0xb8fe…ce76

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb8fe807aa951e35af53fd0fee36abc303864ce76
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-4.4pp

ROI

+69%

Win rate

17% @ 21.3¢

Brier

0.077

Resolved

645

Avg size

$113

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (15/38)	+141%	38
Politics	14% (5/36)	-80%	36
Geopolitics	33% (3/9)	+43%	9
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other38 bets
Hit rate
39% (15/38)
ROI
+141%
Politics36 bets
Hit rate
14% (5/36)
ROI
-80%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
+43%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

27% hit · 23/84

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$951	88.7¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	$100	0.3¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$500	9.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$567	4.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$1.5k	12.7¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by July 31?	Yes	$98	4.9¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$2.0k	28.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$250	25.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	$514	1.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$6.7k	40.6¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$304	89.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$279	13.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?	Yes	$515	18.3¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	$250	5.9¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Yes	$275	7.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$20.4k	41.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$252	7.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 7?	Yes	$6	1.2¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	$526	56.1¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$749	25.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	$515	24.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	No	$1	55.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$2.5k	25.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$250	2.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	Yes	$152	1.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$250	7.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$125	14.5¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	No	$7.5k	87.8¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	Yes	$750	17.6¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$500	43.6¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$750	13.1¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$125	7.4¢	Lost
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?	No	$1.0k	83.7¢	Won
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	78.8¢	Lost
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	$397	81.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$125	11.6¢	Lost
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Yes	$173	60.7¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$100	9.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 17?	Yes	$150	54.5¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	$125	1.5¢	Lost
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$166	8.3¢	Lost
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	$250	33.8¢	Lost
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	$500	81.6¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	$129	12.0¢	Lost
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$50	3.5¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$4.3k	71.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$119	22.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on September 6?	Yes	$3	0.3¢	Lost

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$951 @ 88.7¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?Lost
Yes$100 @ 0.3¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$500 @ 9.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$567 @ 4.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 12.7¢
Iran leadership change by July 31?Lost
Yes$98 @ 4.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 28.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$250 @ 25.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?Lost
Yes$514 @ 1.5¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$6.7k @ 40.6¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$304 @ 89.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$279 @ 13.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?Lost
Yes$515 @ 18.3¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Lost
Yes$250 @ 5.9¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Lost
Yes$275 @ 7.2¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$20.4k @ 41.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$252 @ 7.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 7?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.2¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Lost
Yes$526 @ 56.1¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$749 @ 25.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Lost
Yes$515 @ 24.0¢
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?Won
No$1 @ 55.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$2.5k @ 25.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$250 @ 2.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?Lost
Yes$152 @ 1.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$250 @ 7.2¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$125 @ 14.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
No$7.5k @ 87.8¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Lost
Yes$750 @ 17.6¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$500 @ 43.6¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$750 @ 13.1¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
Yes$125 @ 7.4¢
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 83.7¢
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 78.8¢
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Won
No$397 @ 81.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$125 @ 11.6¢
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?Lost
Yes$173 @ 60.7¢
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 9.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 17?Lost
Yes$150 @ 54.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
Yes$125 @ 1.5¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$166 @ 8.3¢
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Lost
No$250 @ 33.8¢
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
Yes$500 @ 81.6¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?Lost
Yes$129 @ 12.0¢
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 3.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$4.3k @ 71.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$119 @ 22.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on September 6?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Politics	No	$25.0k	50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Politics	Yes	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Science	No	$632	45.0¢
Will Elon post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on X this week?	Tech	Yes	$34	48.4¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HousePolitics
No$25.0k @ 50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HousePolitics
Yes$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Science
No$632 @ 45.0¢
Will Elon post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on X this week?Tech
Yes$34 @ 48.4¢