← Smart money
0xbd23…259d
SharpEdge
+22.2pp
ROI
+52%
Win rate
71% @ 48.4¢
Brier
0.191
Resolved
34
Avg size
$41
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 54% (7/13) | +53% | 13 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +15% | 1 |
- Other13 bets
- Hit rate
- 54% (7/13)
- ROI
- +53%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +15%
Track record
57% hit · 8/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 14? | Yes | $4 | 7.7¢ | Lost |
| Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | Yes | $50 | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Yes | $35 | 58.7¢ | Lost |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | $235 | 47.0¢ | Won |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Yes | $60 | 86.0¢ | Won |
| Solana above $190 on January 17? | Yes | $129 | 45.0¢ | Won |
| Will Real Madrid win La Liga? | Yes | $10 | 41.0¢ | Lost |
| Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? | Yes | $5 | 66.0¢ | Won |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 14? | No | $4 | 7.0¢ | Lost |
| GOP wins popular vote by 2.0-2.25%? | Yes | $8 | 0.1¢ | Lost |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $35 | 46.1¢ | Lost |
| Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? | No | $17 | 87.0¢ | Won |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $691 | 66.6¢ | Won |
| Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30? | Yes | $100 | 77.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$4 @ 7.7¢
- Yes$50 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$35 @ 58.7¢
- No$235 @ 47.0¢
- Yes$60 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$129 @ 45.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 41.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 66.0¢
- No$4 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$35 @ 46.1¢
- No$17 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$691 @ 66.6¢
- Yes$100 @ 77.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? | Crypto | No | $298 | 99.3¢ |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | Geopolitics | No | $193 | 96.4¢ |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? | Politics | No | $119 | 99.2¢ |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Politics | No | $96 | 96.0¢ |
| Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? | Politics | No | $92 | 97.2¢ |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by October 31? | Politics | No | $87 | 88.0¢ |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | Politics | No | $75 | 93.5¢ |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $47 | 93.5¢ |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? | Politics | No | $39 | 96.7¢ |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by October 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $7 | 99.0¢ |
- No$298 @ 99.3¢
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?GeopoliticsNo$193 @ 96.4¢
- No$119 @ 99.2¢
- No$96 @ 96.0¢
- No$92 @ 97.2¢
- No$87 @ 88.0¢
- No$75 @ 93.5¢
- Yes$47 @ 93.5¢
- No$39 @ 96.7¢
- No$7 @ 99.0¢