0xbeb1…2630

Specialization by sphere

• Other4212 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (2319/4212)

  ROI

  +19%

• Politics32 bets

  Hit rate

  44% (14/32)

  ROI

  +29%

• Culture15 bets

  Hit rate

  40% (6/15)

  ROI

  -10%

• Tech9 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (3/9)

  ROI

  +34%

• Sports6 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (4/6)

  ROI

  +86%

• Crypto6 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/6)

  ROI

  -100%

• Economy5 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/5)

  ROI

  -100%

• Science2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Geopolitics2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +214%

• Business2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Adam Scott win the 2025 Memorial Tournament?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on October 5?Won
  No$4 @ 50.0¢
• Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?Won
  No$7 @ 50.0¢
• Will Will "Elio" Rotten Tomatoes score be 80 or greater?Lost
  No$5 @ 50.0¢
• Will Amaya win Season 7 of Love Island USA?Lost
  No$5 @ 50.0¢
• Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Won
  No$10 @ 60.0¢
• Will Pieter Mullier be the next Creative Director of Balenciaga?Won
  No$1 @ 50.0¢
• Will the Tampa Bay Rays make the 2025 MLB playoffs?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 25.0¢
• Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?Won
  No$5 @ 50.0¢
• Will Rutte say "nuclear" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on June 3?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will the Conservative Party win between 38% and 41% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on July 11?Won
  No$7 @ 50.0¢
• Will Shedeur Sanders be drafted in the third round?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will Dylan Sampson record the most rushing yards by a rookie running back?Won
  No$2 @ 50.0¢
• Yoon arrested before September?Lost
  No$7 @ 25.0¢
• "The Roses" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 65 and 69?Lost
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• "Freakier Friday" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 70–89%?Lost
  No$7 @ 50.0¢
• Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?Won
  No$7 @ 50.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73-74°F on May 10?Lost
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire before July? Won
  No$6 @ 33.0¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: AI EditionWon
  Yes$3 @ 33.0¢
• Will Isaac Del Toro win the Giro d’Italia 2025?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will Alexander Albon finish third at the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?Won
  No$7 @ 50.0¢
• Will "Maybe Happy Ending" win the Tony for Best Musical 2025?Lost
  No$2 @ 19.0¢
• Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?Lost
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 20.0¢
• Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29?Lost
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?Lost
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on October 3?Lost
  No$4 @ 50.0¢
• Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 9–16?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will annual inflation increase by between 33% and 35.9% in September?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by more than 50%?Won
  No$1 @ 50.0¢
• North Korea missile test by September 15?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 20.0¢
• Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• "The Outer Worlds 2" Metascore 90+Won
  No$7 @ 50.0¢
• Will Team Falcons win the BLAST Slam III Tournament?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will the Detroit Tigers win the AL Central Division?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will Powell say "Recession" during Framework Review speech on May 15?Lost
  No$2 @ 17.0¢
• Will the Jazz draft Cooper Flagg in the 2025 NBA Draft?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will the Labor Party win by 40 or more seats?Lost
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64–65°F on May 14?Lost
  No$2 @ 50.0¢
• Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Lost
  No$4 @ 50.0¢
• Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?Won
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Won
  Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will "The Strangers: Chapter 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5.75m?Lost
  No$3 @ 50.0¢
• No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
  No$7 @ 50.0¢

Current positions

• Will Sexyy Red be featured on GTA VI: The Album?Culture
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will Kodak Black be featured on GTA VI: The Album?Culture
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?Culture
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will Taylor Swift win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Culture
  Yes$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 5?Science
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will Don Toliver be featured on GTA VI: The Album?Culture
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will "Unabomber" be the top global Netflix movie this week?Culture
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?Culture
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?Culture
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?Culture
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?Tech
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will "Best of the Best" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Culture
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will Team Yandex win PGL Wallachia Season 9?Sports
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will "The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Culture
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will "Unabomber" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Culture
  No$21 @ 26.0¢
• Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?Tech
  No$19 @ 26.0¢
• Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?Culture
  No$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will Jynxzi reach Gold rank in League of Legends by October 2, 2026?Sports
  Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.52% in September?Economy
  Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will Bernard Sévigny win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election?Politics
  No$10 @ 26.0¢
• Renan Santos participates in debate before first round?Politics
  Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in September?Economy
  Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?Politics
  No$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on September 30?Tech
  No$10 @ 26.0¢
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
  No$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will Peter Freshney win the next Latrobe mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will Marilyn Crawford win the 2026 Ajax mayoral election?Politics
  No$10 @ 26.0¢
• Will Iran target Kuwait by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$10 @ 26.0¢