0xbcd6…f3c8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbcd671efdc5dd18016e7577c8f05e2db8452f3c8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.2pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

62% @ 51.3¢

Brier

0.180

Resolved

265

Avg size

$56

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	63% (85/134)	+1%	134
Politics	54% (15/28)	+3%	28
Sports	100% (4/4)	+39%	4
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+116%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+22%	1

Other134 bets
Hit rate
63% (85/134)
ROI
+1%
Politics28 bets
Hit rate
54% (15/28)
ROI
+3%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+39%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+116%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%

Track record

63% hit · 107/169

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	No	$298	76.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$32	61.0¢	Lost
Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian Baez	Sebastian Baez	$10	46.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)	Ramazan Temirov	$2	52.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$89	13.0¢	Lost
Washington Nationals vs. Athletics	Washington Nationals	$69	58.0¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$15	64.0¢	Won
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	14.0¢	Lost
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$5	34.0¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	15.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	Yes	$8	70.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$225	82.0¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	No	$6	14.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$156	88.0¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$36	62.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	Yes	$18	44.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?	No	$87	86.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?	Yes	$95	87.0¢	Won
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$71	86.0¢	Won
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	$74	48.0¢	Lost
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?	Yes	$15	72.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	Yes	$24	67.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$59	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?	Yes	$74	77.0¢	Lost
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$471	84.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	No	$21	65.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$37	74.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$52	36.0¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	No	$84	79.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$115	85.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	Yes	$71	52.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$17	65.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$13	60.0¢	Won
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$77	73.0¢	Won
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$123	86.0¢	Won
Warsaw: Martyna Kubka vs Mona Barthel	Mona Barthel	$11	36.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19?	No	$23	60.0¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?	No	$59	66.0¢	Won
National Bank Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Elena Rybakina	Daria Kasatkina	$18	13.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$7	56.0¢	Won
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?	Yes	$33	68.0¢	Won
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?	Yes	$120	73.0¢	Won
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$190	69.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	30.0¢	Won
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	No	$85	76.0¢	Won
LoL: Maryville University vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winner	Maryville University	$4	57.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$32	40.0¢	Won
Cincinnati Open: Maya Joint vs Tamara Korpatsch	Tamara Korpatsch	$50	32.0¢	Won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs	Yes	$11	50.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?	No	$236	43.0¢	Lost

Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsWon
No$298 @ 76.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$32 @ 61.0¢
Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian BaezLost
Sebastian Baez$10 @ 46.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)Won
Ramazan Temirov$2 @ 52.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$89 @ 13.0¢
Washington Nationals vs. AthleticsWon
Washington Nationals$69 @ 58.0¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$15 @ 64.0¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 14.0¢
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 34.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 15.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Won
Yes$8 @ 70.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$225 @ 82.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Lost
No$6 @ 14.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$156 @ 88.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$36 @ 62.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?Won
Yes$18 @ 44.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Won
No$87 @ 86.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?Won
Yes$95 @ 87.0¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$71 @ 86.0¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansLost
Cleveland Guardians$74 @ 48.0¢
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?Won
Yes$15 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Won
Yes$24 @ 67.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$59 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 77.0¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$471 @ 84.0¢
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?Won
No$21 @ 65.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$37 @ 74.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$52 @ 36.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Won
No$84 @ 79.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$115 @ 85.0¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Won
Yes$71 @ 52.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
Yes$17 @ 65.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$13 @ 60.0¢
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$77 @ 73.0¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
No$123 @ 86.0¢
Warsaw: Martyna Kubka vs Mona BarthelWon
Mona Barthel$11 @ 36.0¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 19?Lost
No$23 @ 60.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?Won
No$59 @ 66.0¢
National Bank Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Elena RybakinaLost
Daria Kasatkina$18 @ 13.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 56.0¢
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?Won
Yes$33 @ 68.0¢
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?Won
Yes$120 @ 73.0¢
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$190 @ 69.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 30.0¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?Won
No$85 @ 76.0¢
LoL: Maryville University vs Winthrop University - Game 2 WinnerWon
Maryville University$4 @ 57.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$32 @ 40.0¢
Cincinnati Open: Maya Joint vs Tamara KorpatschWon
Tamara Korpatsch$50 @ 32.0¢
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsWon
Yes$11 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?Lost
No$236 @ 43.0¢

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