0xbd3c…fc78

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbd3c0b3a90d5c17f884745e1d8d2e7cc3a09fc78
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.4pp

ROI

+35%

Win rate

64% @ 50.4¢

Brier

0.195

Resolved

301

Avg size

$19

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (120/199)	+34%	199
Sports	61% (62/101)	-1%	101
Politics	37% (14/38)	+93%	38
Geopolitics	20% (1/5)	-73%	5
Science	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other199 bets
Hit rate
60% (120/199)
ROI
+34%
Sports101 bets
Hit rate
61% (62/101)
ROI
-1%
Politics38 bets
Hit rate
37% (14/38)
ROI
+93%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-73%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

57% hit · 197/347

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$18	88.0¢	Won
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal?	No	$67	18.4¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	$5	76.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$5	29.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5	Over	$35	79.0¢	Won
Valorant: All Gamers vs TEC Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 2 Playoffs	TEC Esports	$8	23.0¢	Won
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?	No	$59	87.8¢	Won
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5	Over	$90	71.6¢	Won
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5	Under	$3	34.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffs	ALGO Esports	$5	68.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffs	Betclic Apogee Esports	$2	22.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$5	77.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Won
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?	No	$12	78.0¢	Won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5	Over	$18	23.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand?	No	$30	85.0¢	Won
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand?	No	$35	77.0¢	Won
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	77.0¢	Won
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	$5	50.0¢	Lost
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	No	$5	63.0¢	Won
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$30	42.6¢	Lost
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	No	$5	82.7¢	Won
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	$5	24.9¢	Lost
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner	Dplus KIA	$24	76.0¢	Lost
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner	Kiwoom DRX	$9	27.0¢	Won
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula	Jessica Pegula	$10	44.1¢	Lost
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula	Kimberly Birrell	$10	50.0¢	Won
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29?	No	$7	64.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner	9z	$21	51.1¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner	FaZe	$16	58.4¢	Won
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$0	51.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier Group C	Lilmix	$13	69.3¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier Group C	Misa Esports	$22	39.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	$20	70.8¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$11	0.2¢	Lost
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	$108	62.2¢	Won
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions	Samsung Lions	$3	65.0¢	Won
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Dplus KIA	$41	72.7¢	Won
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Kiwoom DRX	$7	19.0¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$38	74.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$7	17.7¢	Lost
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan?	No	$13	88.9¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$70	63.8¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Yes	$24	65.0¢	Won
Evo Morales arrested by May 31?	No	$10	76.0¢	Won
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5	Over	$10	55.0¢	Won

Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal?Won
No$67 @ 18.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 76.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 29.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5Won
Over$35 @ 79.0¢
Valorant: All Gamers vs TEC Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 2 PlayoffsWon
TEC Esports$8 @ 23.0¢
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?Won
No$59 @ 87.8¢
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5Won
Over$90 @ 71.6¢
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$3 @ 34.0¢
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 PlayoffsWon
ALGO Esports$5 @ 68.0¢
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 PlayoffsLost
Betclic Apogee Esports$2 @ 22.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 77.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?Won
No$12 @ 78.0¢
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5Lost
Over$18 @ 23.0¢
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand?Won
No$30 @ 85.0¢
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand?Won
No$35 @ 77.0¢
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$7 @ 77.0¢
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total CornersLost
Over$5 @ 50.0¢
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?Won
No$5 @ 63.0¢
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$30 @ 42.6¢
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?Won
No$5 @ 82.7¢
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?Lost
Yes$5 @ 24.9¢
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 WinnerLost
Dplus KIA$24 @ 76.0¢
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 WinnerWon
Kiwoom DRX$9 @ 27.0¢
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica PegulaLost
Jessica Pegula$10 @ 44.1¢
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica PegulaWon
Kimberly Birrell$10 @ 50.0¢
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29?Won
No$7 @ 64.0¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 1 WinnerLost
9z$21 @ 51.1¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 1 WinnerWon
FaZe$16 @ 58.4¢
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$0 @ 51.0¢
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier Group CLost
Lilmix$13 @ 69.3¢
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier Group CWon
Misa Esports$22 @ 39.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 70.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.2¢
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5Won
Over$108 @ 62.2¢
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung LionsWon
Samsung Lions$3 @ 65.0¢
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2Won
Dplus KIA$41 @ 72.7¢
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2Lost
Kiwoom DRX$7 @ 19.0¢
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$38 @ 74.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$7 @ 17.7¢
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan?Won
No$13 @ 88.9¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$70 @ 63.8¢
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?Won
Yes$24 @ 65.0¢
Evo Morales arrested by May 31?Won
No$10 @ 76.0¢
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5Won
Over$10 @ 55.0¢

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 1.5	Sports	Over	$32	83.0¢

GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 1.5Sports
Over$32 @ 83.0¢