0xbd1a…5375

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbd1a51a2bd06e3ddc017c10af5f2880ebfe15375
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+14.0pp

ROI

+670%

Win rate

22% @ 8.4¢

Brier

0.193

Resolved

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Tech	0% (0/14)	-100%	14
Other	20% (2/10)	-54%	10
Politics	25% (2/8)	+999%	8
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Tech14 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/14)
ROI
-100%
Other10 bets
Hit rate
20% (2/10)
ROI
-54%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
+999%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

11% hit · 4/36

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$13	1.7¢	Lost
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha	Team Envy	$7	13.0¢	Lost
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$7	27.0¢	Lost
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega	Fnatic	$5	30.0¢	Won
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega	KRÜ Esports	$16	38.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?	No	$3	9.3¢	Lost
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha	LOUD	$6	7.5¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$4	0.8¢	Lost
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$128	7.3¢	Won
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega	Sentinels	$1	45.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$6	10.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be 64%+ in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$10	2.7¢	Lost
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Valorant: 9z Team vs Melser Kindergarten (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: ACE Masters Group A	9z Team	$1	24.0¢	Won
Valorant: 9z Team vs Melser Kindergarten (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: ACE Masters Group A	Melser Kindergarten	$2	39.0¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$3	0.6¢	Lost
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	No	$5	1.2¢	Lost
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost

Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$13 @ 1.7¢
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group AlphaLost
Team Envy$7 @ 13.0¢
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 27.0¢
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group OmegaWon
Fnatic$5 @ 30.0¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group OmegaLost
KRÜ Esports$16 @ 38.0¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 9.3¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group AlphaLost
LOUD$6 @ 7.5¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.8¢
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
Yes$128 @ 7.3¢
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group OmegaLost
Sentinels$1 @ 45.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$6 @ 10.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will voter turnout be 64%+ in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.7¢
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Valorant: 9z Team vs Melser Kindergarten (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: ACE Masters Group AWon
9z Team$1 @ 24.0¢
Valorant: 9z Team vs Melser Kindergarten (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: ACE Masters Group ALost
Melser Kindergarten$2 @ 39.0¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?Lost
No$5 @ 1.2¢
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$7	19.8¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$5	2.4¢
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$5	6.5¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$3	1.8¢
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1	0.1¢
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1	0.5¢
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1	0.2¢
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1	0.3¢

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$7 @ 19.8¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$5 @ 2.4¢
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$5 @ 6.5¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$3 @ 1.8¢
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢