0xbbe3…5b92

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbbe3fb94608928651123d69231c0213ef6e75b92
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.5pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

43% @ 31.6¢

Brier

0.124

Resolved

770

Avg size

$20

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	25% (20/81)	+33%	81
Politics	28% (11/39)	-12%	39
Geopolitics	6% (2/31)	+16%	31
Business	50% (1/2)	+18%	2

Other81 bets
Hit rate
25% (20/81)
ROI
+33%
Politics39 bets
Hit rate
28% (11/39)
ROI
-12%
Geopolitics31 bets
Hit rate
6% (2/31)
ROI
+16%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+18%

Track record

22% hit · 34/153

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?	Yes	$354	4.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	41.2¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	Yes	$10	12.7¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$10	41.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$10	4.4¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$25	24.0¢	Won
Will Belgium be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	12.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$60	2.0¢	Lost
Will Azerbaijan be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	3.9¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	3.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	Yes	$10	32.0¢	Lost
Will Latvia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	$27	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	$31	32.4¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	15.0¢	Lost
Will Azerbaijan be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	3.4¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	No	$291	24.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$160	6.9¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in April 2026?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	3.3¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	$20	0.5¢	Lost
Will Georgia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$2	10.9¢	Lost
Will Armenia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	3.2¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$40	19.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	Yes	$10	9.7¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Yes	$10	9.1¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?	Yes	$242	6.5¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$20	1.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	No	$10	29.6¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$85	26.7¢	Lost
Will Norway be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	16.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?	No	$21	7.3¢	Lost
Will Georgia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	7.3¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	No	$7.6k	67.4¢	Won
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	$71	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$10	6.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	Yes	$10	28.6¢	Lost
Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$2	6.0¢	Lost
Will San Marino be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$0	2.6¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?	Yes	$20	1.3¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$40	35.5¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$10	38.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$5	2.1¢	Won
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	$12	9.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?	Yes	$31	17.2¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	No	$20	1.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Lost
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$10	2.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?	Yes	$10	1.4¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	0.8¢	Lost

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?Lost
Yes$354 @ 4.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 41.2¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Lost
Yes$10 @ 12.7¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$10 @ 41.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.4¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$25 @ 24.0¢
Will Belgium be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.2¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$60 @ 2.0¢
Will Azerbaijan be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 3.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Lost
Yes$10 @ 32.0¢
Will Latvia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Won
No$27 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Lost
Yes$31 @ 32.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 15.0¢
Will Azerbaijan be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.4¢
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?Lost
No$291 @ 24.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$160 @ 6.9¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in April 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Lost
No$20 @ 0.5¢
Will Georgia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.9¢
Will Armenia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$40 @ 19.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.7¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.1¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?Lost
Yes$242 @ 6.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$20 @ 1.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Lost
No$10 @ 29.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$85 @ 26.7¢
Will Norway be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.3¢
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?Lost
No$21 @ 7.3¢
Will Georgia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.3¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?Won
No$7.6k @ 67.4¢
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Won
No$71 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.6¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 28.6¢
Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.0¢
Will San Marino be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?Lost
Yes$20 @ 1.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$40 @ 35.5¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 38.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$5 @ 2.1¢
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 9.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?Lost
Yes$31 @ 17.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?Lost
No$20 @ 1.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.8¢

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