0xb760…ccd7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb7606d0d3719c88f9b868a13015881af5222ccd7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

47% @ 41.4¢

Brier

0.155

Resolved

421

Avg size

$267

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (38/82)	+16%	82
Politics	31% (14/45)	-5%	45
Geopolitics	33% (3/9)	+120%	9
Tech	50% (4/8)	-39%	8
Sports	100% (1/1)	+426%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+415%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other82 bets
Hit rate
46% (38/82)
ROI
+16%
Politics45 bets
Hit rate
31% (14/45)
ROI
-5%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
+120%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-39%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+426%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+415%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

41% hit · 61/148

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?	No	$548	54.1¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$616	51.3¢	Won
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?	No	$953	77.1¢	Won
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	Yes	$296	26.9¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$183	27.6¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	$1.8k	60.0¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$203	5.2¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.0k	16.7¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$1.7k	21.0¢	Lost
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?	Yes	$514	64.6¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?	No	$40	77.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$406	2.0¢	Lost
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$1.9k	49.5¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$856	39.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$596	78.8¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$190	19.0¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?	Yes	$91	8.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$497	23.9¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	56.2¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	No	$214	53.5¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$118	59.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$2.8k	80.6¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$446	8.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$727	70.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$1.5k	5.0¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?	Yes	$50	5.0¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	$254	30.0¢	Won
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$116	54.2¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?	Yes	$17	8.1¢	Lost
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	No	$148	59.0¢	Won
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026?	No	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	No	$1.3k	28.9¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$64	5.3¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$2.3k	66.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$37	14.2¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$395	79.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$621	28.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$736	26.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$6.3k	51.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$2.8k	82.5¢	Won
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?	Yes	$510	68.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$198	74.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	24.6¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$197	34.8¢	Lost
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$357	79.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$883	10.6¢	Lost
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?	Yes	$55	55.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$697	67.0¢	Won
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$13	13.0¢	Lost

Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?Won
No$548 @ 54.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$616 @ 51.3¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?Won
No$953 @ 77.1¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Won
Yes$296 @ 26.9¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$183 @ 27.6¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 60.0¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$203 @ 5.2¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.0k @ 16.7¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$1.7k @ 21.0¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?Won
Yes$514 @ 64.6¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?Won
No$40 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$406 @ 2.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 49.5¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$856 @ 39.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$596 @ 78.8¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$190 @ 19.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?Lost
Yes$91 @ 8.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$497 @ 23.9¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 56.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?Won
No$214 @ 53.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$118 @ 59.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$2.8k @ 80.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$446 @ 8.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$727 @ 70.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 5.0¢
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?Lost
Yes$50 @ 5.0¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Won
No$254 @ 30.0¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$116 @ 54.2¢
Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?Lost
Yes$17 @ 8.1¢
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?Won
No$148 @ 59.0¢
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 14.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?Won
No$1.3k @ 28.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$64 @ 5.3¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 66.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 14.2¢
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
No$395 @ 79.0¢
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
Yes$621 @ 28.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$736 @ 26.6¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$6.3k @ 51.0¢
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$2.8k @ 82.5¢
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?Lost
Yes$510 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$198 @ 74.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 24.6¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$197 @ 34.8¢
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$357 @ 79.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$883 @ 10.6¢
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?Lost
Yes$55 @ 55.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$697 @ 67.0¢
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$13 @ 13.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$3.4k	87.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	No	$2.3k	50.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	99.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	14.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	15.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$983	29.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$623	10.4¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$556	53.0¢
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$500	50.0¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$471	41.0¢
Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Politics	Yes	$409	63.3¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$400	20.0¢
Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$352	39.2¢
Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Politics	No	$293	62.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$250	2.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$225	9.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$200	20.0¢
Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Politics	Yes	$181	28.0¢
Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?	Science	No	$177	90.0¢
Tropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?	Science	No	$165	50.0¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$152	93.3¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$131	26.2¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Sports	Yes	$121	40.8¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 260M by September 25, 2026?	Politics	No	$107	99.2¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?	—	Yes	$79	8.6¢
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?	Science	No	$78	8.1¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Politics	No	$75	52.8¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?	Politics	No	$68	63.2¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?	Politics	No	$56	24.5¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?	Politics	No	$54	75.0¢

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$3.4k @ 87.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
No$2.3k @ 50.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 99.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 14.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 15.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$983 @ 29.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$623 @ 10.4¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
No$556 @ 53.0¢
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?Politics
Yes$500 @ 50.0¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$471 @ 41.0¢
Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Politics
Yes$409 @ 63.3¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$400 @ 20.0¢
Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?Politics
Yes$352 @ 39.2¢
Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?Politics
No$293 @ 62.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$250 @ 2.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Politics
Yes$225 @ 9.0¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$200 @ 20.0¢
Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Politics
Yes$181 @ 28.0¢
Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?Science
No$177 @ 90.0¢
Tropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?Science
No$165 @ 50.0¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$152 @ 93.3¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$131 @ 26.2¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
Yes$121 @ 40.8¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 260M by September 25, 2026?Politics
No$107 @ 99.2¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?—
Yes$79 @ 8.6¢
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?Science
No$78 @ 8.1¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Politics
No$75 @ 52.8¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
No$68 @ 63.2¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
No$56 @ 24.5¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?Politics
No$54 @ 75.0¢