0xb980…73b0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb98044b49fdb4b06b88e9628a4e56366057473b0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

47% @ 40.2¢

Brier

0.165

Resolved

1243

Avg size

$25

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (138/288)	+20%	288
Politics	51% (44/86)	+15%	86
Tech	23% (14/60)	-0%	60
Sports	44% (16/36)	+57%	36
Crypto	41% (13/32)	+101%	32
Geopolitics	50% (14/28)	+17%	28
Culture	45% (5/11)	-28%	11
Economy	33% (2/6)	+22%	6

Other288 bets
Hit rate
48% (138/288)
ROI
+20%
Politics86 bets
Hit rate
51% (44/86)
ROI
+15%
Tech60 bets
Hit rate
23% (14/60)
ROI
-0%
Sports36 bets
Hit rate
44% (16/36)
ROI
+57%
Crypto32 bets
Hit rate
41% (13/32)
ROI
+101%
Geopolitics28 bets
Hit rate
50% (14/28)
ROI
+17%
Culture11 bets
Hit rate
45% (5/11)
ROI
-28%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+22%

Track record

45% hit · 246/547

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Thinky have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Meituan have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will Amazon have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will MiniMax have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will MiniMax have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will StepFun have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Tencent have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will Microsoft have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will Tencent have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will ByteDance have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will Meituan have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Mistral have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Nvidia have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will StepFun have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will Mistral have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will Baidu have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will the median home value in the US be between $440,000 and $447,000 on September 30?	Yes	$0	14.3¢	Lost
Will the median home value in the US be at least $454,000 on September 30?	Yes	$1	14.3¢	Lost
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30?	No	$33	85.3¢	Won
Will Ulf Prange win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?	No	$24	49.4¢	Won
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch	Yes	$6	23.0¢	Lost
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by June 30?	Yes	$7	5.1¢	Lost
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?	No	$2	29.0¢	Lost
Spread: Australia (-2.5)	Australia	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026?	Yes	$6	19.0¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?	No	$5	25.0¢	Lost
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	No	$17	18.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $205?	No	$2	10.4¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$407	42.6¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$522	26.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$743	75.3¢	Won
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	No	$34	33.8¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$43	29.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	$0	60.0¢	Lost
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of April 13 2026?	Yes	$11	54.0¢	Won
Spread: CD Concepción (-1.5)	CD Concepción	$5	14.5¢	Lost
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June?	No	$8	59.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?	Yes	$62	7.0¢	Lost
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $140 end of June?	Yes	$3	43.0¢	Lost

Will Thinky have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Meituan have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will Amazon have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will MiniMax have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will Nvidia have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will MiniMax have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will StepFun have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Tencent have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will Microsoft have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will Tencent have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will ByteDance have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will Meituan have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Mistral have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Nvidia have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will StepFun have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will Mistral have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will Baidu have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will the median home value in the US be between $440,000 and $447,000 on September 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 14.3¢
Will the median home value in the US be at least $454,000 on September 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.3¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30?Won
No$33 @ 85.3¢
Will Ulf Prange win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?Won
No$24 @ 49.4¢
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launchLost
Yes$6 @ 23.0¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 5.1¢
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?Lost
No$2 @ 29.0¢
Spread: Australia (-2.5)Lost
Australia$2 @ 3.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 19.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 25.0¢
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?Lost
No$17 @ 18.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $205?Lost
No$2 @ 10.4¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$407 @ 42.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$522 @ 26.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$743 @ 75.3¢
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Lost
No$34 @ 33.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$43 @ 29.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Lost
No$0 @ 60.0¢
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of April 13 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 54.0¢
Spread: CD Concepción (-1.5)Lost
CD Concepción$5 @ 14.5¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June?Won
No$8 @ 59.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?Lost
Yes$62 @ 7.0¢
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $140 end of June?Lost
Yes$3 @ 43.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?	Politics	No	$706	95.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$686	97.8¢
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$390	94.8¢
Ventuals FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$294	95.1¢
Ventuals FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$275	94.4¢
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$250	95.1¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$206	83.0¢
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$180	96.6¢
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$152	97.2¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $84 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$137	61.7¢
Will Prime Intellect launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$125	44.5¢
Will Prime Intellect launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Crypto	No	$124	44.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $12.75B by September 30?	Other	Yes	$120	22.8¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?	Other	No	$117	90.0¢
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$111	96.6¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $80 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$109	86.0¢
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$87	91.6¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?	Other	No	$77	96.8¢
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$75	92.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	Tech	No	$70	88.8¢
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?	Crypto	No	$68	80.7¢
Will Plasma reach $2.00 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$63	93.8¢
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$56	89.0¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $115B by September 30?	Other	Yes	$55	22.9¢
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch	Crypto	No	$49	60.6¢
Betmoar FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$48	92.6¢
Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$46	95.0¢
GMGN FDV above $800M one day after launch	Crypto	No	$43	82.3¢
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$39	96.0¢
Printr FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$38	93.3¢

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?Politics
No$706 @ 95.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$686 @ 97.8¢
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$390 @ 94.8¢
Ventuals FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
No$294 @ 95.1¢
Ventuals FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
No$275 @ 94.4¢
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?Crypto
No$250 @ 95.1¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in September?Crypto
Yes$206 @ 83.0¢
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto
No$180 @ 96.6¢
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$152 @ 97.2¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $84 in September?Crypto
Yes$137 @ 61.7¢
Will Prime Intellect launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$125 @ 44.5¢
Will Prime Intellect launch a token by September 30, 2027?Crypto
No$124 @ 44.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $12.75B by September 30?Other
Yes$120 @ 22.8¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?Other
No$117 @ 90.0¢
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$111 @ 96.6¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $80 in September?Crypto
Yes$109 @ 86.0¢
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?Crypto
No$87 @ 91.6¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?Other
No$77 @ 96.8¢
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch?Crypto
No$75 @ 92.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Tech
No$70 @ 88.8¢
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?Crypto
No$68 @ 80.7¢
Will Plasma reach $2.00 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$63 @ 93.8¢
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$56 @ 89.0¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $115B by September 30?Other
Yes$55 @ 22.9¢
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launchCrypto
No$49 @ 60.6¢
Betmoar FDV above $400M one day after launch?Crypto
No$48 @ 92.6¢
Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$46 @ 95.0¢
GMGN FDV above $800M one day after launchCrypto
No$43 @ 82.3¢
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$39 @ 96.0¢
Printr FDV above $800M one day after launch?Crypto
No$38 @ 93.3¢