0xb7c0…8ef2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb7c0bd12057027e37876e27f365a8fb335c18ef2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+16.8pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

71% @ 53.8¢

Brier

0.121

Resolved

146

Avg size

$12

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	53% (8/15)	-1%	15
Other	58% (7/12)	+7%	12
Economy	45% (5/11)	+15%	11
Geopolitics	88% (7/8)	+27%	8
Culture	50% (2/4)	-12%	4
Sports	67% (2/3)	-0%	3
Tech	100% (1/1)	+1%	1

Politics15 bets
Hit rate
53% (8/15)
ROI
-1%
Other12 bets
Hit rate
58% (7/12)
ROI
+7%
Economy11 bets
Hit rate
45% (5/11)
ROI
+15%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+27%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-12%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-0%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1%

Track record

59% hit · 32/54

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	No	$94	85.0¢	Won
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	$177	65.8¢	Won
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?	Yes	$16	79.0¢	Won
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.9% and 2.2%?	No	$3	60.0¢	Won
Laver Cup: Alexander Zverev vs Learner Tien	Learner Tien	$82	22.9¢	Lost
Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in May?	Yes	$15	54.4¢	Won
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in May?	Yes	$5	41.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$80	40.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$120	60.0¢	Won
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in May?	Yes	$190	67.9¢	Won
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?	Yes	$10	60.4¢	Won
Will "Fear" be in the headlines this week?	No	$13	43.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club 1 - 1 Al Nassr Saudi Club?	Yes	$25	13.6¢	Lost
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$48	24.0¢	Lost
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in May?	Yes	$31	21.9¢	Lost
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 28, 2026?	Yes	$35	70.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 24, 2026?	Yes	$28	71.0¢	Won
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	$2	3.8¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 25, 2026?	No	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?	No	$8	80.0¢	Won
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.9M and 7.0M in April?	Yes	$5	19.2¢	Lost
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?	Yes	$7	36.5¢	Lost
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw?	No	$137	77.6¢	Won
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	No	$6	32.0¢	Lost
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	$13	67.0¢	Won
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May?	Yes	$13	61.6¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	$26	43.7¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?	No	$16	16.0¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?	Yes	$113	83.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 18, 2026?	Yes	$40	80.4¢	Won
No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by October 15?	Yes	$36	46.4¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 27, 2026?	Yes	$14	68.0¢	Won
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	Yes	$5	39.0¢	Won
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$78	82.7¢	Won
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	Yes	$18	88.0¢	Won
Will “Hate That I Made You Love Me” by Ariana Grande win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	No	$14	70.0¢	Won
Will “Hate That I Made You Love Me” by Ariana Grande win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	$11	28.5¢	Lost
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%?	Yes	$9	56.3¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	Yes	$19	53.9¢	Won
Will "Supreme Court" be in the headlines this week?	Yes	$34	37.7¢	Lost
Will "Party" be in the headlines this week?	No	$22	72.0¢	Won
Will "Vote" or "Voter" or "Votes" be in the headlines this week?	Yes	$27	90.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	$43	95.1¢	Won
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	No	$901	99.5¢	Won
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	No	$18	93.9¢	Won
Will China PR vs. Turkmenistan end in a draw?	Yes	$430	97.5¢	Won
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	$1	74.0¢	Won

Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?Won
No$94 @ 85.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Won
Yes$177 @ 65.8¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?Won
Yes$16 @ 79.0¢
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.9% and 2.2%?Won
No$3 @ 60.0¢
Laver Cup: Alexander Zverev vs Learner TienLost
Learner Tien$82 @ 22.9¢
Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in May?Won
Yes$15 @ 54.4¢
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in May?Lost
Yes$5 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$80 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$120 @ 60.0¢
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in May?Won
Yes$190 @ 67.9¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?Won
Yes$10 @ 60.4¢
Will "Fear" be in the headlines this week?Lost
No$13 @ 43.0¢
Exact Score: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club 1 - 1 Al Nassr Saudi Club?Lost
Yes$25 @ 13.6¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$48 @ 24.0¢
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in May?Lost
Yes$31 @ 21.9¢
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 28, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 70.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 24, 2026?Won
Yes$28 @ 71.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Lost
No$2 @ 3.8¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 25, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 25.0¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?Won
No$8 @ 80.0¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.9M and 7.0M in April?Lost
Yes$5 @ 19.2¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?Lost
Yes$7 @ 36.5¢
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw?Won
No$137 @ 77.6¢
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Lost
No$6 @ 32.0¢
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Won
Yes$13 @ 67.0¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May?Won
Yes$13 @ 61.6¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Lost
No$26 @ 43.7¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?Lost
No$16 @ 16.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?Won
Yes$113 @ 83.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 18, 2026?Won
Yes$40 @ 80.4¢
No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by October 15?Won
Yes$36 @ 46.4¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 27, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 68.0¢
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Won
Yes$5 @ 39.0¢
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$78 @ 82.7¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?Won
Yes$18 @ 88.0¢
Will “Hate That I Made You Love Me” by Ariana Grande win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Won
No$14 @ 70.0¢
Will “Hate That I Made You Love Me” by Ariana Grande win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Lost
Yes$11 @ 28.5¢
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%?Won
Yes$9 @ 56.3¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Won
Yes$19 @ 53.9¢
Will "Supreme Court" be in the headlines this week?Lost
Yes$34 @ 37.7¢
Will "Party" be in the headlines this week?Won
No$22 @ 72.0¢
Will "Vote" or "Voter" or "Votes" be in the headlines this week?Lost
Yes$27 @ 90.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?Won
No$43 @ 95.1¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?Won
No$901 @ 99.5¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Won
No$18 @ 93.9¢
Will China PR vs. Turkmenistan end in a draw?Won
Yes$430 @ 97.5¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 74.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$130	93.0¢
Plague case in US by December 31?	Science	No	$106	88.0¢
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	76.0¢
Plague pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$29	95.8¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$28	47.6¢
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$18	91.6¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$18	88.0¢
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$12	60.3¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York be between 5,500,000 and 6,000,000?	Politics	No	$11	57.0¢
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	34.4¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KS-01 House election by 25%-30%?	Politics	Yes	$11	30.0¢
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$7	60.0¢
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$6	76.0¢
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	26.0¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$5	24.0¢
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4	47.7¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 3.0 and 3.4% in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$2	10.9¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$2	10.2¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$0	1.1¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 3.5 and 3.9% in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$0	0.9¢
Will Umraniyespor win on 2026-10-14?	—	Yes	$0	0.1¢

Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?Geopolitics
No$130 @ 93.0¢
Plague case in US by December 31?Science
No$106 @ 88.0¢
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 76.0¢
Plague pandemic in 2026?Science
No$29 @ 95.8¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?Economy
Yes$28 @ 47.6¢
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 91.6¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?Economy
Yes$12 @ 60.3¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York be between 5,500,000 and 6,000,000?Politics
No$11 @ 57.0¢
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 34.4¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KS-01 House election by 25%-30%?Politics
Yes$11 @ 30.0¢
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 60.0¢
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 76.0¢
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 26.0¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?Economy
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 47.7¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 3.0 and 3.4% in 2026?Economy
Yes$2 @ 10.9¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026?Economy
Yes$2 @ 10.2¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?Economy
Yes$0 @ 1.1¢
Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 3.5 and 3.9% in 2026?Economy
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will Umraniyespor win on 2026-10-14?—
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢