0xbfba…9774

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbfba1136a9484c7eb8cd9bc6e08a3fa244b59774
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.0pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

45% @ 42.6¢

Brier

0.194

Resolved

3726

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Science	38% (427/1130)	+13%	1130
Other	52% (325/630)	+1%	630
Politics	50% (81/162)	+12%	162
Sports	81% (21/26)	+13%	26
Tech	50% (4/8)	-41%	8
Geopolitics	67% (4/6)	+37%	6
Culture	60% (3/5)	+6%	5
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Science1130 bets
Hit rate
38% (427/1130)
ROI
+13%
Other630 bets
Hit rate
52% (325/630)
ROI
+1%
Politics162 bets
Hit rate
50% (81/162)
ROI
+12%
Sports26 bets
Hit rate
81% (21/26)
ROI
+13%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-41%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+37%
Culture5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+6%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

44% hit · 865/1968

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 12?	Yes	$2	7.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 5?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 25?	Yes	$1	52.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 23?	Yes	$1	29.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on November 1?	Yes	$2	11.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 26?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 8?	Yes	$2	27.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on November 2?	Yes	$1	21.0¢	Lost
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	$5	73.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on November 4?	Yes	$1	8.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 29?	Yes	$2	29.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 3?	Yes	$4	43.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	Yes	$15	87.0¢	Won
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	No	$5	77.0¢	Won
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	No	$5	80.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or higher on October 31?	Yes	$1	7.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on November 5?	Yes	$3	10.3¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$9	79.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on November 4?	No	$2	47.6¢	Won
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	No	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on November 4?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 30?	No	$3	64.4¢	Won
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	No	$9	77.3¢	Won
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?	No	$5	44.4¢	Lost
Devils vs. Stars: O/U 6.5	Under	$2	41.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on November 10?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 22?	Yes	$1	37.0¢	Won
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5	Over	$4	70.0¢	Lost
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5	Under	$7	74.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	$1	16.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on November 6?	Yes	$1	12.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on November 7?	No	$1	27.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 28?	Yes	$1	36.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	Yes	$2	13.9¢	Lost
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	No	$4	6.9¢	Lost
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?	No	$8	78.0¢	Lost
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$5	80.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 3?	Yes	$5	21.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on November 10?	Yes	$2	4.3¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on November 1?	Yes	$1	38.0¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on October 31?	Yes	$3	38.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 27?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 7°C on October 29?	Yes	$1	49.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 28?	No	$1	76.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 28?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 10°C on November 9?	Yes	$1	42.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on November 10?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on October 23?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 24?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on November 8?	Yes	$6	5.4¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 12?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 5?Lost
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 25?Lost
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 23?Lost
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on November 1?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 8?Lost
Yes$2 @ 27.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on November 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?Won
No$5 @ 73.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on November 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 29?Won
Yes$2 @ 29.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 3?Won
Yes$4 @ 43.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 87.0¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Won
No$5 @ 77.0¢
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?Won
No$5 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or higher on October 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on November 5?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.3¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$9 @ 79.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on November 4?Won
No$2 @ 47.6¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Lost
No$1 @ 16.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on November 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 30?Won
No$3 @ 64.4¢
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?Won
No$9 @ 77.3¢
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?Lost
No$5 @ 44.4¢
Devils vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Lost
Under$2 @ 41.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on November 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 22?Won
Yes$1 @ 37.0¢
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Lost
Over$4 @ 70.0¢
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Won
Under$7 @ 74.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on November 6?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on November 7?Lost
No$1 @ 27.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 28?Won
Yes$1 @ 36.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.9¢
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?Lost
No$4 @ 6.9¢
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?Lost
No$8 @ 78.0¢
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$5 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 3?Won
Yes$5 @ 21.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on November 10?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.3¢
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on November 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 38.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on October 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 7°C on October 29?Lost
Yes$1 @ 49.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 28?Won
No$1 @ 76.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 28?Lost
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 10°C on November 9?Lost
Yes$1 @ 42.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on November 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on October 23?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 24?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on November 8?Lost
Yes$6 @ 5.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 12?	Science	Yes	$41	61.9¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 12?	Science	No	$35	65.1¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 13?	Science	No	$27	74.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on November 12?	Science	No	$10	68.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on November 13?	Science	Yes	$9	48.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on November 12?	Science	Yes	$8	58.0¢
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$7	50.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 12?	Politics	Yes	$7	30.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on November 12?	Science	No	$6	52.3¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 12?	Science	No	$5	67.0¢
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$5	94.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on November 12?	Science	No	$5	64.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on November 12?	Science	Yes	$4	14.4¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 12?	Science	No	$4	45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on November 12?	Science	Yes	$4	52.4¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 12?	Science	Yes	$4	22.0¢
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before November 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	66.0¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	12.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 12?	Science	Yes	$4	28.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on November 12?	Science	Yes	$4	50.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on November 13?	Science	No	$3	66.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 12?	Science	No	$3	56.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on November 13?	Science	No	$3	54.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 13?	Politics	No	$3	38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 12?	Science	Yes	$3	58.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on November 12?	Science	Yes	$3	25.7¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?	Politics	No	$3	75.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 13?	Science	Yes	$3	16.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 13?	Science	No	$3	38.2¢
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	Culture	No	$3	91.4¢

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 12?Science
Yes$41 @ 61.9¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 12?Science
No$35 @ 65.1¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 13?Science
No$27 @ 74.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on November 12?Science
No$10 @ 68.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on November 13?Science
Yes$9 @ 48.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on November 12?Science
Yes$8 @ 58.0¢
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?Culture
Yes$7 @ 50.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 12?Politics
Yes$7 @ 30.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on November 12?Science
No$6 @ 52.3¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 12?Science
No$5 @ 67.0¢
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$5 @ 94.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on November 12?Science
No$5 @ 64.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on November 12?Science
Yes$4 @ 14.4¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 12?Science
No$4 @ 45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on November 12?Science
Yes$4 @ 52.4¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 12?Science
Yes$4 @ 22.0¢
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before November 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 66.0¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 12.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 12?Science
Yes$4 @ 28.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on November 12?Science
Yes$4 @ 50.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on November 13?Science
No$3 @ 66.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 12?Science
No$3 @ 56.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on November 13?Science
No$3 @ 54.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 13?Politics
No$3 @ 38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 12?Science
Yes$3 @ 58.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on November 12?Science
Yes$3 @ 25.7¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 75.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 13?Science
Yes$3 @ 16.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 13?Science
No$3 @ 38.2¢
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?Culture
No$3 @ 91.4¢