0xba45…87f3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xba45273d5e0311d0185190dd6fa9d3a7a15287f3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-8.1pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

32% @ 40.5¢

Brier

0.196

Resolved

622

Avg size

$118

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (44/103)	+4%	103
Sports	40% (2/5)	+71%	5
Politics	40% (2/5)	-14%	5
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other103 bets
Hit rate
43% (44/103)
ROI
+4%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+71%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-14%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

42% hit · 48/115

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Stars vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	$530	53.0¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$610	61.0¢	Lost
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Makhachev	$6.0k	73.0¢	Won
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$70	70.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's latest video get 20–22 million views on day 1?	No	$231	55.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's latest video get 20–22 million views on day 1?	Yes	$992	12.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 24?	Yes	$23	1.5¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs	Nigma Galaxy	$190	19.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs	Team Spirit	$200	80.0¢	Lost
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks	Trail Blazers	$2.4k	61.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase October 28-November 3?	Yes	$23	23.0¢	Lost
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)	Pistons	$1.1k	54.0¢	Won
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5	Under	$3.1k	53.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?	Yes	$92	54.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$12	0.2¢	Lost
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?	Yes	$230	23.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner	PARIVISION	$581	48.0¢	Lost
Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 216.5	Over	$1.3k	53.0¢	Won
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	$64	71.0¢	Won
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$0	1.3¢	Lost
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$16	8.2¢	Lost
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$2	40.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?	Yes	$20	10.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$23	2.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	No	$25	30.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner	Spirit	$23	43.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner	Vitality	$67	67.0¢	Lost
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	$80	80.0¢	Won
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes?	No	$332	66.4¢	Won
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	No	$48	9.6¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	Astralis	$762	76.0¢	Won
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	$36	72.0¢	Lost
Oilers vs. Utah	Utah	$570	56.7¢	Won
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5)	FURIA	$62	62.0¢	Won
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?	Yes	$357	71.4¢	Won
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	$40	89.0¢	Won
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	No	$79	39.5¢	Won
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	Yes	$902	41.4¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$20	5.1¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	No	$56	6.2¢	Lost
Hurricanes vs. Flyers	Hurricanes	$1.0k	41.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs	Spirit	$5.1k	67.5¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs	Team Falcons	$41	33.0¢	Lost
0x4c27acaa…	Team Falcons	$1.1k	38.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	13.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$26	4.3¢	Lost
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	$129	36.8¢	Won
Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva win on 2025-11-09?	Yes	$40	65.0¢	Won
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?	Yes	$36	6.0¢	Lost
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	$61	61.0¢	Lost

Stars vs. CanadiensLost
Canadiens$530 @ 53.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$610 @ 61.0¢
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Won
Makhachev$6.0k @ 73.0¢
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
No$70 @ 70.0¢
Will MrBeast's latest video get 20–22 million views on day 1?Won
No$231 @ 55.0¢
Will MrBeast's latest video get 20–22 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$992 @ 12.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 24?Lost
Yes$23 @ 1.5¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES PlayoffsWon
Nigma Galaxy$190 @ 19.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES PlayoffsLost
Team Spirit$200 @ 80.0¢
Trail Blazers vs. MavericksLost
Trail Blazers$2.4k @ 61.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase October 28-November 3?Lost
Yes$23 @ 23.0¢
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Won
Pistons$1.1k @ 54.0¢
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5Won
Under$3.1k @ 53.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?Lost
Yes$92 @ 54.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.2¢
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
Yes$230 @ 23.0¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerLost
PARIVISION$581 @ 48.0¢
Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 216.5Won
Over$1.3k @ 53.0¢
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?Won
No$64 @ 71.0¢
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?Lost
No$0 @ 1.3¢
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$16 @ 8.2¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$2 @ 40.0¢
Will Sweden win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?Won
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$23 @ 2.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?Lost
No$25 @ 30.0¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 WinnerWon
Spirit$23 @ 43.0¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 WinnerLost
Vitality$67 @ 67.0¢
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?Won
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes?Won
No$332 @ 66.4¢
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Lost
No$48 @ 9.6¢
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group StageWon
Astralis$762 @ 76.0¢
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
No$36 @ 72.0¢
Oilers vs. UtahWon
Utah$570 @ 56.7¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5)Won
FURIA$62 @ 62.0¢
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?Won
Yes$357 @ 71.4¢
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?Won
No$40 @ 89.0¢
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Won
No$79 @ 39.5¢
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Lost
Yes$902 @ 41.4¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Lost
No$20 @ 5.1¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Lost
No$56 @ 6.2¢
Hurricanes vs. FlyersLost
Hurricanes$1.0k @ 41.0¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana PlayoffsWon
Spirit$5.1k @ 67.5¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana PlayoffsLost
Team Falcons$41 @ 33.0¢
0x4c27acaa…Lost
Team Falcons$1.1k @ 38.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 13.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$26 @ 4.3¢
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?Won
No$129 @ 36.8¢
Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva win on 2025-11-09?Won
Yes$40 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?Lost
Yes$36 @ 6.0¢
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
No$61 @ 61.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$3.7k	50.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$3.7k	50.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$952	95.2¢
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$363	92.0¢

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$3.7k @ 50.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$3.7k @ 50.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$952 @ 95.2¢
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$363 @ 92.0¢