0xbc1f…8f78

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other135 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (81/135)

  ROI

  +15%

• Politics76 bets

  Hit rate

  54% (41/76)

  ROI

  +3%

• Tech39 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (23/39)

  ROI

  +14%

• Geopolitics35 bets

  Hit rate

  49% (17/35)

  ROI

  +5%

• Business13 bets

  Hit rate

  31% (4/13)

  ROI

  -49%

• Economy11 bets

  Hit rate

  73% (8/11)

  ROI

  +57%

• Culture5 bets

  Hit rate

  40% (2/5)

  ROI

  +128%

• Science1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?Won
  No$20 @ 53.0¢
• Will Ulf Prange win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 35.0¢
• NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
  No$10 @ 68.0¢
• NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
  Yes$1 @ 69.0¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
  No$38 @ 52.7¢
• Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 74.0¢
• Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Won
  Yes$6 @ 73.0¢
• Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?Won
  No$10 @ 63.0¢
• Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 70.9¢
• Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
  No$10 @ 80.0¢
• Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 23.3¢
• Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in September?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 54.0¢
• Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$20 @ 64.9¢
• Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Won
  No$51 @ 70.5¢
• Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 31.3¢
• Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?Won
  Yes$10 @ 76.0¢
• Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$60 @ 56.2¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
  Yes$41 @ 23.0¢
• Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$10 @ 60.0¢
• Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in July?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 12.5¢
• Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?Lost
  No$10 @ 73.0¢
• Next DeepSeek Pro released by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$8 @ 65.0¢
• Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in September?Won
  No$10 @ 75.0¢
• Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Won
  No$2 @ 57.0¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Won
  No$10 @ 80.0¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 59.0¢
• EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?Won
  Yes$15 @ 51.4¢
• US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 34.0¢
• Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September?Won
  No$4 @ 62.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 14.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 76.0¢
• Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$20 @ 72.0¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
  No$22 @ 30.2¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
  Yes$49 @ 73.2¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
  Yes$2 @ 75.0¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
• Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Lost
  No$20 @ 67.5¢
• Will ADI win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?Won
  No$3 @ 62.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?Won
  Yes$5 @ 75.0¢
• Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.7%?Won
  Yes$10 @ 47.9¢
• Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$11 @ 44.0¢
• Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Lost
  No$5 @ 38.3¢
• Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Won
  Yes$10 @ 64.0¢
• Will Linke win 40 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
  Yes$6 @ 25.0¢
• Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 20.1¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$56 @ 66.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$58 @ 29.8¢
• Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Won
  No$10 @ 25.0¢
• Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 68.0¢

Current positions

• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
  Yes$61 @ 59.8¢
• Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$40 @ 52.5¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$30 @ 67.7¢
• Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$29 @ 66.6¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$29 @ 62.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$28 @ 47.4¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$25 @ 44.8¢
• Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Politics
  Yes$24 @ 44.0¢
• Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$23 @ 74.7¢
• Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?Politics
  Yes$21 @ 77.4¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics
  Yes$20 @ 77.7¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$20 @ 79.5¢
• Will Gary Sulz win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$20 @ 55.6¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
  No$20 @ 71.5¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$20 @ 62.8¢
• Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$20 @ 74.0¢
• Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?Geopolitics
  No$18 @ 52.6¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics
  No$17 @ 66.3¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$16 @ 68.3¢
• Will Kyle Hamilton win the 2026 Fernie mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$15 @ 40.3¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$15 @ 21.1¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$14 @ 36.3¢
• Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$14 @ 45.9¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$13 @ 53.6¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$13 @ 48.6¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
  No$12 @ 75.8¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$11 @ 25.4¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics
  No$11 @ 20.2¢
• Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
  Yes$10 @ 33.2¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$10 @ 78.6¢