0xbdd1…0c4f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbdd11cc911ec8ed95887e56dc253d70cb36b0c4f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.5pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

54% @ 44.8¢

Brier

0.126

Resolved

223

Avg size

$27

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	30% (7/23)	+4%	23
Other	47% (8/17)	-70%	17
Politics	83% (5/6)	+38%	6
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Sports23 bets
Hit rate
30% (7/23)
ROI
+4%
Other17 bets
Hit rate
47% (8/17)
ROI
-70%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+38%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

43% hit · 20/47

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$88	88.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$469	26.3¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$38	75.0¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$241	40.0¢	Lost
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$214	21.4¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$43	21.0¢	Lost
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Yes	$255	50.9¢	Won
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	$128	42.3¢	Won
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$192	38.4¢	Won
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$17	17.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$24	24.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	$110	52.2¢	Won
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$8	42.1¢	Won
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$119	29.8¢	Lost
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$91	61.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	$231	11.5¢	Lost
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$120	60.0¢	Won
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$6	1.0¢	Lost
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$96	3.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	54.7¢	Won
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$38	2.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	2.3¢	Lost
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Won
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$217	69.9¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$268	65.4¢	Won
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$2	1.1¢	Lost
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)	Lakers	$24	79.0¢	Lost
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$449	61.9¢	Won
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)	Lakers	$17	5.5¢	Lost
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	$171	74.6¢	Won
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$30	0.5¢	Lost
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$12	0.5¢	Lost
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$19	1.6¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	$192	64.1¢	Won
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$9	0.3¢	Lost
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Hawks vs. Knicks	Knicks	$109	19.5¢	Lost
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?	Yes	$9	87.3¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$201	67.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$1.9k	11.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$10	4.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$165	31.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	5.0¢	Lost
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini	Illinois Fighting Illini	$1.9k	15.8¢	Lost
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$273	72.5¢	Won

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$88 @ 88.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$469 @ 26.3¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$38 @ 75.0¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$241 @ 40.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$214 @ 21.4¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$43 @ 21.0¢
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?Won
Yes$255 @ 50.9¢
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?Won
Yes$128 @ 42.3¢
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
Yes$192 @ 38.4¢
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$24 @ 24.0¢
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?Won
Yes$110 @ 52.2¢
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
No$8 @ 42.1¢
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$119 @ 29.8¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$91 @ 61.0¢
Spurs vs. ThunderLost
Thunder$231 @ 11.5¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
No$120 @ 60.0¢
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.0¢
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$96 @ 3.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 54.7¢
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$38 @ 2.0¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.3¢
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?Won
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers Lost
Lakers$3 @ 3.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$217 @ 69.9¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$268 @ 65.4¢
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Lost
Lakers$24 @ 79.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$449 @ 61.9¢
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Lost
Lakers$17 @ 5.5¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Won
Lakers$171 @ 74.6¢
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$30 @ 0.5¢
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.5¢
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$19 @ 1.6¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Won
Yes$192 @ 64.1¢
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.3¢
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Hawks vs. KnicksLost
Knicks$109 @ 19.5¢
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?Won
Yes$9 @ 87.3¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$201 @ 67.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$1.9k @ 11.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$10 @ 4.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$165 @ 31.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 5.0¢
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniLost
Illinois Fighting Illini$1.9k @ 15.8¢
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Won
Yes$273 @ 72.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Politics	Yes	$3.7k	76.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	—	Yes	$1.2k	87.8¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Tech	Yes	$838	52.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	—	Yes	$550	83.3¢
Anduril IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$404	17.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	—	Yes	$288	77.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	—	Yes	$189	94.4¢
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$116	9.8¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	No	$115	29.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$90	45.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	—	No	$82	82.0¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	—	Yes	$81	81.0¢
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$77	3.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	—	Yes	$59	59.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$51	85.5¢
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Politics	Yes	$33	97.4¢
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$31	41.4¢
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$28	94.7¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$27	3.7¢
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$25	1.5¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$23	0.9¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$22	14.7¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$20	19.2¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$15	25.5¢
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	Politics	Yes	$15	8.2¢
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	55.5¢
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$8	0.9¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$8	37.7¢
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$5	40.0¢
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$4	10.6¢

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Politics
Yes$3.7k @ 76.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?—
Yes$1.2k @ 87.8¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?Tech
Yes$838 @ 52.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?—
Yes$550 @ 83.3¢
Anduril IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$404 @ 17.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?—
Yes$288 @ 77.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?—
Yes$189 @ 94.4¢
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$116 @ 9.8¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
No$115 @ 29.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$90 @ 45.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?—
No$82 @ 82.0¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?—
Yes$81 @ 81.0¢
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Sports
Yes$77 @ 3.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?—
Yes$59 @ 59.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$51 @ 85.5¢
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Politics
Yes$33 @ 97.4¢
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$31 @ 41.4¢
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$28 @ 94.7¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$27 @ 3.7¢
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Sports
Yes$25 @ 1.5¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$23 @ 0.9¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$22 @ 14.7¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?Politics
Yes$20 @ 19.2¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
Yes$15 @ 25.5¢
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?Politics
Yes$15 @ 8.2¢
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 55.5¢
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$8 @ 0.9¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$8 @ 37.7¢
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$5 @ 40.0¢
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Sports
Yes$4 @ 10.6¢