0xbf40…9e76

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbf40db946351014aa04989505c64881413f09e76
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.9pp

ROI

+23%

Win rate

37% @ 30.8¢

Brier

0.121

Resolved

460

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (69/144)	+0%	144
Sports	33% (3/9)	-41%	9
Science	25% (1/4)	-7%	4
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+22%	1

Other144 bets
Hit rate
48% (69/144)
ROI
+0%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-41%
Science4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-7%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%

Track record

47% hit · 74/159

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	$10	42.0¢	Lost
Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova	Marta Kostyuk	$764	60.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	Yes	$30	13.0¢	Lost
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Leandro Riedi	Leandro Riedi	$20	73.0¢	Lost
Will Marseille qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?	No	$62	93.8¢	Lost
Bordeaux: Titouan Droguet vs Terence Atmane	Terence Atmane	$21	53.0¢	Lost
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 100 and 124 points?	Yes	$11	7.1¢	Lost
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30?	No	$10	49.0¢	Lost
Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	12.0¢	Lost
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	$20	29.0¢	Lost
Madrid Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	$16	39.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 8?	Yes	$40	78.5¢	Won
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante	Thiago Agustin Tirante	$10	55.0¢	Won
Morelos: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Takeru Yuzuki	Marc-Andrea Huesler	$39	58.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 25?	Yes	$11	27.0¢	Lost
Will Fabiano Caruana vs. Andrey Esipenko end in a draw?	Yes	$8	75.0¢	Won
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Julia Grabher vs Alexandra Eala	Alexandra Eala	$19	63.0¢	Won
Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14m & 14.2m square kilometers?	Yes	$16	12.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 21?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Alexandre Muller	Alexandre Muller	$10	51.0¢	Won
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 23?	Yes	$5	7.0¢	Lost
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-04-04?	Yes	$20	50.0¢	Lost
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	$5	27.0¢	Won
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 3, 2026?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic	Zizou Bergs	$30	49.0¢	Lost
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Machac vs Jannik Sinner	Tomas Machac	$5	13.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 26?	Yes	$9	31.0¢	Lost
Madrid Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Jaqueline Cristian	Jaqueline Cristian	$11	42.9¢	Won
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?	Yes	$5	6.1¢	Lost
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?	Yes	$25	27.3¢	Won
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$79	3.4¢	Lost
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5)	Gauff	$15	48.0¢	Lost
Will Zhu Jiner win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?	Yes	$20	18.9¢	Lost
Will Sophia Chikirou advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?	Yes	$42	85.0¢	Won
Grand Prix Hassan II: Alexandre Muller vs Rafael Jodar	Rafael Jodar	$12	61.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or higher on March 20?	Yes	$47	58.5¢	Won
Will London have between 20-30mm of precipitation in March?	Yes	$79	60.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 3?	No	$22	74.0¢	Won
Rome: Cezar Cretu vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert	Pierre-Hugues Herbert	$10	50.0¢	Lost
BMW Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Marc-Andrea Huesler	Marc-Andrea Huesler	$38	63.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25?	Yes	$103	31.3¢	Won
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jesper de Jong	Jesper de Jong	$8	10.7¢	Lost
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jesper de Jong	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	$16	51.0¢	Won
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Alice Tubello	Donna Vekic	$30	75.0¢	Won
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Pedro Martinez	Pedro Martinez	$19	64.3¢	Won
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 23?	Yes	$3	52.0¢	Won
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31?	No	$20	51.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28?	Yes	$15	29.8¢	Lost

Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-11-07?Lost
Yes$10 @ 42.0¢
Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda NoskovaLost
Marta Kostyuk$764 @ 60.0¢
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?Lost
Yes$30 @ 13.0¢
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Leandro RiediLost
Leandro Riedi$20 @ 73.0¢
Will Marseille qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?Lost
No$62 @ 93.8¢
Bordeaux: Titouan Droguet vs Terence AtmaneLost
Terence Atmane$21 @ 53.0¢
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 100 and 124 points?Lost
Yes$11 @ 7.1¢
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30?Lost
No$10 @ 49.0¢
Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-22?Lost
Yes$20 @ 29.0¢
Madrid Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Luciano DarderiLost
Juan Manuel Cerundolo$16 @ 39.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 8?Won
Yes$40 @ 78.5¢
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin TiranteWon
Thiago Agustin Tirante$10 @ 55.0¢
Morelos: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Takeru YuzukiWon
Marc-Andrea Huesler$39 @ 58.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 25?Lost
Yes$11 @ 27.0¢
Will Fabiano Caruana vs. Andrey Esipenko end in a draw?Won
Yes$8 @ 75.0¢
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Julia Grabher vs Alexandra EalaWon
Alexandra Eala$19 @ 63.0¢
Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14m & 14.2m square kilometers?Lost
Yes$16 @ 12.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 21?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Alexandre MullerWon
Alexandre Muller$10 @ 51.0¢
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?Won
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 23?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.0¢
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-04-04?Lost
Yes$20 @ 50.0¢
Desire Doue: Anytime GoalscorerWon
Yes$5 @ 27.0¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin CilicLost
Zizou Bergs$30 @ 49.0¢
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Machac vs Jannik SinnerLost
Tomas Machac$5 @ 13.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 26?Lost
Yes$9 @ 31.0¢
Madrid Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Jaqueline CristianWon
Jaqueline Cristian$11 @ 42.9¢
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.1¢
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?Won
Yes$25 @ 27.3¢
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$79 @ 3.4¢
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5)Lost
Gauff$15 @ 48.0¢
Will Zhu Jiner win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?Lost
Yes$20 @ 18.9¢
Will Sophia Chikirou advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?Won
Yes$42 @ 85.0¢
Grand Prix Hassan II: Alexandre Muller vs Rafael JodarWon
Rafael Jodar$12 @ 61.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or higher on March 20?Won
Yes$47 @ 58.5¢
Will London have between 20-30mm of precipitation in March?Won
Yes$79 @ 60.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 3?Won
No$22 @ 74.0¢
Rome: Cezar Cretu vs Pierre-Hugues HerbertLost
Pierre-Hugues Herbert$10 @ 50.0¢
BMW Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Marc-Andrea HueslerWon
Marc-Andrea Huesler$38 @ 63.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25?Won
Yes$103 @ 31.3¢
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jesper de JongLost
Jesper de Jong$8 @ 10.7¢
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jesper de JongWon
Juan Manuel Cerundolo$16 @ 51.0¢
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Alice TubelloWon
Donna Vekic$30 @ 75.0¢
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Pedro MartinezWon
Pedro Martinez$19 @ 64.3¢
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 23?Won
Yes$3 @ 52.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31?Won
No$20 @ 51.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28?Lost
Yes$15 @ 29.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova	—	Marta Kostyuk	$764	60.0¢
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Sports	Yes	$76	3.4¢
Will Marseille qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?	Sports	No	$62	93.8¢
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$36	82.0¢
French presidential election delayed?	Politics	No	$30	92.0¢
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	Sports	Yes	$30	13.0¢
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$26	55.0¢
Bordeaux: Titouan Droguet vs Terence Atmane	—	Terence Atmane	$21	53.0¢
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Leandro Riedi	—	Leandro Riedi	$20	73.0¢
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26?	—	Yes	$20	34.0¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-22?	Sports	Yes	$20	29.0¢
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$15	3.0¢
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch	—	Sara Sorribes Tormo	$15	45.0¢
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 100 and 124 points?	—	Yes	$11	7.1¢
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	Sports	Yes	$10	3.4¢
Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-11-07?	—	Yes	$10	42.0¢
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30?	—	No	$10	49.0¢
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?	Science	Yes	$9	9.4¢
Will David Lisnard win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$3	4.0¢
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Sports	No	$2	15.0¢
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?	Science	Yes	$1	6.0¢
Will Monaco finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?	—	Yes	$1	6.7¢
Will Dominik Greif be the goalie with the most clean sheets during the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?	—	Yes	$0	15.0¢

Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova—
Marta Kostyuk$764 @ 60.0¢
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open?Sports
Yes$76 @ 3.4¢
Will Marseille qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?Sports
No$62 @ 93.8¢
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$36 @ 82.0¢
French presidential election delayed?Politics
No$30 @ 92.0¢
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?Sports
Yes$30 @ 13.0¢
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$26 @ 55.0¢
Bordeaux: Titouan Droguet vs Terence Atmane—
Terence Atmane$21 @ 53.0¢
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Leandro Riedi—
Leandro Riedi$20 @ 73.0¢
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26?—
Yes$20 @ 34.0¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-22?Sports
Yes$20 @ 29.0¢
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$15 @ 3.0¢
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch—
Sara Sorribes Tormo$15 @ 45.0¢
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 100 and 124 points?—
Yes$11 @ 7.1¢
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open?Sports
Yes$10 @ 3.4¢
Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-11-07?—
Yes$10 @ 42.0¢
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30?—
No$10 @ 49.0¢
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?Science
Yes$9 @ 9.4¢
Will David Lisnard win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Sports
No$2 @ 15.0¢
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?Science
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Monaco finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?—
Yes$1 @ 6.7¢
Will Dominik Greif be the goalie with the most clean sheets during the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?—
Yes$0 @ 15.0¢