0xbd84…1292

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbd848c80fbf82d6f31a883660549342935ae1292
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.2pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

50% @ 42.7¢

Brier

0.177

Resolved

425

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (74/144)	+35%	144
Politics	48% (24/50)	+7%	50
Sports	33% (15/45)	+1%	45
Geopolitics	17% (2/12)	-86%	12
Crypto	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Economy	100% (3/3)	+115%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	+6%	2

Other144 bets
Hit rate
51% (74/144)
ROI
+35%
Politics50 bets
Hit rate
48% (24/50)
ROI
+7%
Sports45 bets
Hit rate
33% (15/45)
ROI
+1%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
17% (2/12)
ROI
-86%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+115%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+6%

Track record

46% hit · 119/261

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	Yes	$25	73.0¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$5	60.0¢	Won
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	32.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$5	83.0¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	$15	21.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$10	22.0¢	Lost
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	73.0¢	Won
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$45	15.5¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	19.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	55.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25?	No	$5	70.0¢	Lost
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	40.7¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$5	58.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 4?	No	$10	38.0¢	Lost
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$3	28.0¢	Lost
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	Yes	$25	36.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	Yes	$25	47.6¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	Yes	$20	48.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$25	29.2¢	Won
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	50.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$5	41.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 22?	No	$5	23.1¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 22?	Yes	$3	86.0¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?	No	$5	72.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 6?	No	$15	39.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6?	No	$15	24.6¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?	No	$5	49.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	37.6¢	Won
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	40.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 23?	No	$5	35.0¢	Lost
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$3	5.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 25?	No	$10	78.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	$5	22.0¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$15	20.6¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	No	$20	82.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$7	86.0¢	Won
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$2	34.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	Yes	$4	24.0¢	Lost
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$3	23.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	$10	85.0¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$15	18.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 5?	No	$15	44.1¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.4% before 2027?	Yes	$40	67.1¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	8.6¢	Lost
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$3	59.0¢	Lost
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by June 30?	Yes	$5	29.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?	Yes	$10	50.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$22	34.7¢	Lost

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Won
Yes$25 @ 73.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$5 @ 60.0¢
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$3 @ 32.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$5 @ 83.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Won
Yes$15 @ 21.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$10 @ 22.0¢
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$5 @ 73.0¢
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$45 @ 15.5¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 19.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 55.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25?Lost
No$5 @ 70.0¢
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$3 @ 40.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$5 @ 58.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 4?Lost
No$10 @ 38.0¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?Won
Yes$25 @ 36.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Won
Yes$25 @ 47.6¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Won
Yes$20 @ 48.6¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 29.2¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$5 @ 41.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 22?Lost
No$5 @ 23.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 22?Won
Yes$3 @ 86.0¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 72.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 6?Lost
No$15 @ 39.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6?Lost
No$15 @ 24.6¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?Lost
No$5 @ 49.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 37.6¢
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 40.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 23?Lost
No$5 @ 35.0¢
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 25?Won
No$10 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?Won
Yes$5 @ 22.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$15 @ 20.6¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Won
No$20 @ 82.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$7 @ 86.0¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?Lost
Yes$2 @ 34.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 24.0¢
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$3 @ 23.0¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 85.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 18.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 5?Lost
No$15 @ 44.1¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.4% before 2027?Won
Yes$40 @ 67.1¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.6¢
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
No$3 @ 59.0¢
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 29.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?Lost
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$22 @ 34.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Other	Yes	$40	71.6¢
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$35	25.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$25	86.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$20	73.4¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	Other	Yes	$20	58.7¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$20	95.0¢
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026?	Other	Yes	$20	77.7¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$20	31.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	26.1¢
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026?	Other	Yes	$15	75.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$15	72.0¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	12.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$10	16.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$10	65.3¢
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026?	Other	Yes	$10	44.3¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Culture	No	$10	96.5¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$10	91.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$10	89.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$10	89.0¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$10	18.7¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$10	24.4¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$10	32.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$10	47.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$10	31.0¢
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	13.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$7	70.0¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	32.5¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$7	30.0¢
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.6% and 1.8%?	Economy	No	$5	95.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5	79.0¢

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?Other
Yes$40 @ 71.6¢
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?Politics
Yes$35 @ 25.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$25 @ 86.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$20 @ 73.4¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?Other
Yes$20 @ 58.7¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 95.0¢
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026?Other
Yes$20 @ 77.7¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Politics
Yes$20 @ 31.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 26.1¢
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026?Other
Yes$15 @ 75.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$15 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 12.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
Yes$10 @ 16.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$10 @ 65.3¢
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026?Other
Yes$10 @ 44.3¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture
No$10 @ 96.5¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
No$10 @ 91.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$10 @ 89.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$10 @ 89.0¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics
Yes$10 @ 18.7¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?Politics
Yes$10 @ 24.4¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?Politics
Yes$10 @ 32.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$10 @ 47.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$10 @ 31.0¢
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 13.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$7 @ 70.0¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 32.5¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
Yes$7 @ 30.0¢
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.6% and 1.8%?Economy
No$5 @ 95.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 79.0¢