0xba38…f74d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xba38f6073ca6434b91e9969d66d2a17d6075f74d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-2.9pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

23% @ 26.0¢

Brier

0.130

Resolved

1747

Avg size

$29

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	31% (134/437)	-3%	437
Politics	34% (33/96)	-9%	96
Crypto	39% (11/28)	+5%	28
Tech	50% (10/20)	+11%	20
Sports	16% (3/19)	+632%	19
Geopolitics	33% (6/18)	-28%	18
Culture	14% (1/7)	-0%	7
Economy	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other437 bets
Hit rate
31% (134/437)
ROI
-3%
Politics96 bets
Hit rate
34% (33/96)
ROI
-9%
Crypto28 bets
Hit rate
39% (11/28)
ROI
+5%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
+11%
Sports19 bets
Hit rate
16% (3/19)
ROI
+632%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
33% (6/18)
ROI
-28%
Culture7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-0%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

31% hit · 198/632

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
AZ vs. FC Twente: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$24	68.0¢	Lost
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	$50	32.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	No	$53	66.0¢	Lost
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?	No	$51	72.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$25	0.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 28-October 4?	Yes	$52	4.3¢	Lost
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	Yes	$211	67.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on December 30?	Yes	$44	37.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	No	$22	6.5¢	Lost
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million and $3.0 million by December 16?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$190	1.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 23?	Yes	$24	34.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 28?	Yes	$272	69.7¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$67	38.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$286	31.6¢	Lost
Will Bryn Kenney win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?	Yes	$10	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 28?	Yes	$14	20.0¢	Lost
Epstein client list released in 2025?	Yes	$20	4.5¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?	Yes	$49	16.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$52	75.0¢	Lost
No airdrop in 2025?	Yes	$151	14.0¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 23?	No	$3	3.0¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	$26	87.0¢	Lost
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	1.3¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$100	8.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$105	70.0¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$27	15.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$221	86.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$23	8.9¢	Lost
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?	No	$130	86.6¢	Won
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?	Yes	$6	4.0¢	Lost
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?	Yes	$4	13.0¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$159	10.5¢	Lost
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?	Yes	$4	2.7¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	$114	67.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$67	32.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	$94	32.5¢	Won
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	No	$75	58.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$14	35.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 5?	No	$23	82.0¢	Won
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	$59	23.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $660b and $670b on December 31?	Yes	$0	1.7¢	Lost
Will Sean Winter win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?	Yes	$7	0.1¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$204	68.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 14?	Yes	$106	35.0¢	Lost
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$54	2.7¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?	No	$87	38.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on December 12?	Yes	$17	40.0¢	Won

AZ vs. FC Twente: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$24 @ 68.0¢
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-25?Lost
Yes$50 @ 32.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?Lost
No$53 @ 66.0¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?Lost
No$51 @ 72.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 0.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 28-October 4?Lost
Yes$52 @ 4.3¢
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?Lost
Yes$211 @ 67.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on December 30?Lost
Yes$44 @ 37.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?Lost
No$22 @ 6.5¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million and $3.0 million by December 16?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$190 @ 1.9¢
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 23?Lost
Yes$24 @ 34.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 28?Won
Yes$272 @ 69.7¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$67 @ 38.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$286 @ 31.6¢
Will Bryn Kenney win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$14 @ 20.0¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Lost
Yes$20 @ 4.5¢
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?Lost
Yes$49 @ 16.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$52 @ 75.0¢
No airdrop in 2025?Lost
Yes$151 @ 14.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 23?Lost
No$3 @ 3.0¢
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Lost
No$26 @ 87.0¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.3¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$100 @ 8.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$105 @ 70.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$27 @ 15.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$221 @ 86.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$23 @ 8.9¢
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?Won
No$130 @ 86.6¢
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.0¢
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 13.0¢
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Lost
Yes$159 @ 10.5¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.7¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
No$114 @ 67.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$67 @ 32.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?Won
No$94 @ 32.5¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Won
No$75 @ 58.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 35.1¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 5?Won
No$23 @ 82.0¢
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?Lost
No$59 @ 23.3¢
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $660b and $670b on December 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.7¢
Will Sean Winter win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.1¢
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Won
Yes$204 @ 68.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 14?Lost
Yes$106 @ 35.0¢
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$54 @ 2.7¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Lost
No$87 @ 38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on December 12?Won
Yes$17 @ 40.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$129	17.0¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$126	68.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$83	26.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$68	17.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$52	4.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$50	19.0¢
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-25?	Sports	Yes	$50	32.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$49	5.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$44	33.0¢
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$39	23.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Politics	Yes	$27	37.0¢
AZ vs. FC Twente: Both Teams to Score	Sports	Yes	$24	68.0¢
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$24	8.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$24	31.9¢
Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$24	83.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$21	26.7¢
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1	6.0¢

Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$129 @ 17.0¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$126 @ 68.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$83 @ 26.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$68 @ 17.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$52 @ 4.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$50 @ 19.0¢
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-25?Sports
Yes$50 @ 32.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$49 @ 5.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$44 @ 33.0¢
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$39 @ 23.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Politics
Yes$27 @ 37.0¢
AZ vs. FC Twente: Both Teams to ScoreSports
Yes$24 @ 68.0¢
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$24 @ 8.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$24 @ 31.9¢
Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$24 @ 83.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
Yes$21 @ 26.7¢
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Crypto
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢