← Smart money
0xbef5…1c5a
SharpEdge
+35.0pp
ROI
+80%
Win rate
96% @ 60.8¢
Brier
0.167
Resolved
96
Avg size
$278
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 50% (2/4) | +24% | 4 |
| Other | 50% (1/2) | +114% | 2 |
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +24%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +114%
Track record
50% hit · 3/6| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | $7.3k | 80.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $79 | 44.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Yes | $100 | 0.9¢ | Lost |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | $50 | 0.3¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | $16.5k | 46.5¢ | Won |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | $75 | 54.4¢ | Lost |
- No$7.3k @ 80.0¢
- Yes$79 @ 44.0¢
- Yes$100 @ 0.9¢
- Yes$50 @ 0.3¢
- Yes$16.5k @ 46.5¢
- No$75 @ 54.4¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $14.7k | 77.0¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $4.6k | 46.0¢ |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | — | No | $3.0k | 52.6¢ |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | Geopolitics | No | $1.1k | 59.3¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $469 | 24.0¢ |
- No$14.7k @ 77.0¢
- Yes$4.6k @ 46.0¢
- No$3.0k @ 52.6¢
- No$1.1k @ 59.3¢
- Yes$469 @ 24.0¢