0xbdad…3ef7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbdad67aca6283e77c982e2eff2e1c8a5bbd83ef7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.3pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

50% @ 40.2¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

307

Avg size

$11

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (27/61)	-14%	61
Tech	50% (18/36)	+5%	36
Economy	43% (13/30)	+2%	30
Sports	63% (15/24)	+49%	24
Politics	54% (13/24)	+36%	24
Culture	50% (10/20)	+7%	20
Business	53% (10/19)	+158%	19
Geopolitics	54% (7/13)	+17%	13
Science	67% (4/6)	+37%	6
Crypto	75% (3/4)	+15%	4

Other61 bets
Hit rate
44% (27/61)
ROI
-14%
Tech36 bets
Hit rate
50% (18/36)
ROI
+5%
Economy30 bets
Hit rate
43% (13/30)
ROI
+2%
Sports24 bets
Hit rate
63% (15/24)
ROI
+49%
Politics24 bets
Hit rate
54% (13/24)
ROI
+36%
Culture20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
+7%
Business19 bets
Hit rate
53% (10/19)
ROI
+158%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
54% (7/13)
ROI
+17%
Science6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+37%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+15%

Track record

51% hit · 120/237

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?	Yes	$5	4.8¢	Lost
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 113m by October 31?	No	$95	90.3¢	Won
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	$0	11.0¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$39	38.4¢	Lost
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	$1	57.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?	Yes	$1	38.3¢	Lost
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	$62	61.0¢	Won
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.11% in October?	Yes	$2	23.0¢	Lost
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.85% in October?	Yes	$2	3.9¢	Lost
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?	No	$37	92.0¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	No	$1	77.4¢	Won
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?	Yes	$2	6.0¢	Lost
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% in October?	No	$37	93.0¢	Won
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% in October?	Yes	$0	33.4¢	Lost
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.14% in October?	No	$6	68.0¢	Won
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?	No	$0	35.0¢	Won
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% in October?	No	$2	71.0¢	Lost
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of October 26 2026?	No	$77	92.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	$4	5.0¢	Lost
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $196 in October?	No	$17	87.0¢	Won
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $192 in October?	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by October 31?	Yes	$0	25.0¢	Won
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in October?	Yes	$1	23.0¢	Won
Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q1 total revenues be above $3.95B?	Yes	$0	47.1¢	Won
Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q1 total revenues be above $4.05B?	No	$0	37.0¢	Lost
Will Jio Platforms IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	33.2¢	Won
Will Oklahoma State have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	$1	49.6¢	Won
Will Syracuse have more than 2.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	$0	46.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?	No	$6	35.0¢	Lost
Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 78 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	$0	10.0¢	Lost
Will San Diego State have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	$14	30.0¢	Lost
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $184 in September?	Yes	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $193 Week of September 28 2026?	No	$7	71.0¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	$2	1.8¢	Lost
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$70	56.9¢	Lost
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?	Yes	$52	78.5¢	Won
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.3¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	44.0¢	Won
Will "Heart of the Beast" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$32	79.0¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams?	Yes	$3	2.9¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$6	32.1¢	Lost
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $12.75B by September 30?	Yes	$49	33.9¢	Lost
Will Tampa Bay Rays advance to the ALCS in the 2026 MLB Playoffs?	Yes	$10	51.0¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Won
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?	No	$3	12.0¢	Lost
Next DeepSeek Pro released by September 30, 2026?	No	$13	65.0¢	Won
Will the highest wind gust at NYC LaGuardia be 35 kt or more?	Yes	$30	48.7¢	Won
Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 17 million views this week?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	No	$11	51.0¢	Lost

Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.8¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 113m by October 31?Won
No$95 @ 90.3¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?Won
No$0 @ 11.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$39 @ 38.4¢
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by October 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 57.0¢
Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 38.3¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?Won
No$62 @ 61.0¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.11% in October?Lost
Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.85% in October?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.9¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?Won
No$37 @ 92.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?Won
No$1 @ 77.4¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% in October?Won
No$37 @ 93.0¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% in October?Lost
Yes$0 @ 33.4¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.14% in October?Won
No$6 @ 68.0¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?Won
No$0 @ 35.0¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% in October?Lost
No$2 @ 71.0¢
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of October 26 2026?Won
No$77 @ 92.0¢
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of October 26 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.0¢
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $196 in October?Won
No$17 @ 87.0¢
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $192 in October?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by October 31?Won
Yes$0 @ 25.0¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in October?Won
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q1 total revenues be above $3.95B?Won
Yes$0 @ 47.1¢
Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q1 total revenues be above $4.05B?Lost
No$0 @ 37.0¢
Will Jio Platforms IPO by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 33.2¢
Will Oklahoma State have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?Won
Yes$1 @ 49.6¢
Will Syracuse have more than 2.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?Won
Yes$0 @ 46.0¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 35.0¢
Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 78 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
Yes$0 @ 10.0¢
Will San Diego State have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?Lost
Yes$14 @ 30.0¢
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $184 in September?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $193 Week of September 28 2026?Won
No$7 @ 71.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of October 12 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.8¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$70 @ 56.9¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?Won
Yes$52 @ 78.5¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.3¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 44.0¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
No$32 @ 79.0¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.9¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$6 @ 32.1¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $12.75B by September 30?Lost
Yes$49 @ 33.9¢
Will Tampa Bay Rays advance to the ALCS in the 2026 MLB Playoffs?Won
Yes$10 @ 51.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 12.0¢
Next DeepSeek Pro released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 65.0¢
Will the highest wind gust at NYC LaGuardia be 35 kt or more?Won
Yes$30 @ 48.7¢
Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 17 million views this week?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?Lost
No$11 @ 51.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 25M in October?	Culture	No	$100	95.0¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 113m by October 31?	Culture	No	$95	90.3¢
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$69	55.2¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?	Politics	No	$63	56.0¢
Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by November 30?	Science	Yes	$62	88.6¢
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by March 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$48	44.1¢
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$40	35.0¢
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$31	25.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by October 31?	Other	No	$25	96.9¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $29.5B by October 31?	Other	No	$15	76.0¢
Will Ladd McConkey have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	No	$15	75.0¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii by November 30, 2026?	Science	No	$13	75.0¢
Will Luther Burden III have 424.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	Yes	$11	57.0¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $122.5B by October 31?	Other	Yes	$11	86.0¢
Will Drake Maye have 30+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	No	$11	54.0¢
Will Garrett Wilson have 999.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	Yes	$7	45.0¢
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	19.0¢
Will Garrett Wilson have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	No	$6	41.0¢
Will Drake Maye have 29.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	Yes	$6	29.0¢
Will Makai Lemon have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	No	$5	52.3¢
Will Luther Burden III have 624.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	No	$5	26.0¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?	Culture	Yes	$5	4.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	3.7¢
Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 24M in October?	Culture	Yes	$3	2.9¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $27B by October 31?	Other	Yes	$3	15.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$3	62.8¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?	Science	Yes	$3	15.4¢
Will Ladd McConkey have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	Yes	$2	11.0¢
Will Kansas State have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Sports	No	$2	31.0¢
Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	Yes	$2	17.0¢

Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 25M in October?Culture
No$100 @ 95.0¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 113m by October 31?Culture
No$95 @ 90.3¢
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$69 @ 55.2¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?Politics
No$63 @ 56.0¢
Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by November 30?Science
Yes$62 @ 88.6¢
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by March 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$48 @ 44.1¢
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 35.0¢
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$31 @ 25.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by October 31?Other
No$25 @ 96.9¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $29.5B by October 31?Other
No$15 @ 76.0¢
Will Ladd McConkey have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
No$15 @ 75.0¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii by November 30, 2026?Science
No$13 @ 75.0¢
Will Luther Burden III have 424.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
Yes$11 @ 57.0¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $122.5B by October 31?Other
Yes$11 @ 86.0¢
Will Drake Maye have 30+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
No$11 @ 54.0¢
Will Garrett Wilson have 999.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
Yes$7 @ 45.0¢
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 19.0¢
Will Garrett Wilson have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
No$6 @ 41.0¢
Will Drake Maye have 29.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
Yes$6 @ 29.0¢
Will Makai Lemon have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
No$5 @ 52.3¢
Will Luther Burden III have 624.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
No$5 @ 26.0¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?Culture
Yes$5 @ 4.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 3.7¢
Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 24M in October?Culture
Yes$3 @ 2.9¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $27B by October 31?Other
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$3 @ 62.8¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?Science
Yes$3 @ 15.4¢
Will Ladd McConkey have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
Will Kansas State have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?Sports
No$2 @ 31.0¢
Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
Yes$2 @ 17.0¢