0xbcd6…f3c8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbcd671efdc5dd18016e7577c8f05e2db8452f3c8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+7.3pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

58% @ 50.8¢

Brier

0.206

Resolved

924

Avg size

$69

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (178/326)	-4%	326
Sports	56% (50/89)	+3%	89
Politics	64% (44/69)	+13%	69
Geopolitics	64% (14/22)	+16%	22
Tech	83% (5/6)	+51%	6
Economy	100% (1/1)	+22%	1

Other326 bets
Hit rate
55% (178/326)
ROI
-4%
Sports89 bets
Hit rate
56% (50/89)
ROI
+3%
Politics69 bets
Hit rate
64% (44/69)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics22 bets
Hit rate
64% (14/22)
ROI
+16%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+51%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%

Track record

57% hit · 292/513

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Kaisa Maria Karro be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland?	No	$18	84.0¢	Won
Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?	Yes	$8	79.0¢	Won
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm?	Yes	$69	90.0¢	Won
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$155	70.0¢	Won
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?	Yes	$5	17.0¢	Won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	No	$298	76.0¢	Won
Celtics vs. Pistons	Celtics	$5.2k	52.0¢	Lost
Celtics vs. Pistons	Pistons	$4.7k	47.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$32	61.0¢	Lost
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals	Tampa Bay Rays	$76	56.0¢	Won
Milan: Juan Martin vs David Jorda Sanchis	Juan Martin	$36	39.0¢	Won
Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian Baez	Sebastian Baez	$10	46.0¢	Lost
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Pittsburgh Pirates	$55	42.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$21	20.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)	Ramazan Temirov	$2	52.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$52	67.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	$19	25.0¢	Lost
Croatia Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Federico Agustin Gomez	Federico Agustin Gomez	$88	48.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Switzerland	$6	27.0¢	Lost
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs	G2 Esports	$6	16.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$64	61.0¢	Won
Milan: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Stefano Travaglia	Enrico Dalla Valle	$9	47.0¢	Won
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5	Over	$5	72.0¢	Lost
Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Joao Fonseca	Roman Safiullin	$4	24.0¢	Won
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels	Boston Red Sox	$64	49.0¢	Won
Will Aurélien Tchouaméni score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1	78.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$106	13.0¢	Lost
Braunschweig: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Max Schoenhaus	Max Schoenhaus	$7	34.6¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$18	86.0¢	Won
Washington Nationals vs. Athletics	Washington Nationals	$69	58.0¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$15	64.0¢	Won
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	14.0¢	Lost
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kiwoom Heroes	Kiwoom Heroes	$14	72.0¢	Won
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva	Ethan Quinn	$38	63.0¢	Won
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$5	34.0¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	15.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	Yes	$8	70.0¢	Won
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko	Caty McNally	$22	70.0¢	Lost
Cary: Tung-Lin Wu vs Bernard Tomic	Bernard Tomic	$75	49.9¢	Lost
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. KT Wiz	Lotte Giants	$46	43.0¢	Won
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$23	35.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$225	82.0¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	No	$6	14.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$171	80.0¢	Won
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$213	87.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$2	12.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$156	88.0¢	Lost
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.2B?	Yes	$118	82.0¢	Won
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	$645	53.0¢	Lost

Will Kaisa Maria Karro be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland?Won
No$18 @ 84.0¢
Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?Won
Yes$8 @ 79.0¢
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm?Won
Yes$69 @ 90.0¢
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$155 @ 70.0¢
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?Won
Yes$5 @ 17.0¢
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsWon
No$298 @ 76.0¢
Celtics vs. PistonsLost
Celtics$5.2k @ 52.0¢
Celtics vs. PistonsWon
Pistons$4.7k @ 47.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$32 @ 61.0¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsWon
Tampa Bay Rays$76 @ 56.0¢
Milan: Juan Martin vs David Jorda SanchisWon
Juan Martin$36 @ 39.0¢
Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian BaezLost
Sebastian Baez$10 @ 46.0¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesLost
Pittsburgh Pirates$55 @ 42.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?Lost
Yes$21 @ 20.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)Won
Ramazan Temirov$2 @ 52.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$52 @ 67.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
No$19 @ 25.0¢
Croatia Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Federico Agustin GomezWon
Federico Agustin Gomez$88 @ 48.0¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceLost
Switzerland$6 @ 27.0¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsLost
G2 Esports$6 @ 16.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-26?Won
Yes$64 @ 61.0¢
Milan: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Stefano TravagliaWon
Enrico Dalla Valle$9 @ 47.0¢
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$5 @ 72.0¢
Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Joao FonsecaWon
Roman Safiullin$4 @ 24.0¢
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles AngelsWon
Boston Red Sox$64 @ 49.0¢
Will Aurélien Tchouaméni score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1 @ 78.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$106 @ 13.0¢
Braunschweig: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Max SchoenhausWon
Max Schoenhaus$7 @ 34.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$18 @ 86.0¢
Washington Nationals vs. AthleticsWon
Washington Nationals$69 @ 58.0¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$15 @ 64.0¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 14.0¢
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kiwoom HeroesWon
Kiwoom Heroes$14 @ 72.0¢
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit KoprivaWon
Ethan Quinn$38 @ 63.0¢
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 34.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 15.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Won
Yes$8 @ 70.0¢
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra MarcinkoLost
Caty McNally$22 @ 70.0¢
Cary: Tung-Lin Wu vs Bernard TomicLost
Bernard Tomic$75 @ 49.9¢
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. KT WizWon
Lotte Giants$46 @ 43.0¢
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
No$23 @ 35.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$225 @ 82.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Lost
No$6 @ 14.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$171 @ 80.0¢
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$213 @ 87.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$156 @ 88.0¢
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.2B?Won
Yes$118 @ 82.0¢
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Lost
No$645 @ 53.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	No	$142	53.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$54	72.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$32	84.0¢
Will Åsa Johansson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland?	Politics	Yes	$31	66.0¢
Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County?	Politics	Yes	$21	70.0¢

Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
No$142 @ 53.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$54 @ 72.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$32 @ 84.0¢
Will Åsa Johansson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland?Politics
Yes$31 @ 66.0¢
Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County?Politics
Yes$21 @ 70.0¢