0xb760…ccd7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb7606d0d3719c88f9b868a13015881af5222ccd7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.6pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

45% @ 41.5¢

Brier

0.159

Resolved

1932

Avg size

$126

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (264/617)	+16%	617
Politics	39% (36/92)	+0%	92
Geopolitics	36% (5/14)	+69%	14
Tech	36% (4/11)	-55%	11
Science	75% (6/8)	+26%	8
Culture	33% (1/3)	-99%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+142%	3
Economy	50% (1/2)	-57%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+426%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other617 bets
Hit rate
43% (264/617)
ROI
+16%
Politics92 bets
Hit rate
39% (36/92)
ROI
+0%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
36% (5/14)
ROI
+69%
Tech11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
-55%
Science8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+26%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-99%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+142%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-57%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+426%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

43% hit · 320/752

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 30, 2026?	Yes	$38	95.0¢	Won
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 15, 2026?	Yes	$90	89.2¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$43	8.0¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	Yes	$55	69.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	$2.3k	50.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	$3.4k	87.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	$719	41.6¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	15.4¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	$1.7k	86.2¢	Won
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	$114	3.2¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$250	2.5¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$264	65.9¢	Won
Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	$381	39.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$355	16.0¢	Lost
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	Hike 25 bps	$112	31.9¢	Lost
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?	No change	$59	79.4¢	Won
Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?	Yes	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1.4k	69.0¢	Lost
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?	Yes	$122	10.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?	Yes	$2	36.0¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 1-2 times in March?	No	$243	86.1¢	Won
Will Claude go down 1-2 times in March?	Yes	$44	2.1¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$234	13.0¢	Lost
North Korea missile test by September 15?	Yes	$56	18.7¢	Lost
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	$284	70.0¢	Won
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?	No	$3	14.0¢	Won
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?	Yes	$34	21.0¢	Lost
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?	No	$34	27.0¢	Won
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?	Yes	$32	32.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$101	7.5¢	Lost
French election called by October 10?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?	Yes	$40	89.0¢	Won
Will Keir Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?	Yes	$64	63.5¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$2	21.0¢	Lost
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?	Yes	$33	11.1¢	Lost
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?	No	$300	30.0¢	Lost
ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$506	62.6¢	Won
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?	No	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?	No	$548	54.1¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$616	51.3¢	Won
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-7 be between 20,000,000 and 22,000,000?	No	$12	89.0¢	Won
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?	No	$953	77.1¢	Won
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?	No	$127	46.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$123	25.2¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	$371	29.9¢	Lost
Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by October 31?	Yes	$3	50.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $112K in August?	No	$3	2.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$50	9.0¢	Lost
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	Yes	$296	26.9¢	Won

Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 30, 2026?Won
Yes$38 @ 95.0¢
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 15, 2026?Won
Yes$90 @ 89.2¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$43 @ 8.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$55 @ 69.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseLost
No$2.3k @ 50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseWon
No$3.4k @ 87.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Lost
No$719 @ 41.6¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 15.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Won
No$1.7k @ 86.2¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Lost
Yes$114 @ 3.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$250 @ 2.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$264 @ 65.9¢
Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Lost
Yes$381 @ 39.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$355 @ 16.0¢
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?Lost
Hike 25 bps$112 @ 31.9¢
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?Won
No change$59 @ 79.4¢
Will Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 69.0¢
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?Lost
Yes$122 @ 10.7¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
Will Claude go down 1-2 times in March?Won
No$243 @ 86.1¢
Will Claude go down 1-2 times in March?Lost
Yes$44 @ 2.1¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$234 @ 13.0¢
North Korea missile test by September 15?Lost
Yes$56 @ 18.7¢
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?Won
No$284 @ 70.0¢
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?Won
No$3 @ 14.0¢
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?Lost
Yes$34 @ 21.0¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?Won
No$34 @ 27.0¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$32 @ 32.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$101 @ 7.5¢
French election called by October 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Won
Yes$40 @ 89.0¢
Will Keir Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Won
Yes$64 @ 63.5¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 21.0¢
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Lost
Yes$33 @ 11.1¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?Lost
No$300 @ 30.0¢
ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$506 @ 62.6¢
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?Lost
No$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?Won
No$548 @ 54.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$616 @ 51.3¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-7 be between 20,000,000 and 22,000,000?Won
No$12 @ 89.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?Won
No$953 @ 77.1¢
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?Won
No$127 @ 46.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$123 @ 25.2¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
Yes$371 @ 29.9¢
Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by October 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $112K in August?Lost
No$3 @ 2.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$50 @ 9.0¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Won
Yes$296 @ 26.9¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$4.6k	86.7¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	60.8¢
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Politics	No	$895	85.0¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Politics	No	$809	81.4¢
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$672	78.3¢
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$409	28.1¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Politics	Yes	$373	77.3¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Politics	Yes	$282	25.2¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Politics	Yes	$238	87.6¢
US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Politics	No	$236	30.6¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$235	63.7¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$200	20.0¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Sports	Yes	$121	40.8¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$91	91.0¢
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$90	89.2¢
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?	Science	No	$78	8.1¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?	Politics	No	$68	63.2¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?	Politics	No	$56	24.5¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$43	8.0¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Politics	Yes	$40	30.0¢
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$38	95.0¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$26	11.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$24	6.9¢
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$22	3.0¢
Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Science	Yes	$20	33.0¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?	Politics	No	$18	75.0¢
James Norton announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$8	0.3¢
James Collier announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$4	0.3¢
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3	5.0¢
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Science	Yes	$2	24.0¢

US imports Russian diesel by December 31?Politics
Yes$4.6k @ 86.7¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 60.8¢
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?Politics
No$895 @ 85.0¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of October 2026?Politics
No$809 @ 81.4¢
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?Geopolitics
No$672 @ 78.3¢
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?Politics
Yes$409 @ 28.1¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of October 2026?Politics
Yes$373 @ 77.3¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?Politics
Yes$282 @ 25.2¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of October 2026?Politics
Yes$238 @ 87.6¢
US imports Russian diesel by November 15?Politics
No$236 @ 30.6¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$235 @ 63.7¢
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$200 @ 20.0¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
Yes$121 @ 40.8¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$91 @ 91.0¢
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$90 @ 89.2¢
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?Science
No$78 @ 8.1¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
No$68 @ 63.2¢
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?Politics
No$56 @ 24.5¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$43 @ 8.0¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?Politics
Yes$40 @ 30.0¢
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$38 @ 95.0¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$26 @ 11.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$24 @ 6.9¢
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?Politics
Yes$22 @ 3.0¢
Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?Science
Yes$20 @ 33.0¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?Politics
No$18 @ 75.0¢
James Norton announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$8 @ 0.3¢
James Collier announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$4 @ 0.3¢
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?Politics
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Science
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢