0xbfd6…a888

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbfd60036b965a704fe63fd79886d1cf2573aa888
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+18.6pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

94% @ 75.1¢

Brier

0.111

Resolved

Avg size

$96

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	86% (12/14)	+14%	14
Tech	100% (3/3)	+22%	3
Economy	100% (3/3)	+19%	3
Politics	100% (2/2)	+17%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+30%	1

Other14 bets
Hit rate
86% (12/14)
ROI
+14%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+22%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+19%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+17%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+30%

Track record

91% hit · 21/23

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$500	76.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$50	87.0¢	Won
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$10	61.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$100	86.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$438	79.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$200	84.0¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	$100	88.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$655	81.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$100	77.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$548	70.0¢	Won
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?	No	$100	84.0¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$300	66.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$500	68.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	Yes	$20	59.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$200	87.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$101	88.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$480	69.2¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$40	89.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$55	79.5¢	Won
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$100	88.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	No	$100	93.0¢	Won
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?	Yes	$100	91.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$30	79.0¢	Won

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$500 @ 76.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$50 @ 87.0¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 61.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$100 @ 86.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$438 @ 79.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 84.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$655 @ 81.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$100 @ 77.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$548 @ 70.0¢
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?Won
No$100 @ 84.0¢
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Won
Yes$300 @ 66.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$500 @ 68.9¢
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 87.0¢
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Won
Yes$101 @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$480 @ 69.2¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$40 @ 89.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Won
Yes$55 @ 79.5¢
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Won
Yes$100 @ 88.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Won
No$100 @ 93.0¢
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?Won
Yes$100 @ 91.0¢
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
Yes$30 @ 79.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$500	80.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	No	$330	81.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$230	58.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	—	No	$120	85.7¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	No	$100	88.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Tech	No	$100	78.6¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$100	89.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$100	86.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$90	87.0¢
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	Economy	No	$80	85.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$50	76.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$40	89.4¢

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$500 @ 80.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
No$330 @ 81.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$230 @ 58.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?—
No$120 @ 85.7¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
No$100 @ 88.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
No$100 @ 78.6¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 89.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$100 @ 86.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$90 @ 87.0¢
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?Economy
No$80 @ 85.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$50 @ 76.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 89.4¢