0xba1f…4258

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xba1fda79aa26888e0536247cee7c67c6b5294258
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.8pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

40% @ 35.4¢

Brier

0.197

Resolved

555

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	40% (33/82)	+6%	82
Other	42% (16/38)	+33%	38
Geopolitics	25% (6/24)	-57%	24
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+189%	2

Politics82 bets
Hit rate
40% (33/82)
ROI
+6%
Other38 bets
Hit rate
42% (16/38)
ROI
+33%
Geopolitics24 bets
Hit rate
25% (6/24)
ROI
-57%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+189%

Track record

37% hit · 56/150

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$52	49.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$32	26.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$21	14.1¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$9	34.0¢	Lost
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$10	12.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$78	20.7¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$167	38.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$26	48.6¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$100	59.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$44	23.1¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	Yes	$14	38.9¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	14.3¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$18	17.1¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$24	3.3¢	Lost
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?	Yes	$10	40.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$306	17.6¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$12	19.0¢	Lost
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$11	29.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$55	38.7¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$65	61.9¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$78	30.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	Yes	$17	11.9¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$74	29.5¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$40	33.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$35	43.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$47	45.1¢	Won
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	$15	52.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$168	25.1¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$93	28.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$78	45.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$6	32.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$143	29.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$24	16.6¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July?	Yes	$2	81.0¢	Won
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$20	50.6¢	Won
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$11	13.4¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	$44	65.3¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$125	15.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$28	9.9¢	Lost
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?	No	$15	24.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$15	36.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$20	27.3¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$68	44.3¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$97	38.4¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26?	Yes	$35	24.6¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$101	9.5¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$10	49.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$20	37.6¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$80	37.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$120	45.7¢	Won

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$52 @ 49.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 26.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 14.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$9 @ 34.0¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 12.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$78 @ 20.7¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$167 @ 38.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$26 @ 48.6¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$100 @ 59.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$44 @ 23.1¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Lost
Yes$14 @ 38.9¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 14.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$18 @ 17.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$24 @ 3.3¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 40.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$306 @ 17.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$12 @ 19.0¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 29.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$55 @ 38.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$65 @ 61.9¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$78 @ 30.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Lost
Yes$17 @ 11.9¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$74 @ 29.5¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$40 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$35 @ 43.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$47 @ 45.1¢
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?Lost
No$15 @ 52.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$168 @ 25.1¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
Yes$93 @ 28.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$78 @ 45.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 32.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$143 @ 29.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 16.6¢
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July?Won
Yes$2 @ 81.0¢
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 50.6¢
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 13.4¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Won
No$44 @ 65.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$125 @ 15.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$28 @ 9.9¢
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?Won
No$15 @ 24.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 36.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$20 @ 27.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$68 @ 44.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$97 @ 38.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26?Lost
Yes$35 @ 24.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$101 @ 9.5¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 49.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$20 @ 37.6¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$80 @ 37.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$120 @ 45.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$392	30.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$199	13.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$119	8.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$76	59.5¢
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$41	57.6¢
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$35	37.7¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$18	25.3¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	47.4¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3	76.0¢
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	10.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$392 @ 30.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
Yes$199 @ 13.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$119 @ 8.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$76 @ 59.5¢
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$41 @ 57.6¢
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$35 @ 37.7¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$18 @ 25.3¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 47.4¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 76.0¢
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢