51 @ 5.1¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$10 @ 64.0¢
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?Lost
Yes$20 @ 33.0¢
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 40.3¢
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Won
No$2.2k @ 72.2¢
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23m and $26m?Lost
Yes$998 @ 10.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $116k August 11–17?Won
Yes$245 @ 49.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?Lost
No$50 @ 5.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$4.6k @ 6.2¢
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.1¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in May?Won
Yes$3.3k @ 34.4¢
Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in May?Won
Yes$518 @ 40.3¢
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?Lost
Yes$930 @ 11.6¢
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean election?Lost
Yes$303 @ 10.1¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$750 @ 75.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 64.5¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$346 @ 33.7¢
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $26m?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 8.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 42.2¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?Lost
Yes$14 @ 14.0¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Won
Yes$5.0k @ 30.7¢
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $117m?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in November?Lost
Yes$469 @ 8.2¢
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?Lost
No$575 @ 25.9¢
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 37.4¢
"The Roses" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60 and 64?Lost
Yes$38 @ 54.0¢
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$207 @ 23.0¢
"Americana" Rotten Tomatoes score is less than 80%?Won
Yes$5 @ 50.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 74.7¢
Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday?Won
Yes$264 @ 58.5¢
"One Battle After Another" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 90 and 94?Won
No$172 @ 77.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	Economy	No	$47	47.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	No	$20	12.0¢

Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?Economy
No$47 @ 47.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
No$20 @ 12.0¢