0xbd6d…ed0b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbd6d646b2c713ce7459afcb1502f34c30f93ed0b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.2pp

ROI

+65%

Win rate

32% @ 20.9¢

Brier

0.198

Resolved

579

Avg size

$36

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	21% (20/95)	+4%	95
Tech	20% (3/15)	+80%	15
Politics	46% (6/13)	+26%	13
Crypto	75% (9/12)	+305%	12
Geopolitics	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Sports	50% (2/4)	+93%	4
Science	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other95 bets
Hit rate
21% (20/95)
ROI
+4%
Tech15 bets
Hit rate
20% (3/15)
ROI
+80%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
46% (6/13)
ROI
+26%
Crypto12 bets
Hit rate
75% (9/12)
ROI
+305%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+93%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

27% hit · 40/146

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30?	No	$186	80.6¢	Won
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30?	No	$21	85.0¢	Won
Will Charles Emmanuel as Akaza (Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Brazilian Portuguese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	Yes	$3	10.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	Yes	$101	44.0¢	Won
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 19?	Yes	$240	16.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 19?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Lost
Will XRP reach $1.60 April 13-19?	Yes	$162	3.1¢	Lost
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	$6	80.9¢	Lost
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	$197	32.2¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$166	4.1¢	Lost
Will Chiaki Kobayashi as Yoshiki Tsujinaka (The Summer Hikaru Died) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Japanese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will June 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$31	1.2¢	Lost
Will Adele be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	Yes	$15	37.0¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $100 in April?	Yes	$67	19.5¢	Lost
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$227	6.4¢	Won
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO?	Yes	$127	13.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$185	21.0¢	Won
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	Yes	$8	11.9¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$1.1k	75.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$378	62.1¢	Won
Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?	Yes	$79	8.0¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $90 April 13-19?	Yes	$382	47.8¢	Won
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	$50	24.4¢	Lost
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	Yes	$90	36.5¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?	Yes	$359	29.6¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 39.0% in April?	Yes	$0	30.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$200	55.0¢	Lost
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$187	25.0¢	Won
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	$132	66.0¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $110 April 13-19?	Yes	$11	1.8¢	Lost
Will BNB reach $900 in April?	Yes	$2	0.5¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$65	65.0¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	$644	65.6¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$123	41.0¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $110 in April?	Yes	$70	4.8¢	Lost
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$35	3.8¢	Lost
Will Taylor Swift be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	Yes	$14	36.0¢	Lost
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	Yes	$31	27.4¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	Yes	$6	5.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$89	68.5¢	Won
Will Rihanna be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	No	$1	50.0¢	Lost
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$529	8.8¢	Won
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?	Yes	$179	14.6¢	Won
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$731	60.6¢	Won
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in April?	Yes	$2	1.7¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $100 April 20-26?	Yes	$60	4.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$174	23.5¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	Yes	$2	1.5¢	Lost

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30?Won
No$186 @ 80.6¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30?Won
No$21 @ 85.0¢
Will Charles Emmanuel as Akaza (Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Brazilian Portuguese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Won
Yes$3 @ 10.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?Won
Yes$101 @ 44.0¢
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 19?Lost
Yes$240 @ 16.0¢
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 19?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Will XRP reach $1.60 April 13-19?Lost
Yes$162 @ 3.1¢
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 80.9¢
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$197 @ 32.2¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$166 @ 4.1¢
Will Chiaki Kobayashi as Yoshiki Tsujinaka (The Summer Hikaru Died) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Japanese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will June 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$31 @ 1.2¢
Will Adele be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?Lost
Yes$15 @ 37.0¢
Will Solana reach $100 in April?Lost
Yes$67 @ 19.5¢
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$227 @ 6.4¢
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO?Lost
Yes$127 @ 13.5¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$185 @ 21.0¢
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 11.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 75.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$378 @ 62.1¢
Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?Lost
Yes$79 @ 8.0¢
Will Solana reach $90 April 13-19?Won
Yes$382 @ 47.8¢
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 24.4¢
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?Lost
Yes$90 @ 36.5¢
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?Lost
Yes$359 @ 29.6¢
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 39.0% in April?Won
Yes$0 @ 30.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$200 @ 55.0¢
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$187 @ 25.0¢
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?Lost
Yes$132 @ 66.0¢
Will Solana reach $110 April 13-19?Lost
Yes$11 @ 1.8¢
Will BNB reach $900 in April?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$65 @ 65.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?Lost
Yes$644 @ 65.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$123 @ 41.0¢
Will Solana reach $110 in April?Lost
Yes$70 @ 4.8¢
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 3.8¢
Will Taylor Swift be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?Lost
Yes$14 @ 36.0¢
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?Won
Yes$31 @ 27.4¢
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 5.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$89 @ 68.5¢
Will Rihanna be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?Lost
No$1 @ 50.0¢
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$529 @ 8.8¢
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?Won
Yes$179 @ 14.6¢
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$731 @ 60.6¢
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in April?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
Will Solana reach $100 April 20-26?Lost
Yes$60 @ 4.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$174 @ 23.5¢
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	54.6¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30?	Tech	No	$686	80.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$514	25.7¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$219	43.0¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$195	14.8¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30?	—	No	$185	80.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$184	25.2¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$169	16.9¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$157	7.7¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$134	13.2¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by June 30?	—	No	$131	30.7¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$126	4.2¢
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$117	40.8¢
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?	Sports	Yes	$114	64.8¢
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?	—	Yes	$113	30.0¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?	Tech	No	$110	83.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$106	10.6¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	—	Yes	$95	19.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30?	—	No	$94	75.0¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$83	1.7¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$81	25.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$79	7.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$77	41.0¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30?	Tech	No	$75	59.0¢
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	Tech	Yes	$73	20.0¢
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$65	1.3¢
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$64	22.2¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$51	8.5¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?	—	Yes	$50	10.0¢
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$48	4.8¢

Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2.4k @ 54.6¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30?Tech
No$686 @ 80.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$514 @ 25.7¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$219 @ 43.0¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
Yes$195 @ 14.8¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30?—
No$185 @ 80.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?Geopolitics
Yes$184 @ 25.2¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$169 @ 16.9¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$157 @ 7.7¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
Yes$134 @ 13.2¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by June 30?—
No$131 @ 30.7¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$126 @ 4.2¢
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$117 @ 40.8¢
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?Sports
Yes$114 @ 64.8¢
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?—
Yes$113 @ 30.0¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?Tech
No$110 @ 83.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$106 @ 10.6¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?—
Yes$95 @ 19.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30?—
No$94 @ 75.0¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$83 @ 1.7¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?Geopolitics
Yes$81 @ 25.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$79 @ 7.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$77 @ 41.0¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30?Tech
No$75 @ 59.0¢
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?Tech
Yes$73 @ 20.0¢
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$65 @ 1.3¢
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$64 @ 22.2¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
Yes$51 @ 8.5¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?—
Yes$50 @ 10.0¢
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$48 @ 4.8¢