0xb7d4…6a1d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb7d4cc5ccb2958023a4c3d75aa7cff8fa5de6a1d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.5pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

54% @ 48.6¢

Brier

0.209

Resolved

492

Avg size

$14

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (72/122)	+10%	122
Politics	62% (21/34)	+7%	34
Sports	65% (11/17)	+3%	17
Tech	55% (6/11)	-2%	11
Economy	43% (3/7)	-7%	7
Science	100% (3/3)	+35%	3

Other122 bets
Hit rate
59% (72/122)
ROI
+10%
Politics34 bets
Hit rate
62% (21/34)
ROI
+7%
Sports17 bets
Hit rate
65% (11/17)
ROI
+3%
Tech11 bets
Hit rate
55% (6/11)
ROI
-2%
Economy7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-7%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+35%

Track record

60% hit · 116/194

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	No	$13	43.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	No	$29	5.5¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	$47	61.7¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will VfB Stuttgart win DFB-Pokal?	No	$86	85.4¢	Won
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3?	No	$8	36.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$11	37.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$151	65.7¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	$18	88.0¢	Won
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?	No	$102	33.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	No	$137	64.4¢	Lost
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	$17	60.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?	No	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	No	$7	13.4¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$46	30.7¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	$15	73.0¢	Lost
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	$12	7.8¢	Won
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?	No	$16	8.1¢	Lost
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	No	$14	86.0¢	Won
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	$7	13.0¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	$11	73.1¢	Won
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	No	$140	79.9¢	Won
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	No	$35	69.4¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$15	40.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	$12	61.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	$13	19.3¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	$22	72.0¢	Won
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	$8	15.0¢	Lost
Will Olympiacos win the 2025-26 Euroleague?	No	$16	22.4¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	$13	82.0¢	Won
Will Everton Blair Jr. be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	$64	34.4¢	Won
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?	No	$9	8.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 4?	No	$22	89.3¢	Won
Will KaBuM! IDL win CD 2026 Split 1?	No	$7	44.6¢	Won
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	No	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	$134	61.1¢	Won
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	No	$13	62.8¢	Lost
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?	No	$74	73.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	$297	48.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	No	$102	28.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	No	$106	52.3¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	$24	79.5¢	Won
Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?	No	$1	2.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	$312	50.5¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$49	80.5¢	Won
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?	No	$66	65.5¢	Won
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?	No	$16	32.0¢	Lost
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$41	82.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4?	No	$3	10.0¢	Won

Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Lost
No$13 @ 43.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?Lost
No$29 @ 5.5¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Won
No$47 @ 61.7¢
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 15.0¢
Will VfB Stuttgart win DFB-Pokal?Won
No$86 @ 85.4¢
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3?Won
No$8 @ 36.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$11 @ 37.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$151 @ 65.7¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Won
No$102 @ 33.1¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?Lost
No$137 @ 64.4¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Won
No$17 @ 60.0¢
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 3.1¢
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?Lost
No$7 @ 13.4¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$46 @ 30.7¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
No$15 @ 73.0¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
No$12 @ 7.8¢
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?Lost
No$16 @ 8.1¢
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?Won
No$14 @ 86.0¢
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Lost
No$7 @ 13.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Won
No$11 @ 73.1¢
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?Won
No$140 @ 79.9¢
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?Won
No$35 @ 69.4¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
No$15 @ 40.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Won
No$12 @ 61.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 19.3¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Won
No$22 @ 72.0¢
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Lost
No$8 @ 15.0¢
Will Olympiacos win the 2025-26 Euroleague?Lost
No$16 @ 22.4¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
No$13 @ 82.0¢
Will Everton Blair Jr. be the Democratic nominee for GA-13?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Won
No$64 @ 34.4¢
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?Lost
No$9 @ 8.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 4?Won
No$22 @ 89.3¢
Will KaBuM! IDL win CD 2026 Split 1?Won
No$7 @ 44.6¢
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?Lost
No$1 @ 14.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Won
No$134 @ 61.1¢
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
No$13 @ 62.8¢
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?Won
No$74 @ 73.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Lost
No$297 @ 48.5¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?Lost
No$102 @ 28.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?Won
No$106 @ 52.3¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
No$24 @ 79.5¢
Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?Lost
No$1 @ 2.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Won
No$312 @ 50.5¢
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$49 @ 80.5¢
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?Won
No$66 @ 65.5¢
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?Lost
No$16 @ 32.0¢
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
No$41 @ 82.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4?Won
No$3 @ 10.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Joshua Vasquez be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	Politics	Yes	$1	5.5¢
Will Charles Gambaro be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	Politics	Yes	$1	5.5¢
Will Ernest Audino be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	Politics	Yes	$1	5.5¢
Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	Politics	Yes	$1	5.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	7.7¢
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	Politics	Yes	$1	5.5¢
Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.6¢
Will Shas win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.6¢
Will Otzma Yehudit win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.6¢
Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader?	Politics	Yes	$0	1.6¢
Will Patty Murray be the next Senate Majority Leader?	Politics	Yes	$0	1.6¢
Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader?	Politics	Yes	$0	1.6¢
Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader?	Politics	Yes	$0	1.6¢
Will Alicia Bárcena be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	Other	Yes	$0	2.1¢
Will Kristalina Georgieva be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	Other	Yes	$0	2.1¢
Will David Choquehuanca be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	Other	Yes	$0	2.1¢
Will Mia Mottley be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	Other	Yes	$0	2.1¢
Will Colombe Cahen-Salvador be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	Other	Yes	$0	2.1¢
Will Vuk Jeremić be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	Other	Yes	$0	2.1¢
Will Amina Mohammed be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	Other	Yes	$0	2.1¢
Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	Other	Yes	$0	2.1¢
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	1.4¢
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	1.4¢
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	1.4¢
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	1.4¢
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	1.4¢
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	1.4¢
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	1.4¢
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	1.4¢
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	1.4¢

Will Joshua Vasquez be the Republican nominee for FL-06?Politics
Yes$1 @ 5.5¢
Will Charles Gambaro be the Republican nominee for FL-06?Politics
Yes$1 @ 5.5¢
Will Ernest Audino be the Republican nominee for FL-06?Politics
Yes$1 @ 5.5¢
Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06?Politics
Yes$1 @ 5.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 7.7¢
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?Politics
Yes$1 @ 5.5¢
Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
Will Shas win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
Will Otzma Yehudit win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader?Politics
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will Patty Murray be the next Senate Majority Leader?Politics
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader?Politics
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader?Politics
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Will Alicia Bárcena be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Other
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will Kristalina Georgieva be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Other
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will David Choquehuanca be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Other
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will Mia Mottley be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Other
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will Colombe Cahen-Salvador be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Other
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will Vuk Jeremić be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Other
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will Amina Mohammed be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Other
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Other
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢