← Smart money
0xb8e4…2dae
SharpEdge
+3.8pp
ROI
+21%
Win rate
42% @ 37.9¢
Brier
0.145
Resolved
2950
Avg size
$131
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 37% (94/253) | +15% | 253 |
| Politics | 42% (32/76) | +49% | 76 |
| Sports | 34% (11/32) | -38% | 32 |
| Geopolitics | 31% (4/13) | -49% | 13 |
| Tech | 43% (3/7) | -42% | 7 |
| Crypto | 50% (1/2) | +102% | 2 |
- Other253 bets
- Hit rate
- 37% (94/253)
- ROI
- +15%
- Politics76 bets
- Hit rate
- 42% (32/76)
- ROI
- +49%
- Sports32 bets
- Hit rate
- 34% (11/32)
- ROI
- -38%
- Geopolitics13 bets
- Hit rate
- 31% (4/13)
- ROI
- -49%
- Tech7 bets
- Hit rate
- 43% (3/7)
- ROI
- -42%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +102%
Track record
38% hit · 145/383- FaZe$90 @ 15.2¢
- Yes$324 @ 82.3¢
- Lorenzo Sonego$472 @ 58.0¢
- Spirit$9 @ 0.1¢
- Vitality$2.3k @ 75.0¢
- Yes$88 @ 35.2¢
- Yes$13 @ 3.7¢
- No$678 @ 18.3¢
- Natus Vincere$117 @ 2.7¢
- Vitality$370 @ 74.0¢
- Spirit$24 @ 1.0¢
- Team Falcons$409 @ 52.7¢
- Spurs$143 @ 47.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 31.5¢
- No$656 @ 82.0¢
- No$1.1k @ 21.4¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 79.0¢
- No$2.4k @ 81.8¢
- Yes$5.0k @ 8.6¢
- No$147 @ 70.0¢
- Yes$53 @ 25.0¢
- Yes$2.7k @ 18.9¢
- Yes$227 @ 6.7¢
- No$327 @ 9.9¢
- Yes$94 @ 19.8¢
- Yes$540 @ 6.0¢
- No$48 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$134 @ 45.0¢
- Lakers$705 @ 70.5¢
- Rockets$950 @ 25.8¢
- No$98 @ 1.1¢
- Flyers$44 @ 44.0¢
- Yes$28 @ 2.5¢
- Yes$577 @ 59.8¢
- Yes$160 @ 88.9¢
- No$457 @ 70.0¢
- No$92 @ 85.9¢
- Yes$565 @ 32.3¢
- Netherlands$193 @ 47.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$302 @ 13.6¢
- No$177 @ 65.0¢
- Nothing$45 @ 45.0¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 64.0¢
- No$172 @ 5.0¢
- FURIA$5.0k @ 32.6¢
- Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$432 @ 70.1¢
- No$2.5k @ 28.0¢
- Liquid$666 @ 20.9¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kash Patel out by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $212 | 53.0¢ |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $201 | 33.3¢ |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Science | No | $197 | 90.8¢ |
| Elon Bull Run Combo | Tech | No | $84 | 91.0¢ |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $81 | 27.0¢ |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | Politics | No | $55 | 6.0¢ |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | Crypto | Yes | $27 | 78.5¢ |
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | Politics | Yes | $12 | 2.3¢ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $4 | 20.7¢ |
| Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? | Sports | Yes | $2 | 10.6¢ |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 37.1¢ |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 15.0¢ |
- Kash Patel out by December 31?PoliticsYes$212 @ 53.0¢
- Yes$201 @ 33.3¢
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?ScienceNo$197 @ 90.8¢
- No$84 @ 91.0¢
- Yes$81 @ 27.0¢
- No$55 @ 6.0¢
- Yes$27 @ 78.5¢
- Will Iran legalize gay marriage?PoliticsYes$12 @ 2.3¢
- Yes$4 @ 20.7¢
- Yes$2 @ 10.6¢
- Yes$2 @ 37.1¢
- Yes$1 @ 15.0¢