0xbef5…1c5a

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other22 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (12/22)

  ROI

  +63%

• Politics10 bets

  Hit rate

  40% (4/10)

  ROI

  +20%

• Tech2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +86%

• Crypto2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Geopolitics1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +89%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +113%

• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$480 @ 24.0¢
• Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Won
  Yes$1 @ 89.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
  Yes$78 @ 15.6¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
  No$40 @ 39.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$153 @ 51.0¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
  No$14.6k @ 79.9¢
• Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?Lost
  No$49 @ 49.0¢
• Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?Won
  No$68 @ 34.0¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
  No$7.3k @ 80.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?Lost
  Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
• Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?Won
  Yes$400 @ 59.2¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$79 @ 44.0¢
• Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?Lost
  Yes$1.1k @ 0.8¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 0.9¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025?Lost
  No$448 @ 11.3¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
  No$5.1k @ 55.9¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
  Yes$50 @ 0.3¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
  No$5.2k @ 59.5¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Lost
  Yes$145 @ 19.7¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
  Yes$16.5k @ 46.5¢
• Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?Lost
  Yes$1000 @ 46.5¢
• Will Biden pardon Fauci?Lost
  No$2 @ 71.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
  No$75 @ 54.4¢
• Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 31.7¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?Won
  Yes$47 @ 58.0¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
  No$4.1k @ 57.7¢
• Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?Won
  Yes$250 @ 62.0¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$284 @ 60.0¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$2.0k @ 46.0¢
• Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
  Yes$940 @ 47.0¢
• Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 2.0¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Won
  No$2.3k @ 53.0¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.1k @ 79.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
• Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$758 @ 53.0¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$275 @ 55.0¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$19 @ 3.4¢
• Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Won
  Yes$4.1k @ 54.0¢

Current positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$14.7k @ 77.0¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$8.3k @ 82.7¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$3.2k @ 46.0¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$2.2k @ 72.0¢
• Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.5k @ 13.4¢
• Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$985 @ 59.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
  Yes$5 @ 50.0¢