0xb8fe…ce76

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb8fe807aa951e35af53fd0fee36abc303864ce76
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+39%

Win rate

30% @ 26.4¢

Brier

0.090

Resolved

4177

Avg size

$69

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (141/356)	+42%	356
Politics	31% (22/70)	-13%	70
Science	62% (21/34)	+1%	34
Geopolitics	58% (18/31)	+11%	31
Tech	25% (1/4)	-10%	4
Crypto	33% (1/3)	+19%	3

Other356 bets
Hit rate
40% (141/356)
ROI
+42%
Politics70 bets
Hit rate
31% (22/70)
ROI
-13%
Science34 bets
Hit rate
62% (21/34)
ROI
+1%
Geopolitics31 bets
Hit rate
58% (18/31)
ROI
+11%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-10%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+19%

Track record

41% hit · 204/498

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal from NVIDIA board by November 13, 2026?	No	$110	81.5¢	Lost
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	$6.5k	51.8¢	Won
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	No	$7.3k	58.5¢	Lost
Israel military action against Lebanon on November 8?	No	$123	11.7¢	Lost
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	$126	45.0¢	Won
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	$50	35.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	$19.7k	93.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	Yes	$804	97.7¢	Won
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?	No	$250	7.5¢	Lost
Will the biggest earthquake on November 7, 2026 be under 5.3?	No	$65	99.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	$9.9k	99.3¢	Won
Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	$468	92.9¢	Won
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	$419	84.6¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?	Yes	$954	95.5¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	$25.0k	50.0¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	$25.0k	50.0¢	Lost
Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	$207	99.9¢	Won
Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	$60	99.9¢	Won
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	No	$9	99.9¢	Won
Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	$42	99.9¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	No	$150	90.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Yes	$3	6.7¢	Lost
Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	No	$1	99.9¢	Won
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	$25	6.2¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be less than 66% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$25	5.0¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be between 66% and 68% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be between 72% and 74% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$8	4.2¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 72% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$375	99.8¢	Won
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be under 5.3?	No	$15	99.9¢	Won
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	$10	95.0¢	Lost
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Won
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	Yes	$5	91.0¢	Lost
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	$63	96.5¢	Lost
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	No	$15	99.9¢	Won
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	Yes	$185	98.4¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	$101	98.5¢	Won
Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$380	98.3¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?	Yes	$200	10.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$951	88.7¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?	Yes	$1	24.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?	No	$1	80.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	31.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?	Yes	$63	2.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	$100	0.3¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	36.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 18 2026?	Yes	$43	4.8¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$100	0.2¢	Lost

Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal from NVIDIA board by November 13, 2026?Lost
No$110 @ 81.5¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?Won
Yes$6.5k @ 51.8¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?Lost
No$7.3k @ 58.5¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on November 8?Lost
No$123 @ 11.7¢
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Won
No$126 @ 45.0¢
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Lost
No$50 @ 35.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Won
Yes$19.7k @ 93.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?Won
Yes$804 @ 97.7¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?Lost
No$250 @ 7.5¢
Will the biggest earthquake on November 7, 2026 be under 5.3?Won
No$65 @ 99.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Won
Yes$9.9k @ 99.3¢
Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Won
No$468 @ 92.9¢
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Won
Yes$419 @ 84.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Won
Yes$954 @ 95.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseWon
No$25.0k @ 50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseLost
Yes$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Won
Yes$207 @ 99.9¢
Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Won
Yes$60 @ 99.9¢
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Won
No$9 @ 99.9¢
Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Won
Yes$42 @ 99.9¢
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?Won
No$150 @ 90.0¢
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.7¢
Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?Won
No$1 @ 99.9¢
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Lost
No$25 @ 6.2¢
Will voter turnout be less than 66% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$25 @ 5.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 66% and 68% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 72% and 74% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.2¢
Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 72% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
Yes$375 @ 99.8¢
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be under 5.3?Won
No$15 @ 99.9¢
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be under 5.3?Lost
Yes$10 @ 95.0¢
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?Won
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?Lost
Yes$5 @ 91.0¢
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?Lost
Yes$63 @ 96.5¢
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?Won
No$15 @ 99.9¢
Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?Lost
Yes$185 @ 98.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Won
No$101 @ 98.5¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
Yes$380 @ 98.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?Lost
Yes$200 @ 10.0¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$951 @ 88.7¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 80.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 31.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$63 @ 2.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?Lost
Yes$100 @ 0.3¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 36.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 18 2026?Lost
Yes$43 @ 4.8¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$100 @ 0.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Geopolitics	Yes	$17.9k	90.3¢
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Tech	Yes	$10.0k	50.0¢
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Tech	No	$10.0k	50.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	Tech	No	$7.3k	58.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3.6k	89.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?	Other	Yes	$444	4.9¢
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Science	No	$312	52.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	Other	Yes	$236	7.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	Other	Yes	$220	11.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal from NVIDIA board by November 13, 2026?	Tech	No	$110	81.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Other	Yes	$87	13.0¢
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Science	No	$65	43.5¢
Israel military action against Iraq by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$30	87.7¢
Will the biggest earthquake on November 11, 2026 be under 5.3?	Science	No	$1	3.0¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
Yes$17.9k @ 90.3¢
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Tech
Yes$10.0k @ 50.0¢
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Tech
No$10.0k @ 50.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?Tech
No$7.3k @ 58.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Geopolitics
Yes$3.6k @ 89.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?Other
Yes$444 @ 4.9¢
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Science
No$312 @ 52.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?Other
Yes$236 @ 7.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?Other
Yes$220 @ 11.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal from NVIDIA board by November 13, 2026?Tech
No$110 @ 81.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?Other
Yes$87 @ 13.0¢
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Science
No$65 @ 43.5¢
Israel military action against Iraq by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$30 @ 87.7¢
Will the biggest earthquake on November 11, 2026 be under 5.3?Science
No$1 @ 3.0¢