0xbef5…1c5a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbef5ab169458cb47c5d233e067dff4447fad1c5a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+35.0pp

ROI

+80%

Win rate

96% @ 60.8¢

Brier

0.167

Resolved

Avg size

$278

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	44% (4/9)	+24%	9
Other	67% (2/3)	+111%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	+86%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+113%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
+24%
Other3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+111%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+86%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+113%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

50% hit · 8/16

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.0k	46.0¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$940	47.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	Yes	$12	2.0¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	No	$2.3k	53.0¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	79.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$758	53.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	$275	55.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$19	3.4¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	Yes	$4.1k	54.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$7.3k	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$79	44.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	$100	0.9¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$50	0.3¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$16.5k	46.5¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$75	54.4¢	Lost

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 46.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$940 @ 47.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Won
No$2.3k @ 53.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 79.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$758 @ 53.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$275 @ 55.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$19 @ 3.4¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Won
Yes$4.1k @ 54.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$7.3k @ 80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$79 @ 44.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 0.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 0.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$16.5k @ 46.5¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$75 @ 54.4¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$14.7k	77.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$8.3k	82.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	46.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.2k	72.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	13.4¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$985	59.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$469	24.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$284	60.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$5	50.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$14.7k @ 77.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$8.3k @ 82.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 46.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.2k @ 72.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 13.4¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
No$985 @ 59.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$469 @ 24.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$284 @ 60.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$5 @ 50.0¢