0xbec8…6695

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbec8107a020e810fff6f9a140cf560daa6aa6695
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.6pp

ROI

+83%

Win rate

24% @ 17.9¢

Brier

0.177

Resolved

319

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	18% (20/114)	+89%	114
Politics	24% (8/34)	+110%	34
Geopolitics	14% (2/14)	-22%	14
Sports	14% (1/7)	-85%	7

Other114 bets
Hit rate
18% (20/114)
ROI
+89%
Politics34 bets
Hit rate
24% (8/34)
ROI
+110%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
14% (2/14)
ROI
-22%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-85%

Track record

18% hit · 31/169

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Spain?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$14	7.0¢	Won
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	$5	57.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	$7	15.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	No	$7	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$10	30.0¢	Lost
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	$1	3.9¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$10	28.0¢	Won
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada?	Yes	$5	15.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$50	7.0¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	Yes	$2	6.1¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$21	5.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$10	12.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	Yes	$25	14.7¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$30	16.3¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$30	33.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	Yes	$10	20.5¢	Lost
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Norway?	Yes	$10	7.4¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$6	2.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$1	24.3¢	Lost
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$40	67.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$20	18.5¢	Lost
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$5	4.8¢	Lost
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Norway?	Yes	$7	11.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Spain?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	$5	11.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?	Yes	$10	3.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$10	25.0¢	Lost
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?	Yes	$5	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	3.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?	Yes	$10	20.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	No	$31	4.4¢	Lost
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Spain?	Yes	$7	15.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Norway?	Yes	$1	2.8¢	Lost
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Norway?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$44	28.5¢	Won
Iran leadership change by March 13?	Yes	$5	4.9¢	Lost
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?	Yes	$10	7.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?	Yes	$7	10.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation?	Yes	$10	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$11	35.0¢	Lost
Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$22	4.5¢	Lost

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ETLost
Up$1 @ 3.0¢
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Spain?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$14 @ 7.0¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Lost
Yes$5 @ 57.0¢
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Morocco?Lost
Yes$7 @ 15.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
No$7 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 30.0¢
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.9¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 28.0¢
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada?Lost
Yes$5 @ 15.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$50 @ 7.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.1¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$21 @ 5.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 12.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Won
Yes$25 @ 14.7¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$30 @ 16.3¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$30 @ 33.0¢
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Lost
Yes$10 @ 20.5¢
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Norway?Won
Yes$10 @ 7.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$1 @ 24.3¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$40 @ 67.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 18.5¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.8¢
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Norway?Lost
Yes$7 @ 11.0¢
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Spain?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Egypt?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.0¢
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$10 @ 25.0¢
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Lost
Yes$5 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 3.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9?Lost
Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Lost
No$31 @ 4.4¢
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Spain?Lost
Yes$7 @ 15.0¢
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Norway?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.8¢
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 DR Congo?Won
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Norway?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$44 @ 28.5¢
Iran leadership change by March 13?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.9¢
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?Lost
Yes$10 @ 7.0¢
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?Lost
Yes$7 @ 10.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 35.0¢
Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 4.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$200	40.0¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	Politics	Yes	$148	14.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Geopolitics	No	$124	31.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Geopolitics	No	$75	23.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$50	25.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$40	18.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	—	No	$31	4.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	No	$30	5.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Geopolitics	No	$20	5.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?	—	No	$11	3.5¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	—	Up	$1	3.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	Politics	No	$0	2.4¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$200 @ 40.0¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?Politics
Yes$148 @ 14.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Geopolitics
No$124 @ 31.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
No$75 @ 23.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$50 @ 25.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$40 @ 18.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?—
No$31 @ 4.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
No$30 @ 5.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Geopolitics
No$20 @ 5.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?—
No$11 @ 3.5¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET—
Up$1 @ 3.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?Politics
No$0 @ 2.4¢