0xbbea…e2b0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbbea56528e414e3a494c5bc23d93770cc91ae2b0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.7pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

54% @ 44.8¢

Brier

0.121

Resolved

472

Avg size

$257

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	45% (60/134)	+11%	134
Politics	50% (3/6)	+28%	6
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	+41%	3
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other134 bets
Hit rate
45% (60/134)
ROI
+11%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+28%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+41%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

45% hit · 65/145

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Yoon arrested before September?	No	$30	19.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 9?	Yes	$12	6.0¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	No	$168	21.0¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	$100	89.7¢	Won
DoorDash total orders above 900M in Q1?	No	$3	5.1¢	Lost
Will General Mills (GIS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	No	$27	29.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$890	8.9¢	Lost
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?	Yes	$25	12.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 11?	No	$36	71.0¢	Won
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?	No	$104	26.0¢	Lost
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$100	17.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 10?	Yes	$15	51.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Iran" during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?	No	$22	34.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?	Yes	$10	87.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$100	73.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$359	31.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11?	No	$46	65.8¢	Won
LoL: Team Heretics vs GIANTX (BO1)	Team Heretics	$7	49.0¢	Won
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner	Bushido Wildcats	$4	80.0¢	Won
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Yes	$450	45.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?	No	$200	69.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?	No	$186	55.0¢	Won
LoL: SK Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO1)	SK Gaming	$72	10.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Peanut" or "squirrel" during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?	No	$28	89.0¢	Won
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$131	26.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Mexico" 4 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?	No	$10	35.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9?	No	$170	76.2¢	Won
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?	No	$380	59.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$4.7k	48.0¢	Won
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	$477	59.6¢	Won
Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024?	Yes	$8	11.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$11.4k	75.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?	No	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?	Yes	$50	7.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?	Yes	$20	77.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 9?	Yes	$5	2.2¢	Lost
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 15?	No	$200	88.0¢	Won
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?	No	$1.0k	50.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?	No	$16	60.0¢	Lost
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?	Yes	$8	23.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?	Yes	$10	13.2¢	Lost
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?	Yes	$20	80.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$3.4k	49.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 8?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	No	$244	2.8¢	Lost
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?	No	$340	85.8¢	Won
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?	Yes	$629	78.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Linda McMahon for Commerce Secretary?	Yes	$35	46.0¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$6.1k	22.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$36.6k	85.5¢	Won

Yoon arrested before September?Lost
No$30 @ 19.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 9?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Lost
No$168 @ 21.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Won
No$100 @ 89.7¢
DoorDash total orders above 900M in Q1?Lost
No$3 @ 5.1¢
Will General Mills (GIS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?Lost
No$27 @ 29.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$890 @ 8.9¢
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?Lost
Yes$25 @ 12.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 11?Won
No$36 @ 71.0¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Lost
No$104 @ 26.0¢
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$100 @ 17.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 10?Won
Yes$15 @ 51.2¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Won
No$22 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?Lost
Yes$10 @ 87.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$100 @ 73.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$359 @ 31.8¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11?Won
No$46 @ 65.8¢
LoL: Team Heretics vs GIANTX (BO1)Won
Team Heretics$7 @ 49.0¢
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs PCIFIC - Game 2 WinnerWon
Bushido Wildcats$4 @ 80.0¢
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Won
Yes$450 @ 45.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?Won
No$200 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Won
No$186 @ 55.0¢
LoL: SK Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO1)Lost
SK Gaming$72 @ 10.8¢
Will Trump say "Peanut" or "squirrel" during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?Won
No$28 @ 89.0¢
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup?Won
Yes$131 @ 26.9¢
Will Trump say "Mexico" 4 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?Lost
No$10 @ 35.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9?Won
No$170 @ 76.2¢
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?Won
No$380 @ 59.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$4.7k @ 48.0¢
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Won
Yes$477 @ 59.6¢
Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024?Lost
Yes$8 @ 11.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$11.4k @ 75.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Lost
No$3 @ 0.3¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?Lost
Yes$50 @ 7.3¢
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Won
Yes$20 @ 77.2¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 9?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.2¢
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 15?Won
No$200 @ 88.0¢
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?Lost
No$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?Lost
No$16 @ 60.0¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?Lost
Yes$8 @ 23.0¢
Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?Lost
Yes$10 @ 13.2¢
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?Won
Yes$20 @ 80.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$3.4k @ 49.8¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 8?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Lost
No$244 @ 2.8¢
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?Won
No$340 @ 85.8¢
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?Lost
Yes$629 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump nominate Linda McMahon for Commerce Secretary?Lost
Yes$35 @ 46.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$6.1k @ 22.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$36.6k @ 85.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$14.9k	63.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$13.6k	92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$5.2k	77.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$894	88.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$690	92.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$476	27.0¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Culture	No	$237	28.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$64	0.7¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Politics	No	$27	78.1¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$20	45.1¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5	4.9¢
Will Anyone's Legend win Worlds 2026?	Sports	Yes	$3	3.3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$14.9k @ 63.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$13.6k @ 92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$5.2k @ 77.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$894 @ 88.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$690 @ 92.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
No$476 @ 27.0¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Culture
No$237 @ 28.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$64 @ 0.7¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Politics
No$27 @ 78.1¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$20 @ 45.1¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$5 @ 4.9¢
Will Anyone's Legend win Worlds 2026?Sports
Yes$3 @ 3.3¢