0xb8ad…ff58

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb8ad2849635c9ce413f1fdd2e7b364bbfafeff58
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.1pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

46% @ 43.4¢

Brier

0.133

Resolved

2276

Avg size

$42

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	66% (90/137)	+10%	137
Other	50% (44/88)	+3%	88
Geopolitics	57% (16/28)	+4%	28
Sports	23% (5/22)	+8%	22
Tech	48% (10/21)	+12%	21
Economy	25% (1/4)	-66%	4
Science	100% (2/2)	+200%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Politics137 bets
Hit rate
66% (90/137)
ROI
+10%
Other88 bets
Hit rate
50% (44/88)
ROI
+3%
Geopolitics28 bets
Hit rate
57% (16/28)
ROI
+4%
Sports22 bets
Hit rate
23% (5/22)
ROI
+8%
Tech21 bets
Hit rate
48% (10/21)
ROI
+12%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-66%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+200%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

Track record

56% hit · 169/303

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$82	20.0¢	Lost
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$225	64.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$740	46.4¢	Lost
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$369	6.2¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$22	2.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$221	41.8¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$1.9k	84.5¢	Won
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$100	10.0¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$36	35.7¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$748	19.5¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$122	61.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	$65	35.5¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$406	67.7¢	Won
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$143	71.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$876	43.8¢	Lost
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?	Yes	$65	32.5¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$87	14.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$46	42.1¢	Lost
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Won
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Yes	$645	73.1¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$2.4k	80.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?	No	$345	86.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$747	68.7¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$739	70.4¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$35	5.7¢	Lost
Will Nicklas Sandström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?	Yes	$39	6.6¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$15	67.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$21	65.0¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$510	85.0¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$102	34.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	$100	50.0¢	Lost
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Yes	$388	74.2¢	Won
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$768	78.7¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	$106	26.4¢	Won
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$417	86.6¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	$425	82.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$541	53.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$22	36.0¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?	No	$117	58.5¢	Lost
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?	Yes	$113	54.5¢	Won
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$197	15.6¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	Yes	$130	71.9¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$1.3k	63.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$2.1k	72.7¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$356	71.2¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$54	53.7¢	Lost
Will New People (NL) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$32	32.0¢	Won

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$82 @ 20.0¢
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Won
Yes$225 @ 64.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$740 @ 46.4¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$369 @ 6.2¢
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 2.5¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$221 @ 41.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$1.9k @ 84.5¢
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 10.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$36 @ 35.7¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$748 @ 19.5¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$122 @ 61.0¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Won
No$65 @ 35.5¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$406 @ 67.7¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$143 @ 71.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$876 @ 43.8¢
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?Won
Yes$65 @ 32.5¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$87 @ 14.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$46 @ 42.1¢
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?Won
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?Won
Yes$645 @ 73.1¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$2.4k @ 80.0¢
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?Won
No$345 @ 86.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$747 @ 68.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$739 @ 70.4¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$35 @ 5.7¢
Will Nicklas Sandström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?Lost
Yes$39 @ 6.6¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$15 @ 67.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$21 @ 65.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$510 @ 85.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 34.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 50.0¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Won
Yes$388 @ 74.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Won
No$768 @ 78.7¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Won
No$106 @ 26.4¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$417 @ 86.6¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Won
Yes$425 @ 82.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$541 @ 53.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Won
Yes$22 @ 36.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?Lost
No$117 @ 58.5¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?Won
Yes$113 @ 54.5¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$197 @ 15.6¢
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?Won
Yes$130 @ 71.9¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 63.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 72.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$356 @ 71.2¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$54 @ 53.7¢
Will New People (NL) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$32 @ 32.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	Tech	No	$5.1k	97.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.5k	87.2¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$2.2k	66.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.5k	63.7¢
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$1.4k	43.9¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$1.3k	85.3¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Politics	No	$1.2k	90.7¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	57.5¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	83.0¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	69.0¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?	Tech	No	$1.0k	92.5¢
Will Henrik Fritzon be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?	Politics	Yes	$816	48.8¢
Will Carl Johan Sonesson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?	Politics	Yes	$801	48.0¢
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?	Politics	No	$770	83.5¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$768	42.5¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$736	40.6¢
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$667	43.4¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$646	78.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$635	80.9¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$626	51.0¢
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Politics	Yes	$610	40.5¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$585	83.6¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$576	82.2¢
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?	Politics	Yes	$570	59.4¢
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$544	86.6¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	Yes	$540	74.8¢
Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County?	Politics	Yes	$537	89.5¢
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$524	80.3¢
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Politics	Yes	$508	88.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$495	98.9¢

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?Tech
No$5.1k @ 97.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$2.5k @ 87.2¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$2.2k @ 66.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$1.5k @ 63.7¢
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$1.4k @ 43.9¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$1.3k @ 85.3¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Politics
No$1.2k @ 90.7¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 57.5¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 83.0¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 69.0¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?Tech
No$1.0k @ 92.5¢
Will Henrik Fritzon be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?Politics
Yes$816 @ 48.8¢
Will Carl Johan Sonesson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?Politics
Yes$801 @ 48.0¢
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?Politics
No$770 @ 83.5¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$768 @ 42.5¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$736 @ 40.6¢
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?Politics
Yes$667 @ 43.4¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$646 @ 78.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$635 @ 80.9¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$626 @ 51.0¢
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Politics
Yes$610 @ 40.5¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Politics
No$585 @ 83.6¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$576 @ 82.2¢
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?Politics
Yes$570 @ 59.4¢
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?Politics
Yes$544 @ 86.6¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
Yes$540 @ 74.8¢
Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County?Politics
Yes$537 @ 89.5¢
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$524 @ 80.3¢
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Politics
Yes$508 @ 88.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$495 @ 98.9¢